Vladimir Putin’s surprise selection of Andrei Belousov, an economist, as defense minister is the clearest sign yet that Russia has shifted its economy onto a war footing and that the fate of Russian forces in Ukraine depends heavily on winning an arms manufacturing race with the West.

“Belousov’s appointment is, in part, a recognition of how central the war has become to the economy, and how central the economy is to the war,” said Sam Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London.