Of course Switzerland is a giant. The industry is based upon:
1. Mature mechanical engineering 2. Innovative digital control technology 3. Continuous tradition of craftsmanship
You may try to develop (1) and (2). But you cannot acquire (3) anytime soon. That is just impossible
Much of what is usually referred to as "expertise" (believe the experts) is just infallibility ex cathedra ideology. It is based on a social convention and not on the objective reality. In contrast, the craftsman expertise is real, very difficult to pick and impossible to fake
One of the most destructive effects of the post-Soviet collapse on the Russian military production was the loss of craftsmanship -> tacit knowledge. Sometimes you can reverse engineer the technology later. Sometimes you can't. Anyway, much of it has been lost irreversibly
For this reason, assuming that without mass import of equipment from Western Europe/Japan Russia would be "stuck in the 1980s" is wrong. It would be all the way downhill. Once you lose the craftsmanship, doing it old way is no longer viable, as most of the loss is irreversible
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The vast qualitative gap in the machine tool production is of major strategic significance. First, catching development producers produce subpar equipment. Second, supply chain for their production starts in Western Europe or Japan for the lack of alternatives
See Russia (2015)
In 2015, the Russian gov saw itself as absolutely dependent upon the import of machine parts from the Western Europe and Japan. In no single category did it see a chance of substituting the European and the Japanese critical components with the Chinese production
Russian capacity for the production of weaponry is critically dependent upon the uninterrupted supply of the machine tools and parts by the U.S. allies
Why? For the lack of alternatives. China is not an alternative people think it is, esp. when it comes to parts
Sanctions are inefficient in undermining the Russian weaponry production capacities, as they do not adequately target its main chokepoint - production base. More specifically, machining equipment which is necessary to produce precise components and, therefore, weaponry
To be fair, China *is* advancing. Compare the Russian import structure in the 2000s vs 2010s. But it is not anywhere as advanced as laymen believe (yet)
FYI: The advance of China is largely due to localisation of Europ/Jap/Taiw producers, JVs with them and technology transfer
The media and the academia are obsessed with the unimportant. Once you interiorise this principle, their obsession with "Putin's philosopher" Dugin becomes almost forgivable
There's no philosopher at the Putin's court
The king doesn't need a philosopher
He needs a jester🧵
As I said, obsession with the (supposed) "philosopher behind the Putin's plan" is almost forgivable, considering that the dominant Western discourse in Russia is mostly a projection of Western intellectuals. They project their fears, of course. But also their hopes and dreams
Being the King's Philosopher, a brain behind the tyrant, has been a wet dream of intellectuals at least since the days of Plato. It almost always ended the same. After all these millennia, intellectuals could have learned a basic truth:
1. Kornilov putsch fails 2. Purges against its real or imaginary supporters follow 3. Two months later the Bolsheviks come to power
Focusing on whether the putsch was orchestrated by the government (it probably was) is missing the point. Staged or not, its consequences are real
There is often an implicit assumption that the "serious" ventures have serious consequences, while the "non-serious" (stage, orchestrated, just a show) ones don't
This assumption is completely and fundamentally wrong. It is usually the other way around
As a general rule, anything serious and long lasting can commence only non-seriously
Consequently, what had been started seriously will most probably lead nowhere
Prigozhin's mutiny looks shady. And that is fine. Many coup stories sound shady even in retrospective, as they often included some elements of 4D chess by the political leadership. Still, their consequences were real.
So let's talk of the consequnces🧵
Raising a mutiny in the south, far off from the capital may sound like a dumb plan. Unless this was not a plan at all. My hypothesis: it looks like a false start
23 June - Wagner mutiny
24-25 June - "Scarlet Sails" in St Petersburg
Both Putin and Medvedev were expected to come
The ruling gang is first and foremost a St Petersburg gang. The core of the Russian leadership including Putin, Medvedev and many others including Prigozhin were originally an extensive crony network from St Petersburg. With Putin's succession in 2000 they became the regime