EAST ASIA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 - SECRET R National Intelligence Council The Director of Central Intelligence Washington, D.C. 20505 NIC# 02483-84 27 April 1984 MEMORANDiA~i FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence SUBJECT: East Asia Warning and Forecast Meeting Representatives of the Intelligence Community met on 18 April 1984 to consider the attached subjects. 25X1 David D. Gries National Intelligence Officer for East Asia Attachment: Warning and Forecast Report CL BY SIGNER DECL OADR Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 SECRET Moslem Strength in ASEAN Nations: Current Situation The growth of Moslem activism in ASEAN nations is both an ideological and social phenomena, providing an acceptable avenue to register resistance to central government policies and the forces of modernization. The fundamentalist component of this activism, though persistent, is muted, and not yet threatening. Outside support for ASEAN's Moslem groups often is provided by Libya, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which vie for influence through financial and educational aid. ASEAN countries are responding differently to the emergence of fundamentalism: Indonesia uses a carrot and stick approach, mainly the stick, to depoliticize it. In Malaysia, Mahathir coopts and institutionalizes fundamentalism. Whether Mahathir can give free rein to Saudi Arabians, Libyans and Iranians operating in Kuala Lumpur without having them turn against Malaysia remains in doubt. Moslem activism will remain a potentially destabilizing force in ASEAN societies. If their strength grows, it will create tensions (possibly destabilizing) with the non-Moslem population. Middle Eastern influence, particularly Libyan, could threaten US and Western interests in ASEAN particularly as increasing numbers of Moslem youths, trained and radicalized in the Middle East return to their native .countries. Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 Q Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4 ? Next month's Warning and Forecast Meeting will be held on 23 Aiay 1984 at 1400 hours in Room 7E62. Please phone your attendance intentions to by COB 21 May. I encourage you to submit agenda items for the meetings. ease make your su~~estions by 9 May. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2009/04/02 :CIA-RDP87T00307R000100020002-4