1. Silicon Valley has been turning red 2. MAGA discourse has been increasingly dominated by a few tech moguls
Now the thing with moguls is they are extreme outliers, who do not understand they are outliers.
Overall, you can expect tech moguls to have much, much higher level of reasoning abilities compared to the political/administrative class. But this comes at a cost. Their capacities for understanding the Other (masses count as the “Other”) are much poorer.
E.g. Putin is much, much less of an outlier in terms of intelligence compared to Thiel. He is much more average. At the same time, I am positively convinced that Putin understands the masses and works with masses much better.
Putin understands: when you go fishing you think of what the fish likes, not what you like. You may prefer blueberries, but fish likes worms. So you take worms, not the blueberries.
I am not sure Thiel (or others) understand that
E.g. Putin is highly critical of Lenin and the early Bolsheviks (who destroyed the unity of Russia), while holding much more positive view of Stalin (who restored it). But Lenin’s cult is so deeply woven into the culture (esp. for the elderly) that Putin chooses not to fight it
Time after time, at nearly every big meeting he makes negative remarks about Lenin (for federalizing and autonomizing Russia). At the same time, he does nothing to fight his cult. Actually, in Donbass Russian authorities restore Lenin’s monuments, rename streets after Lenin, etc
So, Putin strongly dislikes Lenin and his legacy. But the Russian state does nothing to fight his cult. It actually expands and buttresses it whenever convenient. Why? Because it goes well for the population. For them, Lenin is just an element of generic patriotism & nostalgia
To put it simply, Putin sees Lenin as “bad”, destructive and anti-patriotic. But Putin’s support base, the elderly, are used to see him as “good”, constructive and patriotic. And they are not going to change their opinion. They will hold their beliefs & prejudices till death.
So, if Putin started “Lenin bad” campaign (based on what he actually thinks), the only thing he would achieve is confusing and disorienting his own supporters. That’s why he is not doing that.
He doesn’t fight Lenin’s cult. He is actually doing the opposite. In his conquest in Ukraine, he is harnessing and exploiting said cult, rallying the people around it, appealing to the Lenin’s name and legitimacy. Why? Because it works.
For Putin, Stalin > Lenin
But for internal propaganda purposes, Lenin works better. He is much less divisive, more unobjectionable. There are relatively few genuine haters.
Putin is such a hater. But, when he goes fishing, he thinks of what the fish likes. So Lenin it is.
Thinking of what you like vs Thinking of what the fish likes
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One problem with that is that too much of the supply chain for drone production is located in China. The thing with drones is that they grew out of toys industry. Cheap plastic & electronic crap that all of a sudden got military significance
That is also the major problem I have with "China supports Russia" argument. China could wreck Ukraine easily, simply obstructing & delaying the drone/drone components shipments. That would be an instant military collapse for Ukraine.
Both Russian and Ukrainian drone industries are totally dependent upon the continuous shipments from China. To a very significant degree, their "production" is assembly from the Chinese components which are non alternative and cannot be substituted with anything else (as cheap).
No, Israel being a republic causes it to be more barbaric towards the conquered population than Russia, and with no escape. There is simply no room and no possibility for any sort of integration whatsoever.
Were Israelis slaves to a Big Man, integration would be conceivable.
Crawling on the knees before your Big Man is Lindy
Scaleable, manageable, robust
Every nation on earth will concede to it, after the sufficient amount of sticks (and may be some carrots, but that is optional). Which makes it very, very scaleable
In contrast, crawling on the knees before an other nation is not Lindy. No people on the earth will ever accept it, no matter the degree of violence applied.
That's why republican dominion over the disenfranchised colonial periphery is always so fragile. Not scaleable at all.
Today I will introduce one more concept critical for understanding of how the manufacturing industry has evolved over the last few decades. It is the shift of technological knowledge from esoteric to exoteric
In the pre-digital era, manufacturing used to be mysterious, esoteric
To visualize how the manufacturing worked in the pre-computer/early computer age, imagine the atmosphere of magic, mysticism, enigma. That would be not very far from truth.
To illustrate the idea, I will give you one simple, straightforward example. The train car production.
Train production is a very, very rare example of a Russian machinery industry that survived through the post-Soviet collapse. Of course, it contracted. Of course, it suffered losses. Still, it made it through, while most of the Soviet machinery sector was simply wiped out.
As I have already pointed out, general audience, analysts, strategists & decision makers included holds unrealistic notions of how the global economy is organised. Now that is because they never see the back end of industrial civilisation
So let me show you some
There is a major delusion of seeing Europe as a sort of retired continent that "lags in tech" or even "doesn't produce anything". To some extent, it is just American hubris.
But there is more in there than just hubris. There is also some honest, sincere ignorance. The thing with most people is that they see only facade of industrial civilisation. They never ever had a chance to look behind the curtains
Tu-160M, the "White Swan" is the largest, the heaviest and the fastest bomber in the world. Originally a Soviet design, the plane you see today has limited continuity with the USSR. It was created in late 2010s, as a combined project of Putin's Russia and Siemens Digital Factory
Original Tu-160 was created as a domesday weapon of the Cold War. Designed in the 1970s, it was officially launched into production in 1984. And yet, with the collapse of the Soviet Union the project was aborted. In 1992, their production ceased.
No Nuclear War, no White Swans.
With the fall of USSR, Russia suffered a catastrophic drop in military expenditures. As the state was buying little weaponry (and paying for it highly erratically), entire production chains were wiped out. That included some ultra expensive projects such as strategic bombers.
I have repeatedly pointed out that the modern Russian military industry has little continuity with the Soviet one. Destroyed in the 1990s, it was effectively created anew in the Putin's era. Still, it may sound too abstract, so I will zoom in on one specific example:
Stankomash
Located in Chelyabink, Stankomash industrial park hosts major producers for the nuclear, shipbuilding, oil & gas and energy industries. It also produces weaponry, including mine trawls and artillery ammunition (based on the open sources)
All under the umbrella of Konar company
Some examples of the Stankomash manufacture. These photos well illustrate the philosophy of Soviet/Russian dual use industry. In the peace time, you focus primarily on civilian products, in the war time you convert it all to the production of weaponry.