Taiwan submarine dream surfaces as China tensions rise

TAIPEI -- By the start of next month, Taiwan's long-secretive plans to make its own submarines will become known to the world with the first public appearance of a vessel in the southern port city of Kaohsiung.

What still won't be known after the scheduled debut, assuming early tests are successful: whether the multibillion-dollar program, some seven years in the making, will prove a powerful deterrent to Chinese aggression.

In the face of Chinese pressure on other countries not to supply vessels to Taiwan, Taipei's ambitious plans call for a total of eight domestically made, diesel-electric powered submarines equipped with MK-48 anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare torpedoes made by Lockheed Martin of the U.S., according to Admiral Huang Shu-kuang, convener of the National Submarine Task Force.

The first craft comes with a price tag of $1.54 billion, according to official data. It wasn't immediately clear when further vessels will be constructed, nor how much they would cost.

First mooted in the 1990s under then-President Lee Teng-hui, the idea of a Taiwan-built submarine fleet -- to complement two aging Dutch-made submarines acquired in the 1980s -- has been cherished to varying degrees by successive leaders of the island democracy of 24 million people.

In China, under President Xi Jinping, who took office in 2013, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has inexorably escalated its aggression and threats against Taiwan. China's actions have stoked a sense of urgency on the part of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen to unveil the results of the submarine program before she steps down next May.

They have also instilled in Tsai a desire to leave a legacy as a firm but pragmatic defender of Taiwan who fought Beijing's efforts to discourage foreign companies and governments from supporting her defense and military reforms.

"Why do we need these submarines?" asked Admiral Huang, speaking to Nikkei Asia in a one-on-one interview earlier this month. "The aim is to counter China's efforts to encircle Taiwan for an invasion or blockade."

"The Chinese armed forces want to isolate Taiwan if they launch an attack. Submarines deny their ability to do so and provide room or time for an intervention from the U.S., Japan and others."

Huang, 66, a senior former military chief and navy commander, said it wasn't until Tsai took over as president in 2016 that the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program was able to win strong backing from top governmental leaders and across parties. In the end, countries including the U.S. and U.K. threw their weight behind the plan, Huang said.

Taiwan's defense ministry, which has closely guarded details of the IDS project, declined to provide information on the submarine, from its design to specifications to component sourcing. The island's military spending this year will reach 580 billion New Taiwan Dollars ($18.2 billion), up from NT$380 billion in 2019. The proposed military budget for 2024 is NT$660 billion.

It remains to be seen what kind of deterrence the submarines might provide. China, after all, is investing massively in its own military, especially in the South China Sea and near Taiwan.

Communist China has never ruled Taiwan but claims it as its territory. On Sept. 11, Beijing again sailed one of its aircraft carriers, the Shandong, through Taiwan's southeastern waters and into the Pacific Ocean, according to the Taiwanese defense ministry, while China in recent days sent warships and a large group of fighter jets near Taiwan.

Some experts are convinced the submarines will pay off.

"The submarine program is a very significant step," said Alessio Patalano, Professor of War and Strategy in East Asia at King's College London. "It's a sign of a long-term commitment to plant the seeds for a crucial capability on conventional deterrence.

"The submarine force stands at the heart of the type of deterrence posture Taiwan wishes to possess: pushing its conventional deterrent capabilities away from its shores, hidden beneath the waves, forcing any opponent to invest time and resources to hunt them."

But not everyone is impressed.

"Unfortunately, the IDS platform is apparently a non-air independent propulsion boat and will be outmatched by the PLA's anti-submarine capabilities in a conflict," said Ivan Kanapathy, who has served the White House's National Security Council as a director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia.

Now with Washington-based think tank CSIS, the ex-U.S. official argues that the subs won't deter Beijing's increasing air and naval patrols near Taiwan.

Regardless of their effectiveness, the submarines could mark a milestone in terms of both Taiwan's local defense production and its future defense posture, according to John Dotson, a former U.S. Navy officer and now deputy director at Global Taiwan Institute.

"Taiwan's indigenous naval shipbuilding programs have demonstrated significant advances in recent years in terms of producing lighter surface combatants, such as the Tuo Chiang class of guided-missile patrol craft catamarans," Dotson noted in an analysis. If successful, the submarine would mark a big success in a technically challenging venture, "and one in which Taiwan's shipbuilding industry possessed no previous experience or institutional expertise."

According to Admiral Huang, "The first IDS will undertake harbor acceptance tests on Oct. 1 and sea acceptance tests from next April onwards."

This mission has faced formidable challenges. In a 2019 speech launching the IDS project, Tsai said, "Under pressure from Communist China, [potential equipment suppliers] no longer dare to sell. Domestic manufacturing is the only way forward, but the acquisition of technology and red-zone equipment is an inevitable challenge when we choose this path."

In military parlance, the "red zone" refers to fighting that takes place above the threshold of conventional arms but below that of a general nuclear exchange.

"I am determined to lead the navy, the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology and the shipbuilding industry to jointly overcome these difficulties," Tsai added.

Asked how Taiwan managed to bypass Chinese pressure on the IDS project, Huang, also a senior adviser to Taiwan's National Security Council, said he relied on a network of relationships that reaches into other armed forces as well as foreign defense and security companies. He relied on his contacts to initiate conversations and leaned on elected politicians and lawmakers to pressure their governments not to block deals.

"It is a 'legal and unofficial' strategy," Huang said, "and is not government-to-government. For every component, we reached out to three suppliers because some would turn us down. They also charge a premium compared to official deals."

"Many potential partners backed down from striking deals," Huang said, without identifying the parties involved. "There are instances where we spent around half a year working toward a deal, and the partner withdrew at the moment right before the contract was signed, i.e. a last-minute withdrawal due to political pressure [from China]."

The Chinese will be well aware of Britain's policy of being willing to supply components to Taiwan, according to Michael Reilly, a veteran British diplomat and former senior British Aerospace executive in Beijing. "This is in reaction to growing Chinese assertiveness and pressure on Taiwan," Reilly said.

Admiral Huang rejected the suggestion from some quarters -- including Kanapathy, the former U.S. National Security Council official -- that Taiwan should divert its IDS workforce to develop uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV) and smart torpedoes. "Much of the technology and know-how can transfer to these more relevant capabilities," Kanapathy argued.

But, Admiral Huang countered, "Even UUVs in the U.S. aren't ready for combat, so that's not feasible in Taiwan. We're researching UUVs already, and our subs have smart torpedoes."

He went on: "Chinese warships are relatively slow and vulnerable compared to American nuclear-powered ones. They also need to stop and refuel. Taiwanese subs will be effective against them."

Taiwan's presidential election, which will usher in a new president for the first time in eight years, is less than four months away, but few see the submarine capability being scuppered by the new administration, even if Tsai's replacement is less committed to defense.

"Under [front-runner] Lai Ching-te, it's unlikely Taiwan will drop the submarine scheme, especially given China's continued threat and the necessity of underwater deterrence," said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University.

Lai, Tsai's vice president, hails from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

But even if the more China-leaning Kuomintang's embattled candidate Hou Yu-ih were to win in January, chances are the project will remain, Sung reasoned.

"If Hou takes over and ditches the project, there'll be a considerable backlash," Sung told Nikkei Asia. "Taiwan has invested a lot already, and the opportunity for technology transfer is valuable. This isn't a fight he'll pick."