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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Dec 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Russia is forging almost all of its gun barrels (tanks/artillery) on the GFM Steyr (Austria 🇦🇹 ) machines imported in the late Soviet + Putin's era. This specific machine you see in the Medvedev's video was launched on Motovilikha Plants back in 1976

Still working today
Image
The thing with the forging-pressing equipment is that it tends to be:

a) physically durable
b) less affected by transition to computer control

This screw press working at the Votkinsk Plant (major ICBM/SLBM producer) was produced in 1915. Works fine Image
So when it comes to the pressing-forging equipment, Russia works with a mix of:

a) very, very old
b) very, very new

This is a Danieli (Italy 🇮🇹) forging press from the same Votkinsk Plant. Brand new, high tech, extremely software dependent Image
In contrast, machining was fully revolutionised. The ancient conventional equipment is mostly inoperable for the lack of operators (even if its physical condition is ok). Transition to the computer control has fully transformed machining -> there is no alternative to CAD-CAM-CNC Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 9
Toy countries make stuff to make stuff. As this market is small, it is almost invisible in the aggregated data. Yet, it is absolutely bottleneckish

Left: Watervliet Arsenal, NY 🇺🇸
Right: Motovilikha Plants, Perm 🇷🇺

Both use modifications of the same Austrian 🇦🇹 GFM machine


Image
Image
Once again, toy countries don't make much stuff

But if you look at the stuff to make stuff, they role is huuuuugely disproportionate to their size and population
Both machines were installed in the 1970s. And that is also a good point

Whether you are the US🇺🇸
Or the USSR ☭

When you need to make stuff, you will probably buy your stuff to make stuff from a toy country🇦🇹. Because there are not many options, really. The market is small Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 8
Contrary to the popular view, significant superiority in the quantity of weaponry does translate into the military victory. The military output delta is a great predictor of whether you win or not, and the longer a war lasts, the better it works

You outproduce -> You win
One major Russian advantage is the sheer quantity of air defence missiles. Countering the enemy airforce & projectiles, air defence systems cover the Russian ground forces from every possible aerial threat. They also allow Russian airforce to bomb Ukrainians without distractions
Now how can Russia produce so much? Let's follow some of the key production operations in the manufacture of S400 missile at the MMZ Avangard. Part of the Almaz Antey corporation, it is a major Russian producer of air defence missiles
Read 22 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 3
Backed by the manufacturing power of Europe, Putin may very well win this war. The Russian machining park consists of Western (mostly EU 🇪🇺) tools imported in 2003-2023. With spare parts flow & tech support uninterrupted, Russia gonna steamroll over Ukraine as planned 🇺🇦

🇷🇺🚀💪
Image
Ballistic missile producers continue to receive all the necessary supplies and maintenance

(You may go through this thread to get a first impression of how the Russian military manufacturing base looks like, on example of Votkinsk Plant)

Launch systems producers, too

(Titan-Barrikady)

Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 2
1. Russia makes more weaponry than its enemies. If nothing is done about its military production, Russia will win this war

2. Establishing the new political rule:

Always bet against the US allies

3. With the absolutely destructive effect on the US policy and standing in Asia
4. The Russian victory in Ukraine will radically devalue the worth of the US alliance in the eyes of the world

5. Yes, America lost asymmetric wars before. But this is the first time, it will be defeated in the symmetric warfare

6. Its standing will be adjusted accordingly
7. Yes, never bet against the US rule will stand for a while (don't declare the war, don't attack the US soil)

8. But now it will be supplemented with always bet against the US allies

9. Promises, guarantees and commitments are not worth much. America is weak -> backs off easily
Read 24 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 14
1. Russian-Ukrainian war is mostly an artillery war

2. Russian artillery production fully relies upon a few dozen GFM Steyr (Austria) radial forging machines

3. Which rely upon the continuous supply of expendables from the original producer

It is *the* bottleneck. Target it
The funny thing with the GFM Steyr is that it is not even a large business. In 2021, its revenue was estimated at only 32,5 million euros. In 2022, it rose to 69,8 million (for obvious reasons). Yet, the Russian artillery industry is critically dependent upon this single company
First, the existing park of GFM Steyr machines requires a steady supply of parts and expendables to keep them running. Consider this one single SXP-55 radial forging machine operating at the Motovilikha Plants, a major artillery & MLRS producer
Read 9 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 4
There was never an "Islamic State of the Mamluks of Egypt". You just made it up

First, there was a Turkic State of the Turkic Mamluks

Then, there was a Circassian State of the Circassian Mamluks

In 1517, the King of Rome smashed Circassians and annexed Egypt into his empire
13-14th cc. - the Turkic State
14-16th cc. - the Circassian State
1517 - the Roman Conquest

Neither political realities, nor the political imagination of pre-modern polities had anything to do with an idea of nation state. Which was not even a thing before the French Revolution
Pre-history of pretty much any nation state is fictitious and largely made up. We describe very bizarre (from a modern standpoint) political orders and imaginations in a way they would make for a teleological nation state narrative

Purely political, nothing to do with reality
Read 4 tweets

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