I received the following from a friend who is well plugged in with the Ukrainian side. I consider his information reliable:
Volodomyr Zelensky visited Chasov Yar today to kick off an offensive to relieve Bakhmut and push the Russians back. A number of armored and artillery brigades are being moved down from the North to support such a relief operation.
Chasov Yar may be four or so miles from Bakhmut. Zelensky can no longer chance a visit to Bakhmut as he did earlier this month.
As we have noted before there are somewhere between 15 to 20,000 UKA fighting inside Bakhmut, and the UKA area of control is shrinking and also bifurcated between a larger group in the western center of the city and the remainder in the north east of the city.
Sources report that Leopard and Challenger tanks have been moved into position for the relief operation, even though the room for tank operations is not great because of the bad weather, rain and mud.
Some experts think this relief operation will last only four or five days and may start as early as tomorrow. It can’t go much longer than that because the UKA has limited reserves and cannot afford a long battle or stalemate with the Russians.
It is anticipated this will be a very bloody battle and could be decisive for both sides.
Zelensky is acting outside of the advice he is getting from the US/NATO which desires a frontal attack on Crimea and not at Bakhmut or, further to the south, Avdviika, which is also under Russian attack and potential encirclement.
If the Russians lose at Bakhmut it pressages a much longer war, perhaps years.
Up till now the Russians have been operating slowly and methodically, but this will go out the window with a fierce rescue operation.
If the Ukrainians lose, it suggests that the UKA will have squandered much of its offensive capability, and it could lead to a chaotic outcome.
The odds are stacked against the Ukrainians. They cannot match the Russians in terms of artillery shells and rate of fire. Russia, like the United States and NATO, has robust ISR (i.e., Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities. That means Russia should be monitoring the build up of Ukrainian assets in Chasov Yar and should be prepared to bring to bear an enormous volume of fire on any attacking columns.
My friend made quite an understatement in noting that, “bad weather, rain and mud” create a problem for the tanks. There are not multiple points of access available to the tanks and they will be facing Anti Tank Guided Missiles, artillery, bombs delivered by combat air, sea and air launched missiles. While I am loathe to reference previous battles in history, this certainly appears to be a Pickett’s Charge moment.
Russia enjoys a critical logistics capability in this looming fight. It can rapidly reinforce troops in that sector and it can supply the ammunition necessary to sustain intense fire. There are reports in the last few days that the intensity of fighting in Bakhmut has lessened. While lack of ammunition is one possibility (an unlikely one), I think a better explanation is that Russia is witting of the upcoming attack and is laying in wait to conduct a devastating ambush.
I want to remind you of a point I have made in previous pieces on the Bakhmut situation — this is not the only point of attack for the Russian side. The Russians are pressing forward on multiple fronts and forcing the Ukrainians to make some hard choices about where to deploy scant reinforcements and munitions. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has trained, experienced and well-equipped reserves near the front. The Russian responses will either confirm the claims of Western analysts, who insist the Russians are inept and poorly trained, or it will destroy that meme.
A Russian defeat in Bakhmut will not alter Russia’s objectives in this war. It would lead to a shakeup in military command and a significant escalation in Russia’s use of force against Ukraine. It would buy Ukraine some time and re-energize the West’s commitment to expand support to Ukraine.
A Ukrainian defeat, however, will be devastating and decisive. If Russia crushes the counter-offensive it will represent the slaughter of some of Ukraine’s most capable troops and the loss of recently supplied equipment and ammunition that is already in short supply. A Ukraine failure will eliminate Western optimism that Ukraine can produce a military miracle and will make NATO allies think twice before agreeing to pour more resources into the maw of Ukraine.
My money is on Russia.
“Root’in for Putin.”
A Ukraine failure won’t change anything. They will still fight because the West won’t agree to a ceasefire. Zelensky is just a puppet because if he even brings up the idea of ceasefire with his nazi counsel, they will hang him, just like one of the peace negotiators – shot in the head. The fact that UK is now giving uranium shells to Ukraine is a signal that the clowns want to escalate. I just hope Russia is just lying in wait for all those western tanks to come rolling in and then destroy those tank – but at least capture one of them for research.
They are old tanks. Not much there to research.
Did your friend provide analysis of how Ukraine will win in Bakhmut given the facts you present? Seems the best Ukraine can hope for is a reprieve of a few weeks before Russia restarts their incessant and methodical march.
“will make NATO allies think twice…”
Yeah, I’m thinking not.
They need to think once, first.
Ides of March roll on. Desperate. Appears to be potentially worse than Ardennes. No gas for Hitler no shells for Vlod!
It has taken me a while to understand what has been staring everyone in the face for months. Forget about the theatrics, comments, complaints or assertions about ammo shortage for the Russians coming from everywhere. I understand that the quote you gave is the Ukrainian take from a friend but, thinking about the possibility of Russia losing this one is garbage. It is very far from reality. This is exactly what they wanted from Bakhmut.
Brian Berletic did a video on defenses a while back, months ago. It demonstrated basics, the concepts, fields of fire, channeling ect. I am far from the sharpest observer out here but, sooner or later I get it, without having to be handheld to the truth. There is a very nasty truth to the surprize Russia has creaated.
The entire Russian line is a not a series of various defensive configurations. It is a single defensive structure, disguised as hodgepodge. And the center of this, well it´s name on the map is Bakhmut. And those idiots pretending to be planners over in NATO et all and the Uki command are stepping face first into the kill zone. This will not be pretty. For example, they have dragged their arty out into the open, without adequate air defense, in support of this mess. Confusion has been sown between NATO and the Uki´s about where to attack. Oh yeah, they think they know what they are doing but, not really.
I know that I am calling this a few days early ( not the first time and sometimes I am not wrong ) but, I am just tired about people talking about the Russians losing this. Get the popcorn going is my advice.
Thank you for the article Larry. I wish well to all.
John
One thing I don’t understand in this war… if Russia has robust ISR, why it’s not possible for them to destroy the NATO material before it arrives at the front? There’s not a lot of entry points of tanks and artillery in Ukraine, why doesn’t Russia destroy everything near the border with Poland?
A very interesting comment. I am thinking the same.
Right.
Like all the “depleted uranium” munitions Rishi Sunak (Great Britain!) has just promised to send Zelensky?
I must assume that once Russia has guaranteed a victory for its newly acquired Russian territory in Donbas that Biden’s intent will be to render the Donbas uninhabitable?
The U.S. “Falluja” Part Two with malformed babies and poisoned land and water for generations?
The un-elected Sunak, US puppet tool.
Disgusting.
Perhaps THIS will get the British to rise up! God knows the Nordstream war crime couldn’t do it.
Here is hoping Russia will be following the introduction of these deadly munitions and will dispatch of them somewhere near Kiev perhaps?
Exactly.
The standard response from Russia fans is that Russia actually *wants* all the goodies to come into Ukraine so they can destroy them and wipe out Ukraine and NATO simultaneously. Russia, apparently, is casualty adverse as long as they are killing more Ukrainians than losing themselves. Also, Russians, I’m told, don’t care about time or territory. So there’s virtually no risk as long as they can keep raining artillery rounds down on Ukrainian forces. Russia will never run short on ammo, men, political will, funding or any other stuff that mere mortal militaries concern themselves with when at war.
I find all that to be farfetched excuse making; right up there with the garbage the neocons put out there, but that’s just me. btw, I’m a stupid crazy American trailer trash moron according to resident genius internet warriors on Russia’s side. So maybe you should stop asking simple and obvious questions lest you end up in the trailer next door to me. OTOH, maybe we can trade cousins or something after the KKK rally. Do you have any purty cousins? Do they at least have a few teeth?
Eric,
I’m with you on this one. It’s tempting to jump on to band wagons and miss the obvious questions.
Another thing – weren’t the Leopard II’s and Challengers etc. months away from delivery? Yet we now have suggestions of finding them at the front in Bakhmut in the “mud”. Who is operating these? Are there NATO tank crews operating these, or was this in the pipeline long before it entered the media circus and Ukrainian crews have been trained?
I think all of us and Russia need’s to be a bit careful about this loud shouting about NATO running out of everything. NATO spent 8+ years laying a trap for Russia, to weaken it in a prolonged proxy war. Perhaps this is why Russia has progressed the SMO with such caution – keeping the shelling going, destroying armies and equipment from a safe distance, while the US dollar hegemony and the Empire of Lies commits slow suicide and humiliates itself before the world.
No not all were months away from delivery if we were to believe the news… Few were available immediately about a dozen or two.
It’s like teaching kids to parse a sentence. 200 odd tanks were promised and just about a dozen or two were available for immediate use. Thus the media said that most were very far away from available for delivery. The little child brain takes the last part of the news and then tries to ask smart questions.
I’m a stupid crazy American trailer trash moron… — Eric Newhill
No, you’re just a Mockingbird, singing the Empire’s songs.
Spanky, both you and newdill are correct about him.
@Spanky –
Russia intends to kill as many Ukie troops as possible, if they destroy the ammo, tanks, etc, prior to reaching the front then the soldiers will not be with those units. This has been the game Russia has been playing…the long game, the patient game, the game of drawing the Ukies to the Russians where Wagner and Russian troops kill them.
There is one road in and out of Bakhmut at present. Russia could destroy it but then how would they be able to draw more Ukies into Bakhmut or, even better, have a turkey shoot on the Ukies when they use the one road to retreat on?
The only place where Russia is lacking, in my view anyway, is they are slow to destroy the 155’s and other artillery and rocket systems that are being used to shell the civilian villages behind the line. Those pieces hit and get pretty quick so they are harder to track down and destroy.
It’s easier to kill Ukranians behind Leopards? And it’s easier to kill Ukranians while being killed by artillery even if it’s 1/10 of the Russian?
This is not exactly easy to understand. To imagine an Ukrainian counter offensive is out of reach of my imagination and yet they’re sending leopards. Something is not right in these tactical and strategic analysis.
Because – they are doing just as said 1 year ago – denazifying and demilitarizing…Putin always says things, there is no one to hear from the fools ruling the west…
And that means denazifying/demilitarizing all troops (NATO) that will stay on the way firing a gun…it is much easier to clear most of NATO weapons on this arena….
Look at the so called “bundesfer” – total 300 tanks out of which 126 are operational…compare it with the 4000 already lost by 404…and the 16 000+ operational of Russia…western elites simply cannot do math…simple 2-3 grade one.
Russians are interested in long attritional war – europe is already on its knees economically, soft winter really helped, but next…migrants will shake these ugly societies…France is just the start
What makes you think equipment isn’t being destroyed on the way in?
Keep in mind we’re talking about things inside Ukraine’s zone of control. Who is going to publish evidence of these strikes? Ukraine? Russia? (To show how it’s being spotted?)
Somethings we will just not know until long after the war is over….
I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge or superior expertise.
And certainly, if there’s a volume of attack beyond which the Russians will be overrun, then your point is made.
But if it’s all the same, why waste a cruise missile to destroy a tank near Lvov, when you can have it delivered for destruction like a fresh pizza by an artillery shell in Bakhmut?
My thinking would be because of the range. To destroy all at Polish border would use massive amounts of long range missiles.
Let them get close in tighter massed groupings and artillery, ATGMs, aircraft, and drones can be used. All much cheaper than Khinzals, kalibres, etc.
The answer is because Ukraine is a large country with a very long border and Russia can’t monitor every mile 24/7, just not feasible. They don’t have boots on the ground in the West so they would expend a lot of precision missiles and these are not stationary targets. Easier just to destroy the equipment on the battlefield. Seems to be working fine!
Very interesting. Do you think that the increase of ammunition production in the West is going to change the outcome of the war?
Thanks
West ammunition production is the new wonder weapon?
Got it.
Way too little, way too late.
I posted a comment it seems it didn’t work the first time (if it did please erase it)…
One thing I don’t understand in this war is why doesn’t Russia destroy everything before it arrives the front. If there’s a robust ISR, there’s not many entry point in Ukraine for artillery, tanks and so on, why doesn’t Russia destroy most of it near the border with Poland?
I find the notion of Western optimism difficult to believe. In your opinion the ocidental liders believe in what they say? Stoltenberg believes what he says?
war is one thing for sure: unpredictable.
We shall see.
With Ukraine’s defeat appearing imminent, will NATO/U.S. really decide between putting troops on the ground or using tactical nukes as some commentators are mentioning as of late.
No, of course not. The main goal of the US is to spread fear in Europe with the help of Putin and get the capital to be evacuated to the US. Once that happens, Europe could turn into a desert. Putin will get his, the US will get its.
Neither of them is going to die in a nuclear armageddon.
It’s odd, for sure. No element of surprise at all. I suppose it’s one way to get all this over in a hurry. Not sure what’s going through Zelenskyy’s coke filled head. Hard to imagine a Russian defeat here, though maybe too much time in the echo chamber has them believing there’s some kind of chance. Could it be a feint in preparation for an assault elsewhere? But then, where? Or, digging deep on this, is NATO going full bore to back it up with air power and missiles? If that’s the case, it’s WWIII.
It makes no sense to send all those men off to slaughter. But then, there’s never been anything sensible in all this so far. I’m definitely interested in seeing what the perspectives will be on this.
They don’t care about men.
Simplicius76 wrote in detail here
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-31923-and-weekend-mailbag
about the force levels of the counteroffensive the Ukranazis are preparing to launch at Artëmovsk. If the quoted figures for personnel and equipment are accurate it will be an attempt similar to the Manstein attempt to break through to Stalingrad in 1943: if it succeeds, it will be a dramatic propaganda victory and will definitely slow down the Russians. If it fails, as in 1943, the failure will set up a cascading collapse of the front (the fall of Stalingrad forced Hitler to withdraw from the Caucasus and its oilfields).
Either way the war will not end here.
Russian airpower will come into play and decimate any Ukrainian troop and armor concentrations.
I think it is insane. But yes, I think they are pushing a counterattack into Bakhmut. The Russians must see this coming, as you state with their surveillance capabilities. Which to a degree is why I think their artillery and missile salvos have been a bit lighter recently. They are saving up.
The Russian side I understand. They have prepared. If the Ukrainians do have a large force, they will retreat and bleed the Ukrainians if necessary. The Russians won’t go Alamo. That assumes the Ukes can press thru hell on earth.
The Ukrainians? Wow. Logically? Fall back to the Dnieper. Fortify Kharkiv and Odessa. Plan to survive. Not logically, but insane? Go Kamikaze and plan on NATO riding to the rescue. As Larry has astutely pointed out “Intelligence or lack of it”.
The CIA believes the Ukrainian hopium. The Ukrainians believe the Ukrainian hopium. All you hear and read is the Western media hopium. Fuck, maybe they think they can win. But they have a circle jerk of no one actually saying any alternative narrative. It is Jim Jones and the Kool-Aid. People do this shit.
It is why I avoid the human race and enjoy my dog. They will die for nothing. With nary a thought. I don’t mind dying. I want to outlive my dog, because I don’t trust anyone else taking care of her. But I’m 63. Two gunshots. One stabbing. 9 totaled cars. Colon cancer. 3 divorces. Beat unconscious twice. Fuck. Death will be a blessing. I’m just too stubborn to do it.
But this is where analysis and common sense all fall apart. It is insane to go into Bakhmut. It makes no sense. It also doesn’t make any sense to be an Adolf Hitler worshipping swastika wearer. These people are not stable. The Matrix movie. People are a virus. They exist to destroy.
So yeah. The crazies push into Bakhmut. The Russians fall back and bleed them. The Ukes are out of people, and the Russians move right back and start pressing all up and down the line. And maybe NATO moves, and the world blows up. And the blood flows. Huzzah, human race.
I have not heard of this from any other source. I favor the Russians in this conflict.
What the newly-created Ukrainian force needs in a “live fire training exercise”. They need to test everything and gain valuable experience thereby.
It would be wise to commit a small portion of its forces to this offensive -but large enough to test combined arms capabilities up to general command and staff level- and to take limited objectives.
For example, this force could fight to open road and rail access to Bakmut. Ideally, the bulk of forces inside Bakmut could then be withdrawn. The retreat could be declared a great tactical victory and a lot of experience could be acquired.
Another Great Ukrainian Counter Offensive?
22-03-2023: Bakhmut is not encircled, however, all roads in and out of it are under Russian artillery fire. Over the last weeks the fighting, to complete the encirclement, has largely stopped.
No one seems to know why the operation has been halted.
The Russian traitors have stopped the fighting so that the chosen can walk out and fight another day. The neo-Nazis will be ordered to fight to the death.
The preferred option was for the traitors to order a withdrawal allowing the Ukrainians to stage another miraculous counter offensive, just like in Kherson and east of Kharkov.
However, the Wagner Group refused to cooperate, so they cut off it’s ammunition.
But even that did not work as Prigozhin was still able to get ammunition from Akhmat, and a few other units.
Eventually Prigozhin was reduced to calling favors that enabled him to get ammunition without it being processed directly through the Russian military. So the traitors took away his phones.
Since March 1, due to lack of ammunition, the Wagner group has not tried to complete the encirclement of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin’s promise that the Wagner group would take Bakhmut, in spite of the Russian MOD, was premised on his being able to find ammunition elsewhere. It appears that he was not able to do so. Thus his troops are wasting their time fighting for the small village of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, far to the north-west of Bakhmut.
While the Wagner group plays around near Orikhovo-Vasylivka we hear that Ukraine is planning another miraculous counter offensive to free Bakhmut.
As you may guess, any counter offensive that lacks secrecy is likely to fail.
And this supposed Ukrainian counter offensive certainly lacks secrecy.
So, it is all bullshit, complete and utter bullshit.
You may ask yourself where this large force of men and tanks is coming from.
If it is from around Chasiv Yar, one asks, why have they been sitting in Chasiv Yar, sipping tea, and watching their compatriots in Bakhmut being slaughtered? Strange behavior.
If they are coming from Kramatorsk, then how are they going to make it across the flat terrain to Bakhmut unless allowed to by the Russian High Command?
Either way, there is no large force near Bakhmut with which to launch another miraculous Ukrainian counter offensive,…. but then,… I guess you only need a very small force for a MIRACULOUS Ukrainian counter offensive.
“but then,… I guess you only need a very small force for a MIRACULOUS Ukrainian counter offensive.”
Speaking of small Ukrainian counter offensives,… the one that “took” Kherson comprised a force of zero tanks, zero pieces of artillery, zero planes, and zero men. And it routed the Russians completely.
It was truly a MIRACULOUS Ukrainian counter offensive.
This is what I’m talking about. Why is Ukraine able to establish a staging area a mere four miles from Bakhmut? If Russia has air superiority, super excellent eyes in the sky, awesome artillery and fire control systems and mountains of ammo to burn, then there is no way that Ukraine could mass troops and armor any where near Bakhmut; especially not a mere 4 miles away.
Another question – are you sure that Russia (Wagner more properly) has built adequate defenses while also attacking? Or will they be caught in relatively exposed positions? I’m guessing the latter, which is why Zelensky wants to attack now (assuming there really is an attack coming).
I thought the Ukrainian army was pretty much wiped out and will totally collapse any day now. Yet they can launch a big push on Bakhmut?
Will Prighozin really want his mercs to be further reduced in such a battle? How will the personalities and politics of that situation impact the coming action?
IMO, 50/50 Russia prevails if Ukraine counter-attacks – and I’m being generous to Russia. And no, I don’t buy the post hoc rationalizations like Russia is playing 5D chess and deliberating suckering Ukraine into an attack. If Russia had sufficient troops to do that, they wouldn’t be slugging it out there and taking a thousand casualties a week +/-. They would have taken Bakhmut long ago. They can always kill Ukrainians in the next sector of the Ukrainian defense in depth, since body counts seem to be the metric of Russia success preferred by internet Russia cheerleading section.
Oh yeah, silly me, I keep forgetting. Russians don’t care about territory or time. Maybe they’ll just flee Bakmut on account of that philosophy. So that won’t count as a loss because Russia doesn’t think that way, like stupid Americans.
Russia’s goal is to demilitarize Ukraine. Allow them to assemble and deploy in the open and then destroy them. If they are in bunkers in Chasov Yar the chance of decimating the force is low. Understand?
Precisely! I would expect heavy use of thermobaric munitions.
All western media and specialists say the Russians are inept, incompetent, unprofessional, and much more. I don’t like to see the same kind of analysis regarding the Ukrainians or they American masters — I don’t find that credible. Something doesn’t add up. The Russian casualties keep also adding up, they’re certainly more than the US in Vietnam already. And the Ukrainians proved to be fierce. I don’t know…
“… If Russia had sufficient troops to do that, they wouldn’t be slugging it out there and taking a thousand casualties a week +/-”
I’ve not seen that estimate anywhere? It would seem total killed in action are closer to 15,000K. Even if one doubles or even triples that, it is a far cry from 1,000/day which would give us ~400,000 killed in 13 months of fighting.
Also, Ukrainian killed or missing in action reported by Ukrainian sources is around 325,000. Given numerous other reports and also the ratio of RF:UFA artillery fire, the casualty ratio is between 7-10 to 1 in favour of Russia.
That Russia’s objective is to demilitarise rather than capture land mass is a very smart one, IMO, and it seems to be working. In whatever way the NATO crazies led by the neocon nut jobs may keep escalating, Russia still retains the upper hand with high reserves and short supply lines to its front. On the diplomatic front outside Empire Fantasyland, Russia is crushing the U.S.
This will go into the “You make me sick!” file:
https://youtu.be/IhS_7tVv_XQ
My soul sista!
Newdill makes shit up Elial, haven’t you noticed?
Ignore him, don’t feed the troll.
Not being American I don’t know about Picket’s charge, but assume sending waves of men into an artillery barrage didn’t end well. Neither did the charge of the Light Brigade, nor the ANZAC troops in Gallipoli doing the same against Turkish machine gun emplacements.
Seems there is no end of militaries just charging into what is probably certain death presumably with some vague hope that it will somehow end in their favor. There is something to be said for leaders or their families needing to be leading from the front, that would be the end of suicide charges, or even war altogether, the current crop of sissies aren’t of the same mettle as kings of old.
Pickett’s Charge was the final battle at Gettysburg in July 1863. The Confederate troops charged across an open field, slightly uphill, against entrenched Union troops with artillery. It was a slaughter.
A senseless slaughter
X Billups says: here ya go
1) An errant missile in NATO territory is exactly the justification NATO needs for WW3.
2) Annihaltion of the enemy’s army (fighters) is what inevitably silences all their weapons.
“The defeat of the enemy means the destruction of his forces, whether by death, injury, or any other means to make him stop fighting.” -Carl von Clausewitz.
3:The Realities.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/usnato-isr-addendum-deep-dive-into
Very interesting link, but doesn’t answer my questions and I have some more… How come all this US feed real time data killing Russians is not an act of war? Add nord stream, the demonizing campaign, the sanctions…
The Russians are a patience bunch, but one of these days their patience will run out I’m affraid.
Canadian here. Spoke to a few people who are paid to track this. Could this just be a pure propaganda move the western press can turn into something that is really nothing? The outdated Leopards and other relics are most likely going to be used as artillery platforms. The Ukes are going to go in with infantry and make a lot of noise and video for the media. Russia will probably just ignore it and probe hard in other areas. Seems like a waste really … if its true.
Perhaps a “great” offense north of Bahkmut is the most logical choice for Ukr … it’s an area only recently captured by Russia and is unlikely to yet have comprehensive lines of defense similar to other well established fronts. Logistics from Kramatorsk down the major highway are also probably reasonable.
Fighting in the area’s open fields in the current bad weather and poor visibility will make it difficult for both sides. Russia’s forces may also have the disadvantage that the 10K Ukr troops currently in Bahkmut may try to break out northwards to attack Russia from the rear. Most unlikely Russia would lose but perhaps may decide to withdraw from part of recently captured territory to more easily defended positions depending on the size of advancing Ukr forces ….. always supposing that Ukr actually makes such an attack.
I read stories about what quick learners Ukranians are with respect to whatever NATO is sending in. Can’t help but wonder who’s really going to be crewing those Leopards and manning the Patriot when it goes in? Too many powerful but unscrupulous people who think they can’t afford to lose or ever be wrong.
I remember last Fall in Kharkov. Seemed like much of the combat videos popping up online featured American-accented English-speaking soldiers.
Western Propaganda on the vintage tanks coming from RU:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11890123/Desperate-Putin-70-brings-Soviet-era-T-55-tanks-old-retirement.html
What is better? An M1 garand with a 2.5 power scope…or no rifle?
Russia grinds the meat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAfKM63KP-c
It’s Rocky Balboa…VS … Apollo Creed
In the meat locker…with Nationalist Russia…Russia Orthadox Catholic…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjX20gL-rnc
and the man in the back said everyone attack
What I worry about is the British Challenger tanks firing DU ammunition, and if those tanks are in Bakhmut, what happens then?
I think I get why Russia is slow-walking this war – Ukrainian defences and preserving one’s own men. The body counts for both alive and dead are conflicting. Ditto for shells and weapons.
Thank you for this blog.
Russian Armed forces today have control over the two main routes linking Artemovsk to Ukrainian areas. That extends to more than 10 km direct firing power for each route. For sure the Russians are already informed about Neonazi proxies troops gathering around Chasiv Yar. The lull in fighting is basically an invitation card to Zelinski to launch his counteroffensive at this instant when everything is nice and quiet there.
My guess is the counter attack on Bakhmut is false information to throw the Russians off. Ukrainians know how to play Maskirova too. Deception.
It makes no sense as:-
– Zelensky had plenty of time to withdraw troops had he wanted to
– it could be a suicide mission and stalemate at best
– Zelensky has British body guards, American houses and does what he is told
The only possible rationale for doing this would be as a way to end the war in a bloody battle and negotiate with Russia. Which Zelensky apparently is now open to again.
That aside, my guess is any counter will be multiple fronts with feints to pull Russian troops out and lots of propaganda, the West will send special forces to try to take land bridge and water front, they are already there, tonnes of British and Polish troops, US mercenaries so called, those fuckers are not going into Bakhmut. They are going to try to do something big.
–