Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 24 June 2023.
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[1/5] In the early hours of 24 June 2023, the feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the Russian MoD escalated into outright military confrontation.
[2/5] In an operation characterised by Prigozhin as a ‘march for freedom’, Wagner Group forces crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations.
[3/5] In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner has almost certainly occupied key security sites, including the HQ which runs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.
[4/5] Further Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.
[5/5] Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.
If Russian army doesn’t start fighting Wagner after Putin’s address, it becomes clear he is no longer in charge. My money is on Putin not surviving this.
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Wagner is literally walking right into Moscow unopposed! This does not look good for current regime. The question is will these guys fight FOR Wagner because at some point I assume the army will start pushing back.
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Here's hoping that this marks the twilight of Putin's reign, paving the way for a peaceful transition and the dawn of a harmonious era between our nations 
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Are you going to need two “latest situation” morning briefs. One for Ukraine and one for Russia internally
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I was trolled by a couple of bots when I pointed to pressure on the Kremlin in response to a previous #DefenceHQ update. Seems I was right. Wagner’s Ring Cycle
Some of the best news I’ve heard, Slava Ukraini, down with the terrorist state 
I'm enjoying Russia's internal strife right now, but I dread what will happen if Prigozhin actually ends up in charge when this is over.
I can't picture that butcher toning down the war once he's got his hands on the wheel.
If anything, he'll escalate.
The 'outright military confrontation' implies an element of hot combat, whereas the notion of troop acquiescence suggests otherwise. This messaging appears contradictory.
I was enjoying Glastonbury bit Lutin getting kicked out will be better
Think this is likely a staged withdrawal from Ukraine , to not lose face
this is the 3rd most important update MOD has provided since February 2022 but possibly #1 soon
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You’re being played surely? It’s a Wagner- Putin plot. No coup. No infighting. Wagner wants to withdraw without losing face. Putin wants to blame his military leaders for his failures. Wagner march back in Russia in protest. All happy.
Obviously, any conflict between Putin and his Mercenaries can only be good for Ukraine. If Wagner Units are aiming to get to Moscow, it feels like we are missing information. What would stop the Russian airforce bombing them out of existence on the road there? /1
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