Gold prices rise as cooler U.S. jobs data builds case for sooner Fed rate cut

monsitj/iStock via Getty Images

Gold futures extended recent gains to jump to six-week highs Friday, as the June jobs report that showed an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1% was seen as a sign that high interest rates are slowing down the economy.

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t
tlinz50
06 Jul. 2024, 3:08 PM
I think u mean Silver finished up 2.7% to $31.06 not $2.15. Just a tad off.
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blenkep
06 Jul. 2024, 9:57 AM
If gold prices increase with lower rates why wasn’t gold worth more 2 years ago when we had zero interest rates? There are actually valid reasons as to how the price of gold is determined why not focus on real catalysts?
M
@blenkep - do we really need to know which snowflake caused the avalanche? It’s a confluence of many things.

Much more to come - this Gold Bull is young.
bluescorpion0 profile picture
bluescorpion0
07 Jul. 2024, 3:26 AM
@Miners to the Moon or rather people have no clue what they're talking about.
k
katmandu100
06 Jul. 2024, 7:50 AM
Interesting info.
W
I guess a fake 2%ish will have to do
Value Digger profile picture
Additionally, Geodrill's CEO and largest shareholder David Harper recently increased his stake in GEODF, as shown below:

simplywall.st/...
Value Digger profile picture
When it comes to the gold sector, underfollowed Geodrill (GEO on the Toronto board, GEODF in the US) recently announced excellent Q1 2024 results, while also being very cheap.

Specifically, GEODF announced strong sequential Revenue and EBITDA growth coupled with bright outlook including more rigs compared to prior year period, as shown below:

www.newswire.ca/...

So Revenue and EBITDA in 2024 are expected to exceed $140 million and $30 million, respectively (in USD).

Meanwhile, its Enterprise Value currently is only about $75 million (in USD).

After all, its current Enterpise Value is only 0.5 times its revenue and 2.5 times its EBITDA.
S
Sane Man
06 Jul. 2024, 6:57 AM
My bet is the long-overdue recession has already started and the Fed will wait too long! Fixed income is the place to be. Avoid BDCs and lower quality corporate credit.
Value Digger profile picture
@Sane Man Avoid the leveraged stocks (indebted) too.
d
dynx
06 Jul. 2024, 1:22 AM
These headlines should all read: gold rises in anticipation of an erroneous fed cut and increased inflation.
b
blenkep
06 Jul. 2024, 9:58 AM
@dynx apparently few people agree with that ‘analysis’ and consequently it was not pursued.
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dynx
06 Jul. 2024, 12:55 PM
@blenkep indeed.
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webchow
05 Jul. 2024, 9:16 PM
So many heavy in the market because of an anticipated fed rate cut. We're at all time highs. What exactly do they think will happen from here?
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PatrickLeMay
06 Jul. 2024, 12:34 AM
@webchow probably expecting what has happened in all other all time highs. New all time highs.
G
@webchow This is what the media prints. Just a few stocks are at all-time highs, the megas. What about small-caps? Mid-caps? Large caps? Agriculture? Recreational? Regional banks? Health insurers? Utilities? Industrials?
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Sane Man
06 Jul. 2024, 6:53 AM
@Gentleman Argentum retirees with diversified investments are not even close to equaling the 2021 highs in their accounts—REITs -utilities-healthcare-small cap-intl all down—and fixed income down too.
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Kernal Ron
05 Jul. 2024, 8:13 PM
Hi ho SILVER! PAAS and AGQ looking great!
M
@Kernal Ron - welcome back, Ron! Where do you see PAAS in the next 12-months? HL? SILJ? WPM?

All of Seeking Alpha breathlessly await your reply.

*Discl. - I own all 4.
bluescorpion0 profile picture
bluescorpion0
05 Jul. 2024, 7:34 PM
Stagflation is good for gold
M
@bluescorpion0 - bingo, see the 1970’s.
Agbug profile picture
Agbug
05 Jul. 2024, 6:37 PM
The stars seem to be aligned in gold and silvers favor as global deficits and tensions rise. We aren't even Keynesians now, but rather something even he didn't envision with deficit driven economic growth.

My outsized bet in $GDXY paid off today with a $.79xx dividend and near 50% recovery on the capital loss associated with it in todays abbreviated trade. I just can't do miners anymore and will take the money up front with this one until it no longer seems advantageous. When that might be is anyone's guess.
G
@Agbug My bet is on miners, because gold is finally catching up with the inflation that hiked miner costs. Inflation has stabilized, and yet gold is up, and if you look at the gold reserves for miners like GOLD and NEM, it looks pretty good for the future, they are primed and set for a few years yet to come. Dangers to this outlook would be world peace and brotherly love.
Agbug profile picture
Agbug
06 Jul. 2024, 8:35 AM
@Gentleman Argentum , I hope you're right as my play is dependent on yours doing well. Having been disappointed by miners too many times, I chose this route. I couldn't pass up deploying ~3% of my portfolio to increase its yield by 15% - for now. If it faulters, I'll just dump it without the risk of individual miners' execution, jurisdictional risk, resource depletion, or environmental or safety catastrophes. Best of luck to all of us.
Matt2h profile picture
Matt2h
05 Jul. 2024, 6:08 PM
Comments (40)
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Was no one listening when the Fed said they see inflation remaining above their 2% target rate until late 2025?
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dandroidz
05 Jul. 2024, 10:32 PM
@Matt2h the market has dovish blinders on.
G
@Matt2h If gold does well with no rate cuts, you just wonder how it will do later
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Mr Nobodi
06 Jul. 2024, 4:47 AM
@Matt2h They are not going to wait until it reaches 2 percent to start cuts. If rates are still at 5 percent when inflation is at 2 percent we would be heading into deflation territory. Nobody in power wants deflation. The fed just needs to see continuing disinflation. Disinflation hit a pause earlier this year, but now appears to be resuming.