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NEW: #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed.

(1/13) isw.pub/UkrWar062323

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午前1:35 · 2023年6月24日

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@TheStudyofWar

11時間

2/ Early reports following #Prigozhin’s statements suggest that Russian internal security forces are activating in response to Prigozhin’s statements and possible Wagner moves, primarily in #Moscow and #Rostov, and the #Kremlin appears opposed to Prigozhin’s actions.

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3/ #Prigozhin set informational conditions for this effort earlier in the day by accusing the Russian MoD and unnamed oligarchs of deceiving #Putin and the Russian public in order to launch the 2022 Russian invasion of #Ukraine.

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4/ #Prigozhin likely intends to truly conduct an armed rebellion against the Russian MoD, rather than expecting Kremlin support to compel MoD leadership changes or only escalate rhetorically.

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5/ It is therefore most likely that #Prigozhin fully intends for #Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in #Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against #Moscow.

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6/ ISW is unable to confirm exactly where the bulk of #Wagner forces are currently located, but it currently appears more likely that #Prigozhin intends for Wagner to move on MoD assets in #Rostov.

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7/ An armed #Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in #Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on #Russia’s war effort in #Ukraine.

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8/ #Rostov-on-Don houses both the headquarters of the SMD, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern #Ukraine.

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9/ #Prigozhin’s apparent start of an armed rebellion is the culmination of his campaign to retain control over his military forces, and he likely views the rebellion as an existential survival effort.

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10/ The MoD’s recent demands that #Wagner fully subordinate itself to the MoD would entail #Prigozhin losing control of his parallel military structure, and therefore both his main source of influence and his means for avoiding the consequences of his public self-promotion.

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11/ Prigozhin’s likely intention was to gain the allegiance of senior Russian officers and military personnel, but he is unlikely to secure sufficient military support considering that Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin denounced Prigozhin’s call for armed rebellion.

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12/ Even if the #Wagner Group can credibly threaten the MoD, #Putin is incredibly unlikely to acquiesce to a successful effort by #Prigozhin to topple the MoD.

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13/ Due to rapidly evolving events, the data cutoff for the portion of this update covering Prigozhin’s actions was 6:00pm ET. ISW will cover subsequent reports in tomorrow's assessment, but events will likely have developed further between the drafting and posting of this update

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Apparently I observed Prigozhin’s attempt 1.5 months earlier than the whole world

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Cheng-Wei Lai

@ChengWeiLai2

5月7日

返信先: @ChengWeiLai2さん

Recently, Prigozhin publicly announced to withdraw troops from Bakhmut, and I see that pro-Ukrainian supporters on the internet are more than happy. However, if you really think that this is just a simple internal conflict, then you are too naive. Prigozhin's withdrawal is in… さらに表示

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Ukraine

needs to take advantage of this situation and break through where possible. This situation may force Russian

troops to be relocated from the frontlines to inside Russia itself. But at the very least this has to be devastating to frontline morale. Perfect cocktail… さらに表示

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I’m in tears of joy

Coup. The word you’re looking for is coup.

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“Unlikely to succeed”? Bookmark this.

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CaptRedacted#naFoScott

@NAFOCaptRFScott

8時間

You state "Wagner likely does not have the necessary level of independent access to the materiel required to militarily depose the MoD leadership". Were Wagner to "move on MOD assets in Rostov" they might solve that problem, no?

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CaptRedacted#naFoScott

@NAFOCaptRFScott

8時間

And it may not just be Wagner...

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Igor Sushko

@igorsushko

9時間

Russia: Military columns rushing from Azov to Rostov-on-Don. These are likely Russian units that switched to Prigozhin's side.

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unroll

Namaste, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672418 Talk to you soon.

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Thread by @TheStudyofWar on Thread Reader App

@TheStudyofWar: NEW: #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which...

unroll please

Hallo, please find the unroll here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672418 Have a good day.

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Thread by @TheStudyofWar on Thread Reader App

Chinese satellites know where Prigozhin is and will pass that on to RUS intelligence and military. Then there will be a precision strike on his combat HQ. If he survives 48 hours, it will be a bigly win for him

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Snarkus Aurelius, PhD

@SnarkusAurelius

10時間

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Another implosion?

Need more maps to cover which Russians control each area of #Russia. #Putin didn't expect his SMO would be needed in Russia against other Russians.

I wouldn’t be so quick to suggest prigozhin can’t succeed. For a multitude of reasons.

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From “Kyiv in 3 days” to “Can I catch a ride to Uruguay.”

Lenin was unlikely to succeed when he got off the train

hello!!!

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(((Tendar)))

@Tendar

10時間

Wagner forces have surrounded the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military district in Rostov. It is really happening… #Coup #Russia #Rostov

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