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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Jan 23 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Do you realise that the Moscow Kremlin is the largest Italian fortress in the world? Far surpassing anything you can find in Italy, Europe or elsewhere? That its construction in the late 15th c. required around 200-250 million bricks, making it a project of Albert Kahnish scale?
Image
Do you also realise that Moscow Kremlin is only *one* of the fortresses Italians built in these god forsaken lands in around 1500? There were more, see the Kolomna Kremlin for example. Don't look at the architecture, think about the insane quantity of bricks it took to build it Image
Obviously, original Kremlin was significantly larger. Moats and outworks were all destroyed in the 19th c. The sheer size, the speed of construction (-> material production) suggests the concentrated efforts comparable with Stalin's industrialisation happening in around 1500Image
So let's get this straight. You are let's say a skilled architect from Bologna. You sort of have customers and orders in Europe. But a brutal savage warlord in the far Northeast can concentrate resources at a far greater scale (& commission a larger construction) than anyone Image
What you don't get is that savagery and brutality of the Russian state is not a bug. It's a feature. A perk. Facing no checks, having no legal or institutional constraints, the northern warlord can just rob the country and concentrate resources for your megaproject right now Image
It is the brutality, savagery & absence of legal or institutional constraints that turns Russia into the dream customer of a European industrialist that has a nice defence related project to sell. Kremlin. A tank plant. An integrated manufacturing solution

100% compatibility Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 14
1. The old diverse, fuzzy & heterogenous world of realms, lordships and city states does not translate into the homogenous nation states very well

2. That is why nation states resort to ethnic cleanings of wrong population, destruction of wrong cultural heritage etc so often
3. As fuzzy ethnic reality of the past does not really translate into the nation state world, so don’t the old “fuzzy” borders

4. Most national borders are very arbitrary. As they don’t reflect reality of the past (they can’t), there is always a temptation to renegotiate them
5. And that is exactly what Armenia did in the 1990s. It tried to renegotiate the internationally recognized border by force (because history). Despite the initial success, this turned into an absolute catastrophe for Armenia

Retrospectively, it was a huge & irreparable mistake
Read 9 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 9
Silly questions are often the best
Image
Were the US to develop slower & earlier (few centuries before the railway), we might have seen way more population, money & culture concentrated along Mississippi. First you gain "fat", due to easier communications and then it's largely path dependency

It would be Rhine Image
Russian history makes more sense, once you fully interiorize that Central Russia lies in the largest endorheic basin in the world. Volga is long, slow, easily navigable (no rapids). Great connection with Greater Iran & Central Asia. No connection with the World Ocean Image
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 10, 2023
Russia is forging almost all of its gun barrels (tanks/artillery) on the GFM Steyr (Austria 🇦🇹 ) machines imported in the late Soviet + Putin's era. This specific machine you see in the Medvedev's video was launched on Motovilikha Plants back in 1976

Still working today
Image
The thing with the forging-pressing equipment is that it tends to be:

a) physically durable
b) less affected by transition to computer control

This screw press working at the Votkinsk Plant (major ICBM/SLBM producer) was produced in 1915. Works fine Image
So when it comes to the pressing-forging equipment, Russia works with a mix of:

a) very, very old
b) very, very new

This is a Danieli (Italy 🇮🇹) forging press from the same Votkinsk Plant. Brand new, high tech, extremely software dependent Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 9, 2023
Toy countries make stuff to make stuff. As this market is small, it is almost invisible in the aggregated data. Yet, it is absolutely bottleneckish

Left: Watervliet Arsenal, NY 🇺🇸
Right: Motovilikha Plants, Perm 🇷🇺

Both use modifications of the same Austrian 🇦🇹 GFM machine


Image
Image
Once again, toy countries don't make much stuff

But if you look at the stuff to make stuff, they role is huuuuugely disproportionate to their size and population
Both machines were installed in the 1970s. And that is also a good point

Whether you are the US🇺🇸
Or the USSR ☭

When you need to make stuff, you will probably buy your stuff to make stuff from a toy country🇦🇹. Because there are not many options, really. The market is small Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 8, 2023
Contrary to the popular view, significant superiority in the quantity of weaponry does translate into the military victory. The military output delta is a great predictor of whether you win or not, and the longer a war lasts, the better it works

You outproduce -> You win
One major Russian advantage is the sheer quantity of air defence missiles. Countering the enemy airforce & projectiles, air defence systems cover the Russian ground forces from every possible aerial threat. They also allow Russian airforce to bomb Ukrainians without distractions
Now how can Russia produce so much? Let's follow some of the key production operations in the manufacture of S400 missile at the MMZ Avangard. Part of the Almaz Antey corporation, it is a major Russian producer of air defence missiles
Read 22 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 3, 2023
Backed by the manufacturing power of Europe, Putin may very well win this war. The Russian machining park consists of Western (mostly EU 🇪🇺) tools imported in 2003-2023. With spare parts flow & tech support uninterrupted, Russia gonna steamroll over Ukraine as planned 🇺🇦

🇷🇺🚀💪
Image
Ballistic missile producers continue to receive all the necessary supplies and maintenance

(You may go through this thread to get a first impression of how the Russian military manufacturing base looks like, on example of Votkinsk Plant)

Launch systems producers, too

(Titan-Barrikady)

Read 4 tweets

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