Trump Signals Weakness to Xi Jinping

Words matter in international diplomacy, and Donald Trump has spewed out some that are especially dangerous. He signaled that he might not defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. “Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview released on Tuesday. “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company.” Trump went on to imply that protecting the island was not even possible. “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away,” he said. “It’s 68 miles away from China.”

The comment typifies Trump’s view of foreign policy as a business transaction, and likely appeals to a political base weary of Washington’s superpower responsibilities. But although such talk may be good domestic politics, it makes for atrocious geopolitical strategy. The Chinese dictator Xi Jinping is listening for clues about American intentions in Asia, and factoring them into his calculations for promoting Chinese influence. Trump’s Taiwan remarks play right into his hands by undermining the most fundamental, yet fragile, source of U.S. global power: confidence in American leadership.

At the moment, conflict over Taiwan, which the Communist regime in Beijing claims as an integral part of China, hardly seems imminent. The CIA believes that Xi has told his military brass to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, but this doesn’t mean he will. Xi told President Joe Biden in a November meeting that he had no plans to do so (though it would be foolhardy to take the Chinese leader at his word). China would run tremendous risks with a grab for the island. If the campaign faltered, or sparked a costly regional war, the price could be Xi’s political career and perhaps even the future of Communist rule over China.