In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.
He was completely obscure.
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support
Soon, he was to face elections
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment.
Back in 1999, Primakov had a nearly universal support. With 84 out of 89 governors backing him, his victory seemed all but predetermined. Total bipartisan support in the political establishment combined with the wide popularity in masses seemed like a winning combination.
With all the support of Kremlin, and with the FSB behind him, Putin was still an underdog. He was to face more popular (like 20 times more popular) candidate backed by almost the entire regional elite. That seemed like an impossible bid
Unless he would play some magic trick
In September 1999, Russia saw four major apartment bombings. 1 in Dagestan, 1 in Volgodonsk, 2 in Moscow. All the four attacks targeted large residential buildings (the standard type of accommodation in the country)
All four were allegedly performed by the Chechen separatists
The apartment bombings involved massive civilian casualties. More than 300 dead, more than 1700 wounded. As the attacks apparently targeted "normal" residential buildings, pretty much everyone in the country could see themselves in danger.
The atmosphere was somewhat psychotic.
September 1999 timeline
4-16 - the apartment bombings
16 - the Parliament confirms Putin as the Prime Minister
24 - Putin makes his famous speech, promising to kill terrorists everywhere he can find them, including in the toilet
October 1, 1999, Russia troops cross the border of Chechnya, aiming to topple the separatist regime in Grozny. This short victorious war boosted Putin out of nothing. In August, he was a noname. By December, he was the national hero, and the saviour of the motherland.
The war made Putin popular. By the time Yeltsin stepped down, he was already the most popular politician in the country. In 2000 he score an easy victory on the presidential elections, succeeding his patron.
Without the war, he would have never made it. He needed the war badly.
That's why the entire story with the apartment bombings looked suspicious. The bombings came too timely and were just too convenient for the obscure, unknown Putin, who needed the popularity for his forthcoming Presidential elections
Especially in the light of the Ryazan sugar
Of all the real or alleged terrorist attacks in Russia, the Ryazan story looked the shadiest. As terrorists seemed to target "normal" buildings, the country got increasingly terrified, vigilant and psychotic. Regular citizens were checking their basements looking for explosives
On September 22, 1999 Alexey Kartofelnikov living on Novoselov 14/16 in a provincial city of Ryazan noticed an unfamiliar car parked nearby his residential building. Its passengers took several white bags and carried them into the basement of his house.
As the strangers left, inhabitants called the police. Police came and found several large bags from sugar - with a detonator. Police evacuated the inhabitants, announcing that these "sugar" bags contained hexagon. Next day, it was all in the news.
Same night the police arrested two suspects. To their surprise they showed the FSB id cards. Soon, the Moscow FSB office called the Ryazan police and ordered a release of their agents.
What was in the bags? The authorities gave different versions. Before the FSB agents were arrested, Putin told these were the real explosives and thanked the Ryazan citizens for their vigilance. They helped to prevent a real terrorist attack.
After the arrest, the official version changed. Putin's deputy Patrushev explained these were no explosives, but the normal sugar. The FSB agents drove to Ryazan, bought sugar, and put it to the basement checking the vigilance of the locals. So, it was only the training.
Some believed in the official explanation, others did not. Felshtinsky and Litvinenko wrote a book, claiming that the 1999 bombings that brought Putin to power, were all the FSB false flag operation. They blew up the houses, and blamed in on Chechens to start the war
Here you can find a pretty good summary of these events + useful links and materials. It's all in Russian, but understandable with the Google Translate
And the last detail. What was interesting about the Moscow bombings, is that they targeted poorer, non affluent districts of the East and South. If it was a false flag operation, then it was designed in a way that the elite/upper class would not get hurt even accidentally
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting ruler
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec
The link is in the first comment
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download
By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.com
Key takeaways:
1. Missile production is mostly about machining 2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise 3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually
That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive process
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality
Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians do
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective
It is the fact
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:
Bloody tyrants rule longer
The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any other
There is one subtle detail in Putin's narrative, that may be difficult for a foreigner to detect or grasp. There is nothing "autistic" or "obsessive" about it. There is nothing even personal.
95% of it was a standard Russian History textbook for 13-15 years old
For a Westerner, Putin's narrative may sound like a bizarre, autistic rant, signifying some deep & obsessive interest in history. For a Russian, it's not. This is just a normal history textbook for the junior high school
That is what absolutely everyone has learnt as a teen
That's why Putin feels the need to describe everything since the 9th c. and the times of Rurik in the exact chronological order. He is retelling a standard history textbook from the very beginning