Trust the Evidence

Share this post

John Snow, Asiatic Cholera and the inductive-deductive method - republished

trusttheevidence.substack.com

John Snow, Asiatic Cholera and the inductive-deductive method - republished

Lecture 11: The Broad Street outbreak

Tom Jefferson
and
Carl Heneghan
Jul 18, 2024
24
Share this post

John Snow, Asiatic Cholera and the inductive-deductive method - republished

trusttheevidence.substack.com
9
Share

The Snow series is an educational course. We hope you will recognise our efforts by donating to TTE or becoming a paying subscriber, as writing the series took a lot of time and effort.

To support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

As Snow and his assistant were busy looking at water provision in South London, news reached him of a terrible cholera outbreak in the neighbourhood of Golden Square, Soho, central London. This had started in the night between 31 August and 1 September 1854. In the end, it would claim around 600 lives.

Golden Square was not far from Snow’s home on Sackville Street, and he rushed to the scene. He found a situation which he describes as reminiscent of Europe after the Black Death. Empty streets, boarded houses, and the few remaining people barricaded in their homes for fear of contracting cholera.

Scenery aside, this situation posed a real problem for Snow. It had characteristics similar to the Horsleydown outbreak and countless others he had collected data on, and he could reconstruct the denominator when the outbreak had subsided. It was relatively easy to find out how many lodgers lived and where in the neighbourhood because they either paid rent or owned their homes.    

The problem was different. The problem was finding a stable or credible numerator. Who lived where in the neighbourhood and died? Some would have died at home, sure. Others would have fled the place, had symptoms and died elsewhere; others would have been taken to the Middlesex and other local hospitals.

William Farr gave access to the death certificates, but Snow did his usual investigation. He knocked on doors and asked how many had been living in the house, how many were ill, and how many had died. After going door to door, he then visited nearby hospitals.

He could estimate the deaths as the epidemic abated and produced one of the most iconic maps ever. Ignoring the time being the denominator, he used what looks like a tourist plan of central London (but was made for Snow by the firm of Chaffins) and plotted all the pumps in the neighbourhood of Golden Square. Then, he drew a black bar for each death in each location and noticed a few peculiarities. 

He described the map thus: “Showing the deaths from cholera in Broad Street and the neighborhood 19th August – 30 September 1854. A black mark or bar for each death is placed in the situation of the house in which the fatal attack had ocurred”.

Here is his explanation of the map boundaries from On the Mode of Communication of Cholera. 2nd edition (MCC2):

To help with interpretation, here is a close-up of the Broad Street area from the same map:

To help him and his readers understand, he plotted the number of deaths in relation to the pumps in the area. But can you spot any other unusual features in the visual data?

The following picture is a reconstruction of the pump near the original spot in what is now Broadwick Street:

Note the missing handle or stirrup.

CONTEMPORARY THEMES

Snow’s was one of three maps of the outbreak drawn after it ended (see Lecture 18), but he was the only one showing all the pumps in the area. He could show the space outcome relationship because he was not encumbered by the baggage and obsession with certainty that Victorian and modern-day miasmatists carry.

Readings

Koch T. The Map as Intent: Variations on the Theme of John Snow. Cartographica 2004; 39(4). https://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow/cartographica39(4)1_14_2004.pdf

Tufte, E.R. 1983. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.

Thank you for reading Trust the Evidence. This post is public, so feel free to share it.

Share

Subscribe to Trust the Evidence

Hundreds of paid subscribers

Informing health decisions by separating evidence from opinion

24 Likes
·
3 Restacks
24
Share this post

John Snow, Asiatic Cholera and the inductive-deductive method - republished

trusttheevidence.substack.com
9
Share
9 Comments
Tom Jefferson
Jul 18Author

Have patience Vivian, the next episode will introduce Mr Huggins.

Best, Tom

Expand full comment
Like (1)
Reply
Share
Vivian Evans
Vivian’s Substack: Occasional R…
Jul 18

Again I'm enthralled by the maps. One can grasp why John Snow reminisced about Europe after the Black death. One item puzzled me: there's a Brewery at Broad Street/New Street. Where did they get their water from? Was this even operating during the outbreak?

And then there's the one question again which deserves investigation: why did those others (how many?) living cheek-to-yowl in this area not die, given that the environmental conditions were the same as were, presumably, the economic (poverty) conditions and their general health.

Expand full comment
Like (3)
Reply
Share
4 replies
7 more comments...
HRH The Princess of Wales
We offer our support.
Mar 24 • 
Tom Jefferson
227
Share this post

HRH The Princess of Wales

trusttheevidence.substack.com
24
The Lockdown files message is clear: we must never again suppress democracy by giving power to power-hungry people.
Read the piece on the Sunday Express and Sir Graham Brady MP’s comment
Mar 5, 2023 • 
Carl Heneghan
 and 
Tom Jefferson
215
Share this post

The Lockdown files message is clear: we must never again suppress democracy by giving power to power-hungry people.

trusttheevidence.substack.com
30
The Rule of Terror and Empty Vessels
The rule of terror and empty heads Forget Putin and Xi, look in your cupboard We still are desperately trying to concentrate on the riddle series and…
Jan 28 • 
Tom Jefferson
 and 
Carl Heneghan
179
Share this post

The Rule of Terror and Empty Vessels

trusttheevidence.substack.com
58

Ready for more?

© 2024 Carl Heneghan
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture
Share

Create your profile

undefined subscriptions will be displayed on your profile (edit)

Skip for now

Only paid subscribers can comment on this post

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in

Check your email

For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.

Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.