How would you handle the nation's finances given the current situation and the long-term prospects? Here’s your chance to find out.
After over two decades of uninterrupted borrowing, the U.S. national debt is higher as a share of the economy than at any time since World War II. Yet policymakers have done little to contain our $25 trillion national debt, and most legislation has added to it in recent years. Learn more about our current path.
The Current National Debt Path
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that national debt held by the public (which excludes what the government owes itself) has will surpass the all-time record of 106 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2028. To put that in perspective, the average over the last 50 years was about 47 percent of GDP.
The debt will be fueled by endless annual federal budget deficits (the difference between spending and revenue). The deficit is forecast to be $1.4 trillion this year. Bringing spending and revenue more in line, either by reducing spending and/or increasing revenue, will be necessary to improve the fiscal outlook once the current crisis has ended.
High and rising debt will threaten economic growth and the standard of living for all Americans as investment dwindles and the country becomes less competitive. See why rising debt is a major problem.
Why High and Rising National Debt is a Problem
High and rising national debt will threaten economic growth and the standard of living for all Americans. High debt will slow the growth of the economy and wages.
As debt rises, higher interest payments will crowd out important investments in areas like education, infrastructure, and research that can help grow the economy.
Getting the debt under control once the crisis is over will be very beneficial for generations to come, from higher wages to increased investment to lower borrowing costs for families and businesses. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the economy will grow faster with debt on a declining path as opposed to a rising one.
MEDIUM-TERM GOAL
98%10 YEARS
Stabilizing the debt at a reasonable level is the first step in improving our fiscal health. Steadying debt held by the public at 98% of the economy is a realistic level for the near term.
LONG-TERM GOAL
60%by 2050
Getting debt back down to 60% of the economy will give us the fiscal space to deal with future emergencies and help promote economic growth.
Changing course will require halting the rise of the debt as a share of the economy in the medium term and reducing the debt toward historical levels in the longer term. See more on the targets.
Why 98% of GDP in 10 Years and why 60% by 2050?
The fact is that there is no magic number for the national debt. It is not necessary to pay off the national debt entirely to restore our nation's fiscal health. In fact, incurring some national debt can be useful in responding quickly to unexpected events such as the current pandemic.
Measuring a nation’s debt as a share of its economy is a common method used by economists to gauge a country’s ability to handle its debt. We need to establish an ambitious yet attainable fiscal goal and commit as a nation to achieving it.
This tool illustrates the tough budget trade-offs involved in order to promote an informed conversation on how we can set a sustainable fiscal course.
Can you fix the debt and build a responsible federal budget? Give it a try!
Attention educators and organizations:
You can create a dedicated group to use the tool and easily compare results. Email us at
debtfixer@crfb.org to set it up.