TOKYO -- As U.S. President Joe Biden has abandoned his quest for a second term, the Democratic Party is scrambling for a new strategy for the Nov. 5 presidential election. With just over three months remaining until the vote, former President Donald Trump is reveling in renewed momentum for his campaign.
As the world is captivated by the race, Trump's comments about Taiwan have caused a stir. In an interview with Bloomberg published July 16, Trump said Taiwan had captured "almost 100%" of the U.S. semiconductor industry, adding the island should pay the U.S. for defending it from China.
He also said that while Taiwan is "9,500 miles away" from the U.S., it is only "68 miles away from China," within artillery range.
Indeed, Taiwan makes roughly 90% of the world's advanced computer chips. Trump's remarks, not for the first time, showed dissatisfaction with this fact. It is also indisputable that defending Taiwan, far from U.S. shores, poses significant challenges and costs for Washington.
Even so, the former president's remarks are unsettling because they raise doubts about a future Trump administration's commitment to defend the self-ruled island in the event of a security crisis.
Beijing must have been delighted by his comments. In a display of satisfaction that may reflect the views of the Chinese leadership, the online version of the Global Times, a tabloid affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, said in its July 17 edition that Trump's remarks have exposed "the so-called U.S. commitment to Taiwan as an empty promise."
Then U.S. President Donald Trump, left, greets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Osaka in June 2019: Trump worked to smooth ruffled feathers in Beijing soon after his election. © Reuters If Trump continues to air such views, China may become more assertive in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea, escalating tensions in Asia.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the U.S. is committed to supporting Taiwan's self-defense capabilities, and has provided it with arms to that end. Since assuming office in January 2021, Biden has warned Beijing on four occasions that if China invades Taiwan, the U.S. will defend the island.
The question is whether Trump's seeming reluctance to come to Taiwan's aid reflects his genuine feelings or is merely political maneuvering. Episodes from his previous administration suggest the former is more likely. It all seems to have started in December 2016, a month before Trump's inauguration, when he called then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.
China was incensed by this breach of precedent. Since Washington severed formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979, there is no public record of a U.S. president-elect or president having spoken by telephone with a Taiwanese counterpart.
The phone call incurred Beijing's wrath because Chinese leaders viewed it as a violation of the "One China" policy. China refused to arrange a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, even after the U.S. leader was sworn in the following month.
According to a former Trump administration official, Trump was surprised by the Chinese reaction and quickly moved to patch up the relationship. On Feb. 8, he sent a letter to Xi stating he looked forward to working with the Chinese leader to "develop a constructive relationship" that would benefit both countries.
Two days later, Xi agreed to speak with Trump, who promised to respect the "One China" policy. With these fence-mending actions, Trump managed to ease tensions and resolve the situation. Trump thereafter began to distance himself from the Taiwan issue, seeing it as a diplomatic minefield, according to several U.S. diplomatic sources.
Yet his administration never ceased to push pro-Taiwan policies, including the sale of 66 F-16 fighter jets and dispatching the highest-ranking officials in recent history to the island.
These actions were mostly led by Trump's advisers like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Matt Pottinger, a China expert and former deputy national security adviser. Both aides were vocal champions of a hard-line stance toward Beijing. Trump appeared to have approved arms sales to Taiwan and visits by high-ranking U.S. officials, so long as these actions did not hinder trade and other talks with China.
Which way will U.S.-China relations move if Trump returns to the White House?
The former president is clearly still angry at China, which he blames for the COVID-19 pandemic and significantly harming the U.S. During his speech at the Republican National Convention on July 18, he referred to COVID-19 as the "China virus."
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te speaks at the annual convention of his Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei on July 21. © Kyodo This suggests that if reelected, Trump might adopt a tougher stance toward China and potentially alter his approach to the Taiwan issue. There are three possible scenarios.
Under the first scenario, Trump will try to bolster Taiwan's self-defense capabilities through accelerated arms sales and other means. This becomes more likely if former national security adviser Robert O'Brien and other anti-China hardliners assume key positions in a second Trump administration.
Alternatively, Trump might use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from China in trade and high-tech talks. The Trump White House could initially increase support to Taiwan to pressure Beijing, but might quickly scale it back once its objectives are met, and faced with mounting Chinese opposition. This approach suggests the U.S. would use the issue as a tool to achieve its policy objectives, with undesirable security implications for Asia.
A final possibility is that Trump would seek to strike a balance between these two options by pursuing a middle path. He may tolerate hardliners in his administration pushing for increased support to Taiwan, within certain limits, as he did during his first term.
Various factors will influence Trump's decisions, including internal power dynamics within the new administration and how China responds. Ultimately, it will be up to Trump to determine his own course if he is elected to a second term.
In any case, it will be crucial for U.S. allies to continue emphasizing to Trump the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait through as many channels as possible.
