(cache)Predicting the Political Alignment of Twitter Users | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

Predicting the Political Alignment of Twitter Users

Publisher: IEEE

Abstract:The widespread adoption of social media for political communication creates unprecedented opportunities to monitor the opinions of large numbers of politically active ind...View more
Abstract:
The widespread adoption of social media for political communication creates unprecedented opportunities to monitor the opinions of large numbers of politically active individuals in real time. However, without a way to distinguish between users of opposing political alignments, conflicting signals at the individual level may, in the aggregate, obscure partisan differences in opinion that are important to political strategy. In this article we describe several methods for predicting the political alignment of Twitter users based on the content and structure of their political communication in the run-up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections. Using a data set of 1,000 manually-annotated individuals, we find that a support vector machine (SVM) trained on hash tag metadata outperforms an SVM trained on the full text of users' tweets, yielding predictions of political affiliations with 91% accuracy. Applying latent semantic analysis to the content of users' tweets we identify hidden structure in the data strongly associated with political affiliation, but do not find that topic detection improves prediction performance. All of these content-based methods are outperformed by a classifier based on the segregated community structure of political information diffusion networks (95% accuracy). We conclude with a practical application of this machinery to web-based political advertising, and outline several approaches to public opinion monitoring based on the techniques developed herein.
Date of Conference: 09-11 October 2011
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 02 January 2012
ISBN Information:
Publisher: IEEE
Conference Location: Boston, MA, USA

I. Introduction

Political advertising expenditures are steadily increasing [1], and are estimated to have reached four billion US dollars during the 2010 U.S. congressional midterm elections [2]. The recent ‘Citizens United’ Supreme Court ruling, which removed restrictions on corporate spending in political campaigns, is likely to accelerate this trend. As a result, political campaigns are placing more emphasis on social media tools as a low-cost platform for connecting with voters and promoting engagement among users in their political base.

References

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