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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Feb 19 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective

It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
The Russian establishment has a lot to lose. They are terrified of instability. They correctly realise that in case of chaos, they may lose everything. To keep stability, they need a candidate with the objective right to rule

Once again, not subjective. Specifically, objective
There are currently two such people. Putin and Medvedev. Putin has an objective right to rule, because he received it from Yeltsin. Medvedev has an objective right to rule, because he received in from Putin. Both are legitimate princes, with an objective right to rule Russia Image
Should Putin die, Medvedev will remain one single legitimate prince with an objective right to rule. In this regard, he will be the only person capable of guaranteeing stability and the perseverance of order. I find it highly likely that the stakeholders will just hand him power
This makes Medvedev an extreme, mortal threat to Putin, irrespectively of what Medvedev thinks or wants. This is the only singular person capable of succeeding Putin and keep stability. At this point, Mevedev is the danger number 1 for Putin's physical survival
Should Medvedev keep silence, he would be No 1 candidate to:

a) succeed Putin
b) make a political U-turn

Therefore, Medvedev cannot keep silence and will have to choose between the physical death and the reputational suicide Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 18
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵 Image
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:

Bloody tyrants rule longer

The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any otherImage
Image
Read 19 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 9
There is one subtle detail in Putin's narrative, that may be difficult for a foreigner to detect or grasp. There is nothing "autistic" or "obsessive" about it. There is nothing even personal.

95% of it was a standard Russian History textbook for 13-15 years oldImage
For a Westerner, Putin's narrative may sound like a bizarre, autistic rant, signifying some deep & obsessive interest in history. For a Russian, it's not. This is just a normal history textbook for the junior high school

That is what absolutely everyone has learnt as a teen
That's why Putin feels the need to describe everything since the 9th c. and the times of Rurik in the exact chronological order. He is retelling a standard history textbook from the very beginning
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 4
By the late 20th c. Israel won. It vanquished and conquered. Emotions aside, this is exactly what happened. As the victor, Israel could choose between two workable options for what to do with its victory:

1) One state solution
2) Two states solution

It chose neither
One state solution. Annex the conquered land & give citizenship to the conquered.

Pro: Claim the entire territory from the river to the sea
Contra: You will not be the Jewish state anymore. To integrate the conquered, you would need to rethink and reinvent your own identity
Two state solution. Allow the Palestinian state to form & actively assist in its formation.

Pro: You can remain a Jewish state with the Jewish majority
Contra: You will not be able to claim the entire territory from the river to the sea. You will have to return to 1967 borders
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 29
Not quite. The key thing understand about the UK is that it is a low capability & high capacity country. It produces very cool and often unique stuff. It may be even monopolist in some very important high end sectors. It is just that these sectors tend to be quantitatively smallImage
Consider the following. The UK is an extremely important producer of the higher end measurement systems, including for the Russian military industry. It would not be too much of an exaggeration to say that the UK is a monopolist producer

But it is a monopolist in a small nicheImage
The market of higher end measurement systems for the military/dual use industry (UK 💪) is small

The market of lower end, "dumb" powerful lasers for civilian manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction, etc (China 💪) is huge

Some market niches are just way larger than others
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 28
IF Russia has been under the unprecedentedly wide sanctions for almost two years

BUT It has increased its output of missiles

THEN The sanctions have been targeted wrong all along

Now that is because the policy makers have limited understanding of how the war economy works
The astonishing inefficiency in undermining the Russian military production makes more sense, considering that the sanctions have not been based on any serious understanding of the Russian military manufacturing base, of its rationales and tradeoffs, bottlenecks and chokepoints
To target the military production, you first need to identify its bottlenecks. And to identify the bottlenecks you must understand how the production chain works, both in theory and in practice. Now the latter requires a serious OSINT investigation

And that is what we didImage
Read 12 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 23
Do you realise that the Moscow Kremlin is the largest Italian fortress in the world? Far surpassing anything you can find in Italy, Europe or elsewhere? That its construction in the late 15th c. required around 200-250 million bricks, making it a project of Albert Kahnish scale?
Image
Do you also realise that Moscow Kremlin is only *one* of the fortresses Italians built in these god forsaken lands in around 1500? There were more, see the Kolomna Kremlin for example. Don't look at the architecture, think about the insane quantity of bricks it took to build it Image
Obviously, original Kremlin was significantly larger. Moats and outworks were all destroyed in the 19th c. The sheer size, the speed of construction (-> material production) suggests the concentrated efforts comparable with Stalin's industrialisation happening in around 1500Image
Read 6 tweets

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