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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Jan 28 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
IF Russia has been under the unprecedentedly wide sanctions for almost two years

BUT It has increased its output of missiles

THEN The sanctions have been targeted wrong all along

Now that is because the policy makers have limited understanding of how the war economy works
The astonishing inefficiency in undermining the Russian military production makes more sense, considering that the sanctions have not been based on any serious understanding of the Russian military manufacturing base, of its rationales and tradeoffs, bottlenecks and chokepoints
To target the military production, you first need to identify its bottlenecks. And to identify the bottlenecks you must understand how the production chain works, both in theory and in practice. Now the latter requires a serious OSINT investigation

And that is what we didImage
We have investigated:

· 4 missiles producing corporations
· 28 key production facilities
· A broad range of sources varying from the official TV propaganda to the PhD dissertations by the military industrial executives
What we found:

CNC Machines: EMCO 🇦🇹, Haas 🇺🇸, Kovosvit Mas 🇨🇿, DMG MORI 🇩🇪, Hermle 🇩🇪, GF🇨🇭, Tos Varnsdorf 🇨🇿, Skoda 🇨🇿, Hyundai 🇰🇷, Walter 🇩🇪, Schaublin🇨🇭, Index 🇩🇪, Parpas 🇮🇹, Hardinge 🇺🇸, Fanuc 🇯🇵, TDZ Turn 🇨🇿, Leadwell 🇹🇼, VDF Boehringer 🇩🇪, Doosan 🇰🇷, Heller 🇩🇪, Mazak 🇯🇵, Okuma 🇯🇵, Kitamura 🇯🇵, Hanwha 🇰🇷, Trumpf 🇩🇪, Biglia 🇮🇹, NSH 🇺🇸, Spinner 🇩🇪, Prima 🇮🇹, Anca 🇦🇺, Techni Waterjet 🇦🇺, LVD 🇧🇪, Mazak 🇯🇵, Stan 🇷🇺, DMTG 🇨🇳 + minor producers, mostly Western European & Taiwanese
CNC Controllers: Fanuc 🇯🇵, Siemens 🇩🇪, Heidenhain 🇩🇪
PLC Controllers: Siemens 🇩🇪
Measurement: Renishaw 🇬🇧, Hexagon 🇬🇧, Zeiss 🇩🇪, Bosch 🇩🇪
Tooling: Sandvik 🇸🇪, Seco 🇸🇪, Guhring 🇩🇪, Erowa🇨🇭, Walter 🇩🇪, Zoller 🇩🇪, Kyocera 🇯🇵, Tungaloy 🇯🇵, Korloy 🇰🇷 Iscar 🇮🇱, Eroglu 🇹🇷
Integrated solutions: Siemens 🇩🇪, Dassault 🇫🇷, PTC 🇺🇸, Ansys 🇺🇸

NB: Siemens is the only company in the world capable of providing the all-in-one CAD to CNC solution of the military tier, minimising the human factor at any stage of the production process
If I were to name one critical bottleneck in the Russian military manufacturing, I would choose Siemens Teamcenter. The most sophisticated enterprises in Russia including aircraft/aircraft engine/missile producers developed the overreliance on the foolproof Siemens solutions
Resurrected from the ashes of the 1990s, they had neither the Soviet craftsmanship, nor tacit knowledge, nor vocational training system. To compensate for the uneven (low) quality of their workforce and reduce variance in product they had no choice but to overrely on Siemens Image
The pdf version of our report is already available upon request. It will be soon available for the general audience.

If you want to support our work, you can donate to:

PayPal: galeev.info@gmail.com
Patreon: kamilkazani922
Wire:

Beneficiary Rhodus Inc.
Account Number 9801141480
Type of Account Checking
Beneficiary Address 447 Broadway, 2nd Floor, 197 New York, NY 10013
ABA Routing Number 084106768
Bank Name Evolve Bank & Trust
Bank Address 6000 Poplar Ave, Suite 300 Memphis, TN 38119
ETH 0xA9FA4454cC3EC0Ff521926BB5F8D4389bA0e665a

BTC bc1qhggd33vl3hz2a8gj95g3dtqjsmwmtdx0ql6cm9

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 23
Do you realise that the Moscow Kremlin is the largest Italian fortress in the world? Far surpassing anything you can find in Italy, Europe or elsewhere? That its construction in the late 15th c. required around 200-250 million bricks, making it a project of Albert Kahnish scale?
Image
Do you also realise that Moscow Kremlin is only *one* of the fortresses Italians built in these god forsaken lands in around 1500? There were more, see the Kolomna Kremlin for example. Don't look at the architecture, think about the insane quantity of bricks it took to build it Image
Obviously, original Kremlin was significantly larger. Moats and outworks were all destroyed in the 19th c. The sheer size, the speed of construction (-> material production) suggests the concentrated efforts comparable with Stalin's industrialisation happening in around 1500Image
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 14
1. The old diverse, fuzzy & heterogenous world of realms, lordships and city states does not translate into the homogenous nation states very well

2. That is why nation states resort to ethnic cleanings of wrong population, destruction of wrong cultural heritage etc so often
3. As fuzzy ethnic reality of the past does not really translate into the nation state world, so don’t the old “fuzzy” borders

4. Most national borders are very arbitrary. As they don’t reflect reality of the past (they can’t), there is always a temptation to renegotiate them
5. And that is exactly what Armenia did in the 1990s. It tried to renegotiate the internationally recognized border by force (because history). Despite the initial success, this turned into an absolute catastrophe for Armenia

Retrospectively, it was a huge & irreparable mistake
Read 9 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 9
Silly questions are often the best
Image
Were the US to develop slower & earlier (few centuries before the railway), we might have seen way more population, money & culture concentrated along Mississippi. First you gain "fat", due to easier communications and then it's largely path dependency

It would be Rhine Image
Russian history makes more sense, once you fully interiorize that Central Russia lies in the largest endorheic basin in the world. Volga is long, slow, easily navigable (no rapids). Great connection with Greater Iran & Central Asia. No connection with the World Ocean Image
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 10, 2023
Russia is forging almost all of its gun barrels (tanks/artillery) on the GFM Steyr (Austria 🇦🇹 ) machines imported in the late Soviet + Putin's era. This specific machine you see in the Medvedev's video was launched on Motovilikha Plants back in 1976

Still working today
Image
The thing with the forging-pressing equipment is that it tends to be:

a) physically durable
b) less affected by transition to computer control

This screw press working at the Votkinsk Plant (major ICBM/SLBM producer) was produced in 1915. Works fine Image
So when it comes to the pressing-forging equipment, Russia works with a mix of:

a) very, very old
b) very, very new

This is a Danieli (Italy 🇮🇹) forging press from the same Votkinsk Plant. Brand new, high tech, extremely software dependent Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 9, 2023
Toy countries make stuff to make stuff. As this market is small, it is almost invisible in the aggregated data. Yet, it is absolutely bottleneckish

Left: Watervliet Arsenal, NY 🇺🇸
Right: Motovilikha Plants, Perm 🇷🇺

Both use modifications of the same Austrian 🇦🇹 GFM machine


Image
Image
Once again, toy countries don't make much stuff

But if you look at the stuff to make stuff, they role is huuuuugely disproportionate to their size and population
Both machines were installed in the 1970s. And that is also a good point

Whether you are the US🇺🇸
Or the USSR ☭

When you need to make stuff, you will probably buy your stuff to make stuff from a toy country🇦🇹. Because there are not many options, really. The market is small Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 8, 2023
Contrary to the popular view, significant superiority in the quantity of weaponry does translate into the military victory. The military output delta is a great predictor of whether you win or not, and the longer a war lasts, the better it works

You outproduce -> You win
One major Russian advantage is the sheer quantity of air defence missiles. Countering the enemy airforce & projectiles, air defence systems cover the Russian ground forces from every possible aerial threat. They also allow Russian airforce to bomb Ukrainians without distractions
Now how can Russia produce so much? Let's follow some of the key production operations in the manufacture of S400 missile at the MMZ Avangard. Part of the Almaz Antey corporation, it is a major Russian producer of air defence missiles
Read 22 tweets

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