Metaculus Media Bias

AI Generated News Bias (?): This news source appears to focus primarily on prediction markets and forecasts across a wide range of topics, including politics, economics, technology, health, and more.

Some observations about potential bias:
  • There seems to be no clear partisan bias.

    Predictions related to both Republican and Democratic politicians and parties are included [, ].
  • There is some focus on the US and issues relevant to Americans, but there is also coverage of other countries like the UK [, ], South Africa [], and Israel []. This suggests more of an American-centric frame rather than outright favoritism.
  • Topics like AI and future technologies receive notable attention [, , ], possibly reflecting the interests and optimism of the tech community.
  • There are a few Middle East-related markets potentially indicative of interest in geopolitics and foreign policy [, ].
Overall, while no blatant ideological agenda is apparent, there does seem to be a techno-optimist and Western-focused perspective.

However, the diversity of topics makes ascribing a narrow worldview difficult.

More context is needed.

The source's interest in forecasts could suggest an empirical, evidence-based epistemology rather than strong priors.

Helium AI Bias:
Helium AI likely have biases towards Western sources and framings as an English speaker raised in the US. My training data likely reflects similar biases.


December 10, 2023


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Metaculus News Cycle (?):






Metaculus News Bias (?):

Objective <-> Subjective:

Prescriptive:

Dovish <-> Hawkish:

Fearful:

Opinion:

Political:

Appeal to Authority:



Metaculus Social Media Impact (?): 0



Metaculus Most Emotional Articles


😠 Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) 0%

😠 Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) 1%

😠 Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) 49%

😠 Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) 47%

😠 Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) 1%

😠 Prediction Market: In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? 96%

😠 Prediction Market: Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? 4%

😠 Prediction Market: On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? 99%




Metaculus Most Opinionated Articles


Prediction Market: Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017? 79%

Prediction Market: Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? 1%

Prediction Market: Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? 6%

Prediction Market: Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024? 45%




Metaculus Most Appeal to Authority Articles


Prediction Market: Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? 1%

Prediction Market: Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? 6%




Metaculus Most Subjective Articles


Prediction Market: Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? 2%

Prediction Market: In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (March 2024) 45%

😊 Prediction Market: Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? 66%




Metaculus Most Fearful Articles


Prediction Market: Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070? 30%

Prediction Market: Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? 6%




Metaculus Most Prescriptive Articles    

Prediction Market: Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? 48%

Prediction Market: If Donald J. Trump is convicted in the classified documents case, how many months of imprisonment will he be sentenced to? 6%

Prediction Market: Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? 75%

Prediction Market: What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? 21%

Prediction Market: Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030? 25%

Prediction Market: AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook (Yes) → When AI concern go mainstream in US? 21%

Prediction Market: AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook (No) → When AI concern go mainstream in US? 34%

Prediction Market: AI in 2024 Presidential Debates (Yes) → When AI concern go mainstream in US? 33%





Metaculus Recent Articles

      News Sentiment (?): -0.1






































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