Outlook

UK Economy Heads for Slowdown After ‘Goldilocks’ First Half

  • Outlook underpins forecasts for gradual interest rate cuts
  • Keir Starmer steps closer to pledges for best growth in G-7

The BOE is skeptical the current pace of growth can last, noting that business surveys suggested that the underlying pace of the economy was weaker than the GDP figures indicate.

Photographer: Jose Sarmento Matos/Bloomberg

Britain’s economy is enjoying a “Goldilocks moment” with slowing inflation, rising employment and healthy growth that’s likely to set the stage for a more comfortable backdrop both for the Bank of England and Keir Starmer’s government.

A strong performance in the second quarter meant the UK enjoyed the best growth in the Group of Seven nations in the first half of 2024, outstripping the US and well ahead of other European countries. Official data this week also showed that workers were hired at the quickest pace since November, reducing the jobless rate, while inflation rose less than expected.