Ambassador Harry Tseng, Taiwan’s top diplomat in Canada, has complex views on the topic of China’s military expansionism.

In an exclusive interview with The Bureau, Tseng argues that despite Beijing’s increasing shows of force in the South China Sea, he believes President Xi Jinping is simply not positioned to instigate a hot war with Taiwan and the West.

The reason?

Xi leads a People’s Liberation Army that is rotten with corruption. And the rot extends deep into China’s economy, Tseng argues, sitting across from me in the conference room of Taiwan’s mission near Parliament Hill.

That is not to say, he stressed, that Beijing’s well-advertised plans of subjugating Taiwan and overtaking the United States as the world’s sole superpower, should be taken lightly.

Xi is trying to fulfill these objectives covertly, Tseng says, without firing a shot.

He says Taiwan’s government thinks the immediate threat is that Beijing is pressuring the democratic world into succumbing to “China’s legal warfare and authoritarian expansionism.”

This is the title of a sensitive government paper from Taiwan that Ambassador Tseng shared withThe Bureau.

He explained that Taiwan believes Beijing’s actions over the past few months indicate the Communist regime is rapidly extending its geopolitical laws into other nations.

This is what Taiwan calls “legal warfare.”

Some of these actions relate to China’s new Coast Guard laws, which appear to have been used to justify excessive force used against Phillipines personnel in the South China Sea. And last week a Taiwanese fishing vessel was boarded and detained by China, setting off a confrontation with Taiwan’s Coast Guard.

Probably more concerning to citizens around the world, Tseng says, are Beijing’s actions on June 20th, to impose 22 new legal guidelines that would criminalize advocacy for Taiwan independence.

According to Taiwan’s analysis, China’s legal framework for these sham sedition-type charges is so broad and vague that most of Taiwan’s population and even foreigners would be targeted.

And so, anyone from Taiwan — or whom supports Taiwan — that travels for business, study or pleasure to China, Hong Kong or Macau, could be arrested under Beijing’s national security laws. Already ten citizens of Taiwan have been arrested.

“Alongside Taiwanese facing legal risks, any foreign nationals supporting Taiwan’s international status, recognizing that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other, advocating Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, supporting Taiwan’s defense fortification, or opposing China’s threats to Taiwan, will also encounter similar risks,” says the government assessment provided to The Bureau.

Ambassador Tseng suggested Beijing’s recent actions fit into a surge of Chinese interference aimed at undermining Taiwan’s new president William Lai, a pro-democracy leader that angered Xi’s regime in his inaugural speech.

“Releasing judicial guidelines intended to intimidate Taiwan one month after the Lai government took office appears to be a strategy to weaponize domestic law against Taiwan,” the internal analysis from Taiwan’s government says.

The Bureau’s wide-ranging interview with Ambassador Harry Tseng on Friday, July 5th is published here, in a condensed format.

The Bureau

Ambassador Tseng, the last time we spoke was early this year, shortly after President William Lai was elected.

You predicted at that time that the Chinese regime would start to demonstrate more shows of military force and I think what we would call cognitive warfare directed towards your country. So can you update us on what has happened since? 

Ambassador Harry Tseng

I think what I have predicted is what we have seen so far and now the newly elected president [William Lai] has already taken office and we have seen that trend of that kind of intimidation on Taiwan continue to be showing itself.

You have already read a report about the military exercise just two days after the inauguration, [with Chinese forces] intimidating Taiwan by encircling Taiwan with warships and sending warplanes to the areas near Taiwan.

That continues to be the case. And in terms of cognitive warfare, that is also ongoing. To people who watch China more closely, this is a very clear trend. 

The Bureau

Also, we've seen reports very recently that it's not only Taiwan that's facing naval aggression. We see reports in the Philippines of Chinese vessels approaching or intimidating Philippines vessels.

I believe there have been incidents in Taiwan recently as well. Could you speak about those incidents and what message do you think China is sending?

Ambassador Tseng

Yes, there are some changes of, maybe we can call it, the conduct from the Chinese side, about how they would engage foreign vessels in the South China Sea and in the waters they regard either their territorial sea or their internal waters.

And so you have seen there is physical conflicts with the Philippine personnel in the South China Sea. And also you have seen China taking custody of Taiwanese fishing vessels in the waters near the Chinese coast.

And all this, I think China is trying to show that they have the sphere of influence in these areas and they don't want other countries to disrespect that.

And I think this will also continue to be the case given the importance of the South China Sea to China and also given the fact that the Chinese leadership clearly dislike our new president and what he said in his inaugural speech.

Editor’s note: The Chinese regime appeared to be angered by these sentences from President Lai’s speech: “I think it is apparent to us all: We have a nation insofar as we have sovereignty … [Taiwan] and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other.”

The Bureau

When I visited Taiwan with international reporters in September 2023, much of the discussion was about concerns that war could be approaching.

And President Xi’s regime is almost acting as if taking over Taiwan is already accomplished. And so can you tell us, do you believe we are getting closer to war in Taiwan now?

Ambassador Tseng

Honestly, I really don't see it happening.

I remember I said to you, the war between China and Taiwan is not imminent.

It is not even inevitable. And I say that with the reason, and we just see China making troubles here and there, intimidating Taiwan everywhere, possibly colluding with politicians inside Taiwan in any way to sow discord in our society.

But that is not new and that will continue for the years to come.

But that doesn't mean that China is ready to wage war against Taiwan. As a matter of fact, what we have seen happening in China seems to see the possibility [of war] becoming less and less likely.

I'm referring to the personnel purge within the People’s Liberation Army, especially the Rocket Force.

Now they have the top five generals of the Rocket Force all reshuffled.

Nobody really knows what was the reason of this purge of the high generals.

And now they have pinpointed two former defense ministers and we've seen their party membership rescinded. This is a big disgrace in the Chinese party system, and we haven't seen the end of them yet. I think solidarity within the People’s Liberation Army is a big issue.

Would that embolden Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan at this time?

At this time when internally he's not sure about the loyalty of his own generals?

This is a big question. And secondly, the Chinese economy is facing big, big trouble.

War burns money very quickly. Do they really have enough money? You don't know how that is going to affect the financial system. In China, the banking system has accumulated so much bad debt. The real estate industry hasn't seen the trough yet. You continue to see all kinds of trouble building up in China.

For example, China has only one way now they are able to save the Chinese economy, and that is by exporting the so-called three quality industries. That is Electric Vehicles, solar panels, and batteries.

They are looking at the market in the global south because they seem to find more willing ears to listen to China in the global south.

[Editor’s note: Ambassador Tseng continues to explain how states such as Argentina are reassessing their trade ties with Beijing, which calls into question China’s plans to expand its innovation economy through global south trade.]

So under that kind of domestic situation, it's really hard to draw a conclusion that the Chinese Communist Party is going to invade Taiwan.

Recently, Xi Jinping was reported in the Financial Times as saying that the U.S. has been trying to goad China to fight a war with Taiwan because that is the quickest way to guarantee the downfall of the CCP.

And then Xi Jinping said that he wouldn't be so stupid to be taken in. His mentality is interesting.

The Bureau

It's a contradictory message.

Ambassador Tseng

It's contradictory. And that is reported by Financial Times. It was reportedly said in a meeting last year. It is a long way to answer your question, but I don't think that Taiwan has become even more dangerous now, than when we elected our President earlier this year. 

The Bureau

So is it fair to say, the simple way to look at it from this view, is this is a dangerous poker game being played by the Chinese regime and they are trying to convince the world that they have the capacity and that Taiwan should simply submit to reunification?

And China furthermore is trying to leverage or persuade other nations into accepting a “One China Policy” world. But you're saying the rest of the world doesn't have to accept that reality.

Ambassador Tseng

The rest of the world doesn't have to accept that reality.

And you said that China is trying to convince the world.

Maybe there is an even more important audience that Xi Jinping has in mind to convince. The Chinese people. He probably knows that it's more difficult to convince the world leaders, but the Chinese people is his base of power, political control, right?

You still need the Chinese people to believe that only with him in office, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can be accomplished.

And one component of that is a unification with Taiwan.

But don't get me wrong when I say that I don't see it's likely for Taiwan to have war with China. They want to unify Taiwan peacefully but they don't want to renounce the use of force.

That peaceful method means including grey zone tactics, including cognitive warfare, including the spread of disinformation, including sowing disharmony, sowing discord in your society, trying to bring up those politicians that would [support Chinese policy in Taiwan.]

Look what they have done in the so-called foreign interference [in Canada] — which is trying to influence the voters to perhaps vote for some candidates.

That is so unacceptable to your society because you are a democratic society. You cannot accept political motives conducted in the clandestine way.

But these are all tactics they are doing to our society.

And they think this is a peaceful approach because they don't fire a shot. But you know the Art of War by Sun Tzu, right?

There's one thing Sun Tzu said, that means you make a feint in the East, but then you attack in the West.

Meaning they stage all kinds of military exercises to draw your attention to considering the possibility of the military invasion in Taiwan. But meanwhile, they are making an attack in the West, meaning they are attacking Taiwan on a daily basis through cyber attacks, through infiltration. This cognitive warfare that is going on, on a daily basis. And that is something you don't pay attention to.

The Bureau

On that point of foreign interference, you of course recognize that through my reporting and others, the interference in Canada has been exposed and very recently the government report that we call NSICOP came out and said there are witting politicians colluding with both China and India in our Parliament.

Can you tell Canadians, what is your reaction to that information? You probably had some idea already, that this could be the case. But your official reaction that there are politicians allegedly colluding in our Parliament with China?

Ambassador Tseng

It is not for me to comment on the individual cases, but I just want to draw some similarities here.

I think it's good for this kind of [Canadian government information to be disclosed regarding] alleged collusion between the politicians here and perhaps their sponsors with Chinese connections. I think it is a good progress.

And I say that because this is also happening in Taiwan. And we are also trying to build up public awareness to see what kind of political statements or what kind of political activities are benign, and what kind would really be, if not orchestrated, influenced by unfriendly forces.

The Bureau

Do you see signs in your new political makeup in Taiwan since the election, with a President that could be opposed to the largest portion of your legislative body? Are you seeing any signs of potential foreign influence in your own government now, in this new political reality?

Ambassador Tseng

Well, I don't want to be too specific. But where we are now in Taiwan, in our legislative view and our Parliament, is something we haven't seen for many years in Taiwan.

In the Legislative Yuan, this is the first time we see this kind of confrontation between the President and the Legislative branch.

Has a third party, some invisible hand come in behind?

We don't know. But there are all kinds of reports in Taiwan, and people are very curious about why on earth the party whip of the KMT led a 16-member delegation to visit China, less than a month before the inauguration.

And what have they discussed with the Chinese counterpart? Why did they come back to Taiwan and then started to introduce this Legislative reform act?

Maybe in Taiwan, the people would like to know more about that as well.

The Bureau 

That's a good point. So I'll come to my final questions. 

Whenever we meet, my thought is for you, as someone that has experienced many of the issues that Canada is to a lesser degree now confronting, what should Canada learn from Taiwan's history and its struggle with hostile foreign forces?

Ambassador Tseng

I am not a politician. I'm a diplomat. A very important part of my job is really to promote better awareness of the challenge we are under in Taiwan to the Canadian people, so that we can have your support.

Your support can only come from understanding. And your support can only come from compassion. So I want to let my audience, the Canadian people, know that you are on the good side of history.

You are on the high moral ground. I think I have seen a good change in terms of Canada's starting to perceive itself as needing to make greater contributions to the international community. I don't only mean that you are looking at the percentage of your defense budget of your GDP. I'm saying that Canada seems to understand that in the G-7 you need to take up a greater leadership role.

Don't always refer to yourself as a medium power. It's you that circumscribes yourself to become a medium power. You are positioned to be a first rate power.

It's you that are dragging your own legs.

sam@thebureau.news