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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Oct 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Передайте господину Ермаку, что ружья кирпичом не чистят. Ни отследить, ни перекрыть поставки consumer electronics невозможно. Потрошить ракеты в поисках потребительских чипов хорошо для поднятия моральной паники, но с т.з. санкционной политики - это все имитация деятельности
Российский ВПК массово использует *потребительскую* электронику в качестве компонентов вооружения. Так вот особенность потребительской электроники в том, что ее МНОГО. На порядки и порядки больше, чем чисто военной. Она не может являться узким местом

Этот канал не перекрыть
Ключевая особенность узкого места в том, что оно - узкое. А потому эффективная санкционная политика должна таргетировать НЕБОЛЬШИЕ рынки. Такие, например, как рынки промышленного оборудования:

Механообработка (это маст)
Гальваника
Термообработка
и т.д.

Это все узкие места
Производство целого ряда компонентов и расходников для промышленного оборудования чудовищно концентрировано - в гораздо большей степени, чем производство собственно оборудования. По целому ряду позиций в мире существует всего несколько поставщиков. На очень маленьком рынке
Отследив поставки tooling на российские военные заводы, вы не поднимете хайпа. Электорат вообще не поймет что это и о чем. Но это будет иметь практический смысл. Потому что компоненты и расходники для оборудования - это реально узкое место, которое реально можно перекрыть
А потребительские чипы - нельзя

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 22
Apology not accepted

Everyone knows what you are trying to imply
Image
Honestly, of all the made up outrages in recent memory this one seems to be the most made up by far
Image
Image
One could have cherrypicked enough "evidence" to make an equally sound "argument" for an octopus being a philosemitic meme. Here for example an octopus represents the antisemitic conspiracy to be battled with (referring to the Dreyfus affair) Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 29
BBC: putting spotlight on Ukraine's past

Sane people: putting spotlight on Russia's present

Milchakov commander of the "Rusich" group fighting for Russia in Ukraine

"I am a Nazi. I am a Nazi... I tell you straight up: I am a Nazi. I can raise a hand in Nazi salute"
First got famous in 2011, uploading to the internet a viral video of him killing and eating a puppy Image
In 2022, the Rusich proposed to exterminate:

- All male population of Ukraine older than 5
- All female population of Ukraine older than 10

Surviving girls were to be distributed to Russian soldiers 2-3 girls per capita. Surviving boys - trained for the military service Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 25
The Rhodus Story

On a sunny spring day of 2022 someone transferred me 10 Ethereums. That was a lot of money. With this money I could do something big

So, I decided to do something interesting 🧵 Image
Not long before that, I wandered into an article «Germany and Czechia help Russia to build ballistic missiles Sarmat and Sineva with the nuclear warheads» (2017). A case study on the Krasmash missile producing plant, it posed some questions that analysts seldom ask:

🤔 Image
What was the article about?

The Krasnoyarsk Machine Building Plant (Krasmash) is one of two key intercontinental ballistic missile manufacturers in Russia. Krasmash produces and maintains the liquid-propellant missiles such as the ICBM Sarmat and SLBM Bulava Image
Read 13 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 22
Yes, certainly. Our decisions are primarily guided by impressions

1. Russian defeat makes an *impression* that one can hardly win a war of conquest anymore

2. Russian victory makes an *impression* that one absolutely can

The cost of (2) will be enormous
The first order effect is that it will encourage the wars of conquest, and encourage globally. There are perhaps few nations in this world that do not believe that a piece of their neighbor’s land belongs to them by right

There will be way more attempts for territorial conquest
The second order effect is that states will have to adapt to the now unsafe world. Even if their neighbors do not seem to plan a war of conquest right now, they may be considering it in the future. One must prepare for this scenario

You can say goodbye to the non-proliferation
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 21
Why fund Ukraine?

1. This world consists of states

2. That are war machines optimised for war purposes

3. Allowing the war machines optimised for war purposes to make territorial conquests and get away with this, makes the world unsafe

The unsafe world will cost you more 🧵
4. Many in the US take their current material prosperity as granted

5. It is not

6. Unprecedented in the world history, it became possible only in the unprecedentedly safe world

7. When the world becomes less safe, you will have to say goodbye to the current prosperity
8. The unprecedented safety of this world is based upon it being dominated by a single war machine (US)

9. That has severely limited the incentives for other war machines to fight each other

10. The US made it very difficult for a war machine to annex a new territory

11. Effectively impossible to legalise such an annexation

12. And straight out impossible to cash out from it
Read 14 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 21
Even if we have the blueprints, executing their design may be difficult to impossible. What we lack is the:

1. Material culture
2. Knowledge ecosystem

these blueprints had been created within

They are essentially relics of a lost (alien and incomprehensible) civilisation
Image
This applies to the seemingly mundane stuff. For example, even though Russian tanks are based on the Soviet blueprints, Russian tank barrels are of lower quality & durability than Soviet ones. Design may be the same, but details of the original production processes are lost
The nearly absolute reliance of the Russian war machine on the imported metal-cutting machines should be considered in the light of the qualified manual labour pool having shrunk and degraded
Read 5 tweets

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