10 Numbers That Show The US Has Fallen Into A Horrifying Economic Depression

This article is archived.

Upgrade to premium to access all of the ZeroHedge archive.

Already a member? Sign in.

PREMIUM

ONLY $25/MONTH

BILLED ANNUALLY OR $30 MONTHLY

All BASIC features, plus:

Access to subscriber-only premium articles
Ad-free environment
Unmoderated comment section
Premium commentary features including user tiering and comment tracking (coming soon)
Access to private, invitation-only Zerohedge X account
Exclusive access to The Market Ear content
Access to Newsquawk breaking news and market squawks, and discount for real-time commentary
Early glimpse at all our posts

SELECT

PROFESSIONAL

ONLY $85/MONTH

BILLED ANNUALLY OR $100 MONTHLY

All PREMIUM features, plus:

Access to our constantly updated research database via a private dropbox account (including hedge fund letters, research reports and analyses from all the top Wall Street banks)
Notifications for new posts, breaking news and comment replies (coming soon)
Discord-based chat and commentary rooms (coming soon)

SELECT

Tech Titans: A bounce now and then the next move down?

NASDAQ technicals

NASDAQ is trading close to the first meaningful support at 17k. We are well below the 100 day, but still above the 200 day. Note that there is some sort of (imperfect) longer term trend line coming in slightly lower. A bounce and then the next move down?

On Everyone's Mind: Repeat Of August-October...?

Eerie similarity

JPM's excellent Positioning Intelligence team thinks that there’s quite a few similarities observed so far in April to the dynamics of August last year.

1. A market pull-back post almost 30% gains

2. A similar magnitude of declines by this point MTD

3. Rising yields / resurfacing inflation concerns

4. HFs starting to add shorts

5. Positioning declines as highlighted by their TPM.

We can add many more reasons why it feels like this sell-off still has legs. Some of them we go over in this email.

Sentiment Not Signalling BUY

"Are you seeing panic?"

Six stats to get you going this morning

1. The Dow closed lower for its 6th straight red day. The index is now down over 2,000 points from its recent all time high.

2. The S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average Monday for the first time since last November, ending the 10th longest streak since 1950.

3. The S&P 500 is only down 3.7% from its peak closing price at the end of March. The median intra-year drawdown since 1928 is -13%.

4. Monday was the first time since November 2nd that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, S&P 400 (mid-caps), and Russell 2000 (small-caps) all closed below their 50-day moving averages.

5. The volatility index VIX is now up over 50% in just 3 weeks.

6. The Real 10-Year Yield (adjusted for expected inflation) rose to 2.20%, the highest since last November. We entered the year with the real 10-year yield of 1.72%.

Combo Of Elevated Positioning And Low Positioning Volatility Has Not Been A Great Set-Up

Low positioning vol

"...what’s notable about the past two months is how little volatility we’ve seen in positioning. In fact, the 2m standard deviation of our TPM’s level of positioning is the lowest we’ve seen in our data since 2006. On its own, low volatility in the positioning level doesn’t suggest equity markets should be weaker. However, the combination of elevated positioning (>80th %-tile) and low volatility (<30th %-tile) has not been a great set-up for the market in the past"

Not So Bad Apple

Awakening the giant

Apple had its largest gain of the year. Sell-side still loves this stock and have significant upside to price target. The stock has been a massive underperformer. And now it looks like news-flow is turning.

Upgrade to Premium

Today's Top Stories

Ukraine Gets Their Billions Despite CIA Director Reportedly Warning Zelenksy To Stop Stealing So Much Money

Contact Information+

Assistance and Requests: Click here

Tips: tips@zerohedge.com

General: info@zerohedge.com

Legal: legal@zerohedge.com

Advertising: Click here

Abuse/Complaints: abuse@zerohedge.com

Login

10 Numbers That Show The US Has Fallen Into A Horrifying Economic Depression

This article is archived.

Upgrade to premium to access all of the ZeroHedge archive.

PREMIUM

ONLY $25/MONTH

BILLED ANNUALLY OR $30 MONTHLY

All BASIC features, plus:

PROFESSIONAL

ONLY $85/MONTH

BILLED ANNUALLY OR $100 MONTHLY

All PREMIUM features, plus:

Tech Titans: A bounce now and then the next move down?

On Everyone's Mind: Repeat Of August-October...?

Sentiment Not Signalling BUY

"Are you seeing panic?"

Combo Of Elevated Positioning And Low Positioning Volatility Has Not Been A Great Set-Up

Not So Bad Apple

Today's Top Stories

Ukraine Gets Their Billions Despite CIA Director Reportedly Warning Zelenksy To Stop Stealing So Much Money

Congressmen Are "Terrified Of The Intel Agencies"; Tucker Carlson Warns They'll Frame Them With "Kiddie Porn"

London Museum's 'LGBTQ Audio Guide' Wrongly Claims British Monarch Was "Person Of Colour"

"Seven F*cking Dollars!": Social Media Influencer Rages After Paying $7 For An Apple At Whole Foods

The Intel Agencies Of Government Are Fully Weaponized

15 State Officials Warn Bank Of America About 'De-Banking' Of Christians

Desperate To Do Whatever It Takes, Unlikely To Make Any Difference: A Dire Warning From Mario Draghi

Sidney Powell Handed Win After Judges Dismiss Disciplinary Effort By Texas State Bar

NYC High School Soccer Game Cancelled After Migrants Refuse To Leave The Field

How Debt-to-GDP Ratios Have Changed Around The World Since 2000