More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev

Jul 16

This is a very common mistake

“They” who “know better” do not exist as a coherent group. There’s no “them”

If I were to name the most underrated force in the world, I would choose the information asymmetry. We systematically and semis-consciously underestimate how great it is https://t.co/bRt4mSEHxH

https://twitter.com/cat86g/status/1680299632251772928

Consequently, the line of argumentation:

“They can’t do something so obviously stupid/irrational”

Is usually wrong. They absolutely can. Why?

Because it is NOT obvious. You mistakenly think it is obvious because you ignore the elephant in the room - the information asymmetry

Which is more often than not a particular case of the worldview asymmetry and the asymmetry of conceptual frameworks. An even bigger elephant in the room

But that is for another day

Read 11 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jul 15

Soviet military doctrine was shaped by the WWII experience

Russian military doctrine was shaped by the Gulf War impression

The former felt the need to build a strong land army. The latter felt no need to. Very large missile forces + small expeditionary corps was deemed enough

https://twitter.com/mikedako1/status/1679902016871575556

The Russian military doctrine was built upon assumption that a small expeditionary corps will be enough to crush any rival on the post-Soviet space. Meanwhile, large missile forces will disincentivize external players from interfering

Strategic missiles were heavily prioritised

As a result, the Russian army was heavily lopsided. Very strong missiles, very weak land army. The former would compensate for the weakness of the latter

(Russian army, 1997 - till now. Unknown author)

Read 4 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jul 14

Of course Switzerland is a giant. The industry is based upon:

1. Mature mechanical engineering
2. Innovative digital control technology
3. Continuous tradition of craftsmanship

You may try to develop (1) and (2). But you cannot acquire (3) anytime soon. That is just impossible

https://twitter.com/mehmetao/status/1679830104376066048

Much of what is usually referred to as "expertise" (believe the experts) is just infallibility ex cathedra ideology. It is based on a social convention and not on the objective reality. In contrast, the craftsman expertise is real, very difficult to pick and impossible to fake

One of the most destructive effects of the post-Soviet collapse on the Russian military production was the loss of craftsmanship -> tacit knowledge. Sometimes you can reverse engineer the technology later. Sometimes you can't. Anyway, much of it has been lost irreversibly

Read 4 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jul 14

1. Every major military industrial complex in the world relies upon the CNC cutting machines to mass produce precise components -> weaponry

2. No one is capable of producing them without the continuous import of machines, machine parts and expendables

3. From the U.S. allies https://t.co/UZ1qF3YTYA

https://twitter.com/alexykot/status/1679794029775450112

The vast qualitative gap in the machine tool production is of major strategic significance. First, catching development producers produce subpar equipment. Second, supply chain for their production starts in Western Europe or Japan for the lack of alternatives

See Russia (2015)

In 2015, the Russian gov saw itself as absolutely dependent upon the import of machine parts from the Western Europe and Japan. In no single category did it see a chance of substituting the European and the Japanese critical components with the Chinese production

No alternative

Read 15 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jul 1

You can start with this (1/2):

CNC controllers (Fanuc, Siemens, Heidenhain)
PLC controllers (Siemens)
Electric linear actuators (Fanuc, Siemens)
Linear Displacement Sensors (Heidenhain, Siemens, Renishaw)
Spindles (Kessler, Fischer, Ibag)
Electric motors (Siemens, Fanuc)

https://twitter.com/MM_Casto/status/1674753013838143489

Ballscrews (THK, NSK, Hiwin)
Turrets (Duplomatic, Sauter, Baruffaldi)
Hydraulics (Bosch-Rexroth)
End Mills (Sandvik)
Cutting fluids (ZET-Chemie, etc.)
Bearings (SKF)

This list is by no means exhaustive. It just gives you some idea of where to look into

Cutting fluids are critical for the cutting operations -> production of precise parts -> weaponry (such as missiles)

Zet-Chemie is one of cutting fluids producers still operating in Russia Charge ZET-Chemie GmbH retrospectively. They should be fined into bankruptcy

Read 7 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jun 30

Daily reminder

Russian capacity for the production of weaponry is critically dependent upon the uninterrupted supply of the machine tools and parts by the U.S. allies

Why? For the lack of alternatives. China is not an alternative people think it is, esp. when it comes to parts

Sanctions are inefficient in undermining the Russian weaponry production capacities, as they do not adequately target its main chokepoint - production base. More specifically, machining equipment which is necessary to produce precise components and, therefore, weaponry

To be fair, China *is* advancing. Compare the Russian import structure in the 2000s vs 2010s. But it is not anywhere as advanced as laymen believe (yet)

FYI: The advance of China is largely due to localisation of Europ/Jap/Taiw producers, JVs with them and technology transfer

Read 6 tweets

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