The 20 Percent

Tuesday’s primary results undermine Trump’s next “rigged election” scam.

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Election workers check voters in at Columbus Mennonite Church during the primary election on March 19, 2024. (Photo by Andrew Spear/Getty Images)

At a campaign rally in Michigan a few weeks before she dropped out of the presidential race, Nikki Haley warned the frontrunner in the Republican primary.

“He’s not going to get the 40 percent if he’s going and calling out my supporters and saying they’re barred permanently from MAGA,” she vowed. “He’s not going to get the 40 percent by calling them names. He’s not going to get the 40 percent by trying to take over the RNC.”

Haley had plucked the “40 percent” figure from the results of South Carolina’s primary, where she received almost precisely that share of the vote. To hear her tell it, you would think that number represented the percentage of Republican voters who are reluctant to vote for Donald Trump again but might be persuaded to do so if he changes his approach.

It was a shrewd talking point. It just wasn’t true. The South Carolina GOP had held an “open” primary in which Democrats and independents were free to vote. Because their own party’s presidential primary this year was effectively uncontested, many left-leaning voters seized the opportunity to cast a Republican ballot instead.

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  1. Janicewfahy

    Great piece, Mr. Cattagio. I was full on with you for much of it. That said, I see no credible evidence that Trump has built some new political coalition capable of winning elections at the federal level. The orange Caligula hasn't won a feckin' thing since his 2016 accident. I agree that a realignment is taking place and that Trump's election hastened this realignment because of his open, obnoxious grotesque character. I mean, he is objectively the type of person all of our parents warned us against becoming and/or marrying - a bad man with a severe personality disorder. No wonder he has no friends, not even a dog - it's really a little bit heartbreaking. All that money and not a solitary person in his life who can reach him and help him.

    But, I digress. The reason I believe that the 20% is real and is about to hand a seriously bruising election to the Republican Party at the end of the year is my parents, both of them 2+ time Trump voters in South Carolina who will not vote for him again after his behavior on (and since) January 6. And my parents know and represent a lot of folks in South Cackalacky and, I suspect, beyond....at least 20%, I'd say.

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  2. Vaddeman

    I’ve said it before, and I think it bears repeating: ‘refusing’ to vote, or voting for a nonviable candidate, is irresponsible. At the same time, voting merely because of the bracketed letter after the candidate’s name is also irresponsible, and I think the main reason we’re in this situation now.

    For all the people who’ve commented about how you’ve voted Republican your whole life, was it because you truly believed the candidate was the best person for the job, or because you reflexively pick them out of party loyalty? I’d argue loyalty, especially for those who admit to ‘holding my nose’ while pulling the lever for Trump, or declared to never vote for a Democrat. That’s being brand conscious, which is fine for buying canned soup and paper towels, but hardly justification for voting. I can honestly say I’ve voted for candidates from both parties, during my life, when I thought it was the right thing to do. Can you say the same?

    Either Trump or Biden will be sworn in next year. I agree, both are bad candidates, and neither should be on the ballot, but one will be reasonably normal while the other could very likely ruin the credibility of this country by unilaterally pulling out of treaties, cozying up to our enemies, and using his position to benefit himself personally while satisfying personal grudges. I once thought Don was merely sophomoric. I’ve come to recognise him as a menace. Rationalise your choice however you wish, but making an empty protest opens the door for him to make American irrelevant.

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    Walter.Sobchak.Esq

    I live in Ohio. I voted for Haley. I voted after she suspended her campaign. In November, I will not vote for Trump for reasons too numerous to mention. the one line version is that he belongs in a nut house not the White House. As for, Joe. No, I will not vote for Joe. The Democrat party is a nut hose of people who think that we should eat bugs and freeze in the dark and who cannot tell the difference between boys and girls. Joe needs be put in a memory care unit.

    I may vote 3rd party, but under no circumstance will I vote for either of our demented geezers.

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  4. Wfreyes

    As a conservative, I find Biden to be the most destructive President of my lifetime. It is a binary choice. I am no fan of him but I will have no problem voting for Trump. SCOTUS alone makes it worth it but every day Biden and the Democrats makes me realize how the left is ruining our country.

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    1. Janicewfahy

      Thank you for your perspective. As a lifelong, Democrat - also conservative - President Biden is the most successful Democratic President of my lifetime. I'm 57. Biden's like a stealth bipartisan drone -getting things passed on infrastructure, gun safety, marriage equality, aid to our allies in trouble, etc....

      While I agree that the death of the GOP is alarming to witness, I see a lot of very real signs that this recent upheaval in our domestic politics will usher in a genuinely center right political party in these United States. We should all raise a cup to that!

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    Kat80

    It seems you’re gaining the attention of MAGA voters and making them angry…

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  6. George Goodwine

    I can see you are much more tied up in the politics and their interplay, than theRrepublic and its survival. Reagan would never allow the Republic to go to hell to nourish a personal grudge against an individual, which in your cast of characters is Trump, which has gone on as long as the Dispatch has existed in its present form.

    Go MAGA

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  7. Moorechaos

    I'll leave it blank or write in someonem

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  8. Chris Aguilar

    Being sick and tired of having one’s vote taken for granted …. Ok, I get that.

    Disgusted by Trump….ok, I get that.

    Voting 3rd party or writing in Haley or anyone else…..Ok, I get that, too.

    A “principled” conservative actually voting for Biden/Harris?? Just….wow! …and NO!

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  9. Dennis Boeing

    I live in Maricopa County, Arizona, and I voted in the Republican primary this month. I am a small government/free and fair markets/strong defense/rule of law conservative who has never voted for a Democratic candidate for president. That includes holding my nose both times I voted for Trump. Both of those reluctant Trump votes were with the expectation we'd more likely have better conservative governance with his cabinet/sub-cabinet appointees and constitutional jurists with him than his opponents.

    In our primary election I voted for Nikki Haley, and that was after she suspended her campaign. As I said after his Jan. 6, 2021 traitorous attack on the congress attempting to overthrow the government: I will never, ever vote again for Trump. Period.

    People!, it's time to support qualified, conservative, sane, moral, and ethical candidates for all elective offices, including president. It's also time to definitively reject corrupt, insane, unqualified, unethical, and immoral candidates for all elective offices. Don't laugh at the moral and ethical points, they're aspirational and in keeping with the vision of the Founders - and also apply to all of us as citizens (whether or not you agree is beside the point).

    In 2024 the only responsible option is to vote for a qualified 3rd party ticket, and not for either Trump or Biden. Barring that, I will definitely not vote for Trump. Period!

    I hope you do the same.

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    1. George Goodwine

      I wish I could laugh at the your misplaced moral and ethical points. Unfortunately, you support the faction willing to risk a Biden victory just to satisfy your ego as it regards Tru If you approve of the current membership of SCOTUS, that is due to Trump. I could go on and on in the same vein, but I am sure you will remain as your are.

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    2. Norcal

      Trump needs to lose as resoundingly as possible, which, unfortunately, means holding your nose and voting for Biden. Nothing Biden has done is as heinous as what Trump did on January 6th.

      Voting 3rd party increases the chances that Trump will win.

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      1. George Goodwine

        Jan 6 was a fulfill,ent of Jefferson- quote: "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure. "

        If the progressives win the tree of liberty will hopefully be refreshed, but it may be too late.

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        1. Walter.L.Appling

          Jan 6 was one, desperate, part of Trump’s multifaceted coup attempt against the United States. Through four years of asserting that he won, that he won all 50 states, that he won the popular vote by millions, etc, etc, ad nauseam, he has kept the coup attempt alive.

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        2. Norcal

          You have it backwards, my friend. The tyrant is Trump, and the patriots are those who oppose him.

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  10. Kevin H

    Yes FOX did not incessantly cover that Pence will not endorse but what percentage of those viewers do you think are not aware of that news? My guess is that percentage is rather small. I would also suppose that it would be a very small percentage that would even expect that he would. Pence burned his bridge with the Trump crowd on January 7.

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