Yes. I think they will. But not because Russia is running out of shells and rockets. Nope. I think China wants a chance to field test some of its weaponry and drones against a foe that shoots back in order to see how they perform in a combat environment. Firing artillery or surface-to-air missiles on a closed range does not compare with lighting them up on a bona fide battlefield.
The warnings to China to not help Russia is not new. One year ago the Biden team put out the word that:
China will face consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions in its invasion of Ukraine, the US says.
Unnamed US officials told multiple news outlets that China had signalled willingness to provide military assistance to Russia.
The Chinese foreign ministry accused the US of spreading disinformation. Russia denied asking Beijing for military help.
The exchanges came before top US and Chinese officials met in Rome.
Media outlets, citing Washington officials, say that Russia has in recent days asked China specifically for military equipment, including drones.
Well, the Chinese ignored those unnamed officials and stepped up its cooperation and coordination with Russia.
Could this be the real reason behind Joe Biden’s order to shoot down an errant Chinese balloon (spy or weather) last month? Biden’s revenge for Beijing’s decision to ignore the West’s sanctions on Russia? Those damn Chinese. They do not know the meaning of kowtow (for the sarcastically impaired, this is a joke).
As Yogi Berra said, “it’s deja vu all over again.” A week shy of the anniversary of the first warnings to China over helping Russia, the Biden team exited their clown car and reiterated their past empty threats:
The United States warned China of serious consequences were it to provide arms to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Kyiv’s top general visited the frontline town of Bakhmut where Ukrainian defenders were holding out against constant attacks.
Washington and its NATO allies are scrambling to dissuade China from providing military aid for Moscow’s war, making public comments on their belief that Beijing is considering providing lethal equipment possibly including drones.
Western fears of China helping to arm Russia come as Moscow’s forces struggle to make gains around key objectives in eastern Ukraine, and as Kyiv prepares a counter-offensive with advanced Western weapons including battle tanks.
Xi Jinping and his advisors must be wondering if Biden, Sullivan and Blinken are partaking of Hunter’s illegal stash of hallucinogens. The Chinese have watched the United States and Europe flood Ukraine with money, artillery, artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, Bradley fighting vehicles and tanks and, in typical Chinese restraint, have not chided the NATO countries, at least in public, for this lethal support. Yet the United States, with the European poodles trotting obediently behind, has the Fàngsì (that is Chutzpah in Chinese) to warn Beijing to not do what it is doing. There has to be some serious head scratching going on among Xi’s advisors. What the hell is America trying to do?
Pissing off China seems to be Biden’s play. Along with ordering China to not send military help to Russia, the Biden team leaked intel blaming China for Covid and backed Congressional legislation to ban Tik Tok. I think this has eliminated any doubt among Chinese leaders that the United States is intent on humiliating China rather than find a constructive diplomatic solution.
Back to Russia for a moment. Russia does not need Chinese weapons or aircraft, including drones. However, I think Vladimir Putin is quite willing to give the Chinese military a chance to test their weapons on the battlefield. Chinese military planners are taking U.S. threats about going to war with China and want to be sure their weapons function as intended.
I think the Chinese response to Secretary of State Blinken went something like this, 我們不是你的婊子 (Wǒmen bùshì nǐ de biǎo zi). Look it up.
Inserting Chinese remarks in Chinese ads even more interest and engagement to your posting, Johnson.
Otherwise, a relevant and accurate comment on current events. It is a shame that no-one in Washington will consider such good advise, at least until 2024.
(Perhaps useful to someone here – DeepL Translator is quite precise as a translation tool, and free)
Larry love your work and agree we are handling this like retarded school children but do you think China has no global ambitions are would be a benevolent ruler?
One should not hope for benevolent rulers. This is old US and Western imperial thinking. One should instead work towards a multipolar world governed by international law, where the weak are protected by the strong.
As an aside, in its five thousand year history how many independent countries has China colonized, invaded, or regime changed? Very few of any, not counting border clashes.
How many countries has the US invaded or regime changed in the past 50 years? Too many to count. Check the report below if you haven’t already seen it.
https://scheerpost.com/2023/02/23/china-report-excoriates-us-hegemony-war-crimes-cia-coups-400-foreign-interventions/
Multipolar is probably the right way to go as generally speaking it provides some checks and balances. But governed by international law? Screw international law. It smacks of the globalists and runs counter to a multipolar world where soveriegn nations will settle their own issues internally.
Multipolar is the only way to go. A global, unipolar world will lead eventually to one race, one government, one set of rules, one religion ( if any ) and no choice by the population.
Imagine the wars it will take to wipe out each culture, each religion and the effort needed to reduce one race in order to let another race be predominate. One world government, a unipolar world means the eventual, and planned lose of diversity.
China’s history shows benevolence and non-aggression. They built the Great Wall of China (over 13,100 miles long over mountain tops) to keep out the constantly invading Mongolian barbarians. The West would have just crushed the invaders permanently with a massive military and taken their lands. That said, China historically and at it’s core is an “economic/trading” power. China created the “Silk Road” trading route from the 2 BCE to the mid 15th Century (1700+ years). Anyway, the wise thing to do is to always keep your defences up and remain self sufficient in the core areas.
Machiavelli didn’t write The Prince because Italian rulers were too benevolent and non-aggressive to understand politics, and Sun Tzu didn’t write his Art of War because Chinese rulers were too benevolent and non-aggressive to understand war. China’s military history–or what has survived Mao’s deliberate destruction of traditional Chinese culture after the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution–is magnificent, bloody, and brutal. During the period you mention China contained many peoples and kingdoms until the Mongols unified China by conquest in the 13th Century. They expended most of their considerable military energies against each other. The Mongols (Yuan Dynasty) were the definition of warlike, the Manchus (Qin Dynasty) noted for their brutality in conquest; the native Ming Dynasty, between the Yuan and Qin, was more inward looking but is still reviled for its decadence.
“China’s history shows benevolence and non-aggression” is simply untrue Party propaganda, ironic both because China’s military history is a rich tapestry and because Mao did his utmost to erase Chinese history and culture–in accordance with proper communist principles.
My thinking exactly. This woolly headed presumption that the Chinese elites are different from the ruthless self serving elites elites of other large countrys is dangerous.
Deng Xioping threatened that China could take over Hong Kong in a day if the British didn’t cooperate in giving back Hong Kong.
Mao himself was an autocratic menace who admired Stalin.
Deng Xioping was the man who dragged China kicking and screaming into the 20th century and is made China the power it is today. He is now being written out of history to further Xi’s ambitions for his place in history.
I would not be as cynical about the Chinese “position paper” if they hadn’t annexed Tibet, a country that once was an empire in its own right. Its culture is not Chinese it is closer to Burmese, it has its own languages; not Chinese and its religion is Tibetan Buddhism that originated from India.
So China in annexing Tibet trampled over everything that Tibetans hold dear, their language, religion and culture. They forced their penultimate leader, the Dali Lama to flee. The Dali Lama didn’t become the leader because of inheritance as is usually the case in China, he was chosen at four years old. He born on 6 July 1935 on a straw mat in a cowshed to a poor farmer’s family in a remote part of Tibet.
The Dali Lama was trying to modernise Tibet, but was getting a lot of resistance from the Tibetan monks many of whom were vicious thugs, but he wanted to preserve the religion and culture.
The Chinese didn’t invade Tibet as Putin invaded Ukraine to protect people being persecuted by Nazis, they did it in there own interest to consolidate their frontiers and strengthen their security. Their elites are as ruthless and self serving as any of the elites in the US and like the US elites I would not trust them as far as I could kick them.
So if people want to take all of their motherhood statements and statements of good intentions at face value remember Tibet. And you can’t blame the annexation of Tibet on the US Neo-Cons and a color revolution.
Please go and read Larry Romanoff on the bluemoonofshanghai website. he goes into such details about 20th century china, it amazes and he goes into the full details of the chinese military invasion of Tibet, its reasons and the who and the why and the when. It will open your eyes, as it appears that you are repeating the point of view from the west about the chinese invasion of Tibet. That being said, China is made up of humans and human rulers, will always do stupid things like war and be imperialist in some point of thier lives. Is the human way.
What do the Russians need from the Chinese? Semiconductors. AI. And their new ISR systems, quantum radar and ghost imaging.
Permit me to add antimatter guns, teleporters and time machines.
here we go again….ALL LOOK here how someone who claim to be inteligent and informed stil belive that Russia is a Gas Station mascarade in to a country.. HOW ignorant can you be that after 1 year of war with plenty of evidence of US military Aid destroyed all over in Ukraine this person stil belive in US superiority…. but he fail to mention that Russia is provide China with early warning systems, he fail to understand that Russia have her own semiconductors industry, ISR and all the BS he wrote here about…
I thought Russia manufactured all the necessary components for all their high tech military and space machines.
I think Russia is self sufficient just like they claim.
They don’t actually need but why reject China’s willingness to join up.
No, I don’t think China has had global ambitions. You are confusing the Chinese mindset and cultural values with those of the West. This is a common mistake. In its thousands of years of history, the Chinese have never had global ambitions. No, the Mongols weren’t “China”. In fact, when the Mongols conquered China, they fairly quickly gave their global ambitions, the Golden Horde notwithstanding.
Why do I say this? I don’t have space here to explain.
But I have a full article which explains the complex interaction of history and geography which have shaped Western “Win-Lose” Thinking and Chinese “Win-Win.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/china-versu-america
One should add that the Russians have no interest in a global empire either.
The whole POINT of “multipolar” is respect for other cultures.
I think it is more accurate to say that the present leadership of Russia has no interest in a global empire. Neither did the American leadership until around the dawn of the 20th Century.
In many ways Russia is a “young” country like the US was in 1776 bent on establishing itself as an equal among the European states but getting there by peaceful economic production and trade and non interference in other countries politics and internal affairs. This seems to be Vladimir Putin’s philosophy. Will future leaders of Russia continue with this policy of viewing other countries as sovereign and trading peacefully with them?
Nation states are inherently power hungry. A small group rule the rest of us by force. They live off our productive wealth by force which they obscure with the law. So the temptation to rule the people of other countries is built in.
We certainly don’t have benevolent rulers now! Why Americans put up with it is still a mystery to me.
But China doesn’t want to “rule” the US but they’d be happy with the US finally following objective, fair and mutually agreed upon “rules”.
The cabal residing in that festering carbuncle we call Washington DC impose whatever arbitrary rules they like and impose any others and everyone else and the rest of the world has had quite enough of that.
The whole point of China’s (and Russia’s, and India’s, and Iran’s, etc etc) public support for multi-polarity is that no one country should be ruling the world.
China is big and will have influence; the US is also big and will always have influence too.
The problem is that the US thinks it is 1950 and is the biggest and only game in town. There is zero evidence that China or anyone else thinks this way.
Your question is thus irrelevant given that there is no evidence of China wanting to be the ruler of the globe like the US wants to.
If China does follow America’s orders, we’ll sanction them. Lol.
China could create chaos in the US just by cutting off pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals. Picture Cleavon Little in Blazing Saddles.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_jb86ara4V_0/TRgWZXs1t1I/AAAAAAAAAeQ/lU9uLaQvWjE/s1600/blazing.jpg
我們不是你的婊子 – good one Larry.
If Congress bans TikTok, an army of angry teenage American girls will storm the Capitol, and they’ll do a lot more damage than that guy in the Viking hat who sat on Pelosi’s throne.
Dear Larry,
Seems if the West actually wanted China to NOT send weapons they would NOT make public statements, but rather try private inducements. I conclude they are trying to send a message to China in case, the balloon message (we will spend tens of millions of dollars to destroy a (now useless) $10,000 balloon because we can print trillions of dollars ) was not received.
It all would be funny if it wasnt serious and sad and bloody worrisome for possibly ending all life on earth.
“The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”
-THe Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon
We ain’t your bitch. lol.
他媽的, eh?
Sayeth Chinese ex-pat in Vancouver.
America has not done diplomacy since the end of the cold war. Back when there was a perceived “real” threat (Soviet Union, China etc.) – we used to try and do diplomacy (among other things like making our own stuff). Now all America does is threaten with sanctions or just threaten and bully. This is why you are seeing unhinged statements/threats/desperate acts of terr*rism (Nord stream) and posturing of readiness to sanction and go to war, even with adversaries that could clearly eat our lunch. Well, the adversaries this time are not getting scared off and are in fact eating our lunch.
Everything is a PR opportunity here, that’s all it has become. Think Blinken approaching Lavrov at G20 in India – instead of having a real conversation like, you know, two diplomats – we get more threats and more posturing. I mean why even approach another diplomat if all you will do is threaten? I’ll tell ya why – ’cause 15 minutes later Blinken gets to be lauded and cheered on CNN as approaching Lavrov to “show resolve” (whatever that means). It is all bling bling and no bang bang me thinks, we started believing our own CNN stories (isn’t CNN a CIA construct anyway?). Same with our lost Joe – why go to Kiev knowing that you will have to ask the Russians permission to fly into the war zone? Well, to put on a TV show to the dumb and brainwashed who don’t understand that you need permission to fly in. Why did Yellen show up in Kiev with a 1+ billion check? More posturing. Let’s face it – we are caught in a bad movie with 3rd rate actors and unfortunately, these actors are addicted to the camera.
Anyway, they are threatening China with sanctions. Good. I say sanction the Chinese and let’s see what happens when they respond by deciding not to sell us ANYTHING anymore. You know, they just cut us off in response. Me thinks three months into the sanctions war, when Walmart and Amazon are filing for bankruptcy and the poor are lining up in front of the ruins of local Walmart stores, in their Chinese made pajamas with their AR-15s demanding their cheap Sour Patches that provide them with sustenance, well, it will be a different world.
I don’t know if Ayn Rand had a crystal ball but boy, we sure are living Part 1 of the Atlas Shrugged story already.
politics is hollywood for ugly people…
you can add mainstream news to that.
Great points and it is very clear when the US announces its intentions to destroy both China and Russia. I am getting the feeling those outside of the G7 really care what they think anymore. Very dangerous game the US is playing and my gut tells me if will not turn out well for anyone but even worse for the US citizens. Thank you again for all your hard work to keeps us thinking.
I second that.
I find the angle of China using the Ukraine to test its weapon systems intelligent and intriguing.
The US is a very real and serious threat to China. China needs to prepare to defend itself as best it can. The US Sher Khan and its Anglo-European Tabaqui’s are bully’s at heart. They ‘shock-n-awe’ only the weak and vulnerable.
Haha.. An interesting and very entertaining read, Mr Larry. I’ll like to support you in ways that I can. If ever you need Chinese translation, do message me. I’ve lived in Asia for close to 5 decades now, I’ve done translation work even for doctorate thesis, other than commercial work. I’ll do these for you for free.
Thanks so much. i hope you continue to share your knowledge of what is going on in Asia. I’m a novice.
Spot on. The Chinese are using the Ukraine fight to test their weapons.
These delusional Biden clowns don’t seem to have realised that America isn’t playing with the strongest hand anymore. China and Russia (among other nations) openly ignore them.
You would think that this simple fact would immediately result in common sense negotiations with the US carving out as much as they can, from a losing hand. But no.
It’s beyond the likes of Biden, Obama, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland etc – none of them very impressive by the way (quite dumb actually) – to even consider that they are wrong, in any way. They regard themselves as intellectually and morally superior beings, historically important, who can act with impunity.
They’re nuts, and will cause a lot more damage to the US the longer they remain in power.
Since September seeing reading and hearing all the military equipment being railed out of bases and shipped to Europe, I hope it’s for only maneuvers with our NATO allies Poland and Romania. But I fear NSC DOD Pentagon Generals and civilians will delusionaly think that moving US forces into Ukraine will frighten Russian to “peace table”!
It is none of the sionist cabals fucking business! China can give whatever to whoever it wants. There ain’t nothing you can do about that except whine. So go ahead cabal trio and whine Bliny, Sulli and Nully.
“What the hell is America trying to do?”
They’re trying to split the China-Russia axis that threatens American supremacy. The circle-jerking echo-chamber in which they live and operate resounds of America’s decades long pre-eminence. They’ve spent their adulthood and careers marinated in it, and they’ll die embalmed in it. They’re no more aware of it than a fish knows it’s wet, and they can imagine a world where America is less than pre-eminent no more than a fish can imagine a dry life.
All that results in their conviction that they have the power to intimidate China – that the Chinese fear war even more than they fear losing Western business. Unfortunately for them, Russia & China have gamed this out. Past masters of the calculus of power, they’ve done their sums and waited patiently for the cracks in the American led West’s power to widen to the point where the entire structure is in jeopardy.
Russia’s SMO has exposed and widened the cracks further. Washington’s echo chamber never saw any need for doing their sums, and so they didn’t. The net result is that they’re consistently finding themselves either bewildered by the effects of their actions, or in denial of them.
Narratives that define a nation can live long after they’ve lost their connection to the realities that originally gave rise to them. Their death knells are heard first on the margins, like here on sonar21 but it can take a long time to filter through to a hermetically isolated centre absent a catastrophic, narrative ending event.
China & Russia, I believe are trying to avoid facilitating such an event. The repercussions are necessarily unknowable, and even if relatively benign (EG: the USSR’s collapse) will harm a great many people across the world. A harm which they would not want to be seen as responsible for going forward.
excellent insights
Sorry but I don’t think hallucinogens even work on skinwalkers like Blinken or Sullivan. There’s no ‘there’ there
China has been collaborating with Russia for a long time and the way in which Russia managed to circumvent the sanctions as you might expect was not prepared on the 24th of February at night. The word help doesn’t even apply! China and India are today the main support of the Russian economy including in the bypass of Swift! And China is also collaborating with a lot of machinery for the Russian MIC as the US is tired of knowing! The US panic has to do with supplies of drones that are impossible to hide on the battlefield. Hence all the fuss from the US to prevent this supply. Yes, Russia has thousands of drones but there are many types of drones. For surveillance, to destroy armor, etc, etc. At the beginning of the conflict, in an interview with Scott Ritter from Solovyov, the issue of the impact of drones in this conflict was addressed and Russia was unable to foresee some needs that it has today and Iran’s capacity is still very small. As you may have already noticed, Russia has an almost immobilized air force because Ukraine still has many air defenses. New air defenses! And it only has these defenses because it receives all the information in real time from US intelligence and it almost doesn’t need to turn on the radars. And without the radars turned on it is not possible to detect the air defense. Yes Russia needs a lot of drones. Incidentally, with the swarms of drones that Russia needs, the war was most likely over. Otherwise how do you explain that Russia approached a shitty village like Ugledar in the open field with infantry without air force cover? And how does Ukraine continue to receive Western weapons after 1 year? Russia has very limited air force, with many planes only operating in Russian territory and needs Chinese drones! And everything indicates that he will receive them once again due to Washington’s lack of political ability! Because China is not just worried about the US in the international community. China wants to proceed with the Belt and Road and right now it is also at war with the US! Hybrid for now!
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html
I did a modest amount of business in the PRC over a number of years.
They are extremely touchy regarding arrogant round-eyes.
Who else would sh*t a brick if it turns out the weapons China sends to Russia are engineered with technology pillaged out of America by Israel and in turn provided to China by Israel?
If you don’t think this is a possibility, what is Technion doing in China?
https://www.gtiit.edu.cn/en/
The Chinese seam to have enough of the BS
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/21368
Interesting months ahead
China, like Russia, needs to cut the cord entirely with this insanely belligerent Biden regime. Its government has already said “F*ck off!” in response to this latest US strong-arm attempt. Now it’s time to just hang up the phone and continue cashing in ALL its US-dollar investment “chips”.
Honestly, this government of ours now unmistakably resembles the Third Reich in almost every way. Besides openly supporting Ukraine’s Nazis, it itself has thoroughly embraced many of the tactics of Nazi Germany.
It CAN happen here. It HAS happened here!
I do hope the Chinese supply weapons without any delay. Iran should also deliver its latest versions of long range drones for actual combat testing so that Russian experts could fine tune their effectiveness and if there’s any issue help the Iranians to fix it. New Iranian long range drones of up to 2000km would do very well against NATO heavy weapons of the Western-backed Neonazi hooligans.
Does the US government ever think what are we going to do if China will sanction the US? All our cups, plates, electronics, clothes, etc. are made in China. Remember how there were no even masks when Covid started, I got my first pack from China, with a very kind note, btw. This administration is criminal, insane and delusional. Or maybe because our debt to China is so huge, the brainiacs decided it’s cheaper to announce the war and cancel this debt than to pay it off? Didn’t the French king pull the same stint on the Templars whom he owed so much that it was cheaper to burn them? It didn’t finish well for this king…
“Or maybe because our debt to China is so huge, the wise guys decided it was cheaper to declare war and cancel this debt than to pay it off?”
Of course, that’s right. But why are you presenting the true essence of the foreign policy of the United States and its satellites in an interrogative form?
Not only the Russian government understood, but ordinary citizens have long begun to suspect that the United States and the West are engaged in robberies around the world, gobble up three throats and accumulate unsustainable debts in the belief that the debt will never have to be repaid, that there will be enough military forces to destroy the borrower and capture his property. The Chinese also understand this very well.
All the hysteria around Ukraine is explained only by the fact that something did not go as planned, that the strategy of “raking up the heat with other than one’s own hands”, which brought the desired results throughout the 20th century, began to falter in the 21st century.
And who would have thought that the West would stumble in Ukraine!
And all because Ukraine exists in the paradigm of double betrayal.
Ukraine will soon show itself as a gravedigger of its sovereign.
Only pathetically compliant and cowardly sheeple wore face nappies/diapers.
And Covid? Stop being a covidiot and say what it was; a fake pandemic, a scamdemic/plandemic.
Personally, I would disagree with Larry’s view that China may want to test their equipment. While it sounds reasonable, I think that a bigger game is being played.
China and Russia hopes to achieve multipolar, but if China helps Russia or supply any arms, this would not be beneficial. Other countries would see China/Russia as a bloc and a threat. But in reality, China and Russia do not want to form a single group, but wants to be separate entities in that multi polar world.
I still personally believe that they are playing like the bad cop, good cop. Russia looks bad, so China looks good. As the war drags, people prefer China over US or Europe. And China shows goodwill to Russia to bring back impression when this is over. So China would play more of a mediator role.
On the other hand, recently I saw some Taiwan talkshows, one of the points made was that, China does not initiate any talks with US. It is usually Blinken who would start announcing his planned flights or schedules with China who doesnt acknowledge that. China does not really seem interested for discussion with US (who can’t be trusted anyway?). So they would pay US news and information no real heed. But US cannot accept that. So they try to be rascals to attract the attention of China, and acting like a spoilt brat hopes that people will listen to him.
This is also US’s wishful thinking to smear China and Russia. They seem to have realized that time is not on their side, as NATO and Russia clash, China seems to be emerging as winning. At the same time, US cannot let the war end with Russia winning as per the current situation. So they start making lies against China to create fear so their citizens and other countries will not follow with China while they figure a way to “win” the Ukraine war, hopefully they do not have any bright ideas that has includes Nuclear as a way to win…
“So they start making lies against China to create fear so their citizens and other countries will not follow with China….”.
As always a propaganda campaign for foolish people.
Not content to use your decades of professional experience and insider knowledge to seek an alternate (that is, truthful) view of events, now you insist on mocking the Chinese! What are ya, some kinda rayciss?
“They’re our friend/biggest trading partner.” SLAP! “I said I want the truth!”
“They’re our enemy/biggest competitor.” SLAP! “I said I want the truth!”
“They’re both our biggest trading partner and our biggest competitor.”
[With apologies to Faye Dunaway & Jack Nicholson.]
I had the impression that this was strategy to show the US Neoconservative faction that even considering that they can erode Russia is a fools errand vertical series of mountain ranges to cross , with no end in sight.
The neocons have made it clear China are next, after the “success” in Russia.
Fortunately, they have not only tipped off the Chinese, but provided an opportunity for them to test their latest weaponry.
Good article, and likely prophetic.
The only question for me is: What kind of problems would China have if China stopped selling products to the USA? Would they have millions of unemployed people? Would China lack of some products they only get from the USA?
We have to see both sides.
If you look at the situation in total, it is only the West that made big activities by delivering weapons to a war party. China did not make big activities yet. Why?
Because they still believe in a settlement? Because they think time has not yet come? Because they are afraid of a nuclear war? I have no idea. But I fear that China expects the Westerners to be reasonable, what they are definitely not. But not being reasonable does not mean that you will loose.
Mainly because Russia are winning.
If Russia were losing, China would have to step in because a broken up Russia would have NATO bases all along China’s border.
I believe you view at a very broad sense. However, I think you need to dive a bit more into details. Do note that these are my personal opinions:
1) What kind of problems would China have if China stopped selling products to the USA?
As a country, this would reduce exports. As a company, if you suddenly lose customers due to govt regulations, it can be very painful economically. And if China says to cut all trades, it really means to cut all trades. Normally sanctions are carried out in certain fields. Even so, China tend to compensate those affected such as buying their products etc, which seems a bit different from how US treats their companies.
2) Would they have millions of unemployed people?
Yes, this is definitely possible. Certain companies that rely on trade with others may crumble. Other countries may also be wary of trading with China as this becomes a threat, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy of the US, that China may use such to blackmail countries. So even other countries may reduce their purchases from China, and thus may lead to even more unemployed.
3) Would China lack of some products they only get from the USA?
No, not really, I think there are alternate sources. However, it seems China do not want to be uncivilized. I believe recently I seen this phrase which China does not want to do: “A dog bit you, bite it back”. And more commonly, “An eye for an eye makes the world go blind”.
4) China did not make big activities yet. Why?
I think China does not want to look much into Ukraine War. This is Russia’s business. Despite how grand the West has made it look. This has nothing to do with China or Global South. If China participates in it, it is just making things worse. Eventually, China wants to help mediate and end the war, which the West will never want to accept (because the PR doesnt look good if China did what they failed to. They must sabotage any talks and then let the West mediate instead).
5) Because they still believe in a settlement? Because they think time has not yet come? Because they are afraid of a nuclear war?
If the West come to their senses, China would welcome it. If they don’t, they will let US bark (do note that Europe is still keen to work with China). China does not see Ukraine war as a big thing. If anything, they rather believe Taiwan is more important. And yes, China is afraid of a nuclear war, which is why it started considering stepping in for negotiations when it seems the nuclear option is getting closer.
While China is big and getting stronger, it does not think that it can survive as an individual isolated entity. As such, it is portraying itself as a country with open arms that can accept other countries and values. However, it wants to be careful not to tell others how to act. As such, its reactions to US are “keep your hands to yourself!” rather than being aggressive to others. Also, a gentle reminder that it is much more difficult than anyone can imagine to manage a big country. US looks prominent due to its big voice, but actually its internal politics is failing badly. China is trying to focus on its internal issues. Yes, I believe that a lot of negative comments about China may have reasons for them. However, China is trying to work on them. It would definitely help if people stop picking at China while it is trying to solve the problems.
I really like something former President Jimmy Carter mentioned:
“Carter said the United States is “the most warlike nation in the history of the world” due to a desire to impose American values on other countries, and he suggested that China is investing its resources into projects such as high-speed railroads instead of defense spending.”
I think its reasonable for China to concentrate more on road building than get too involved in wars. There may be a time when they will be forced into war, but not in Ukraine I believe. It may be the upcoming taiwan which I hope will not happen.
I understand all this and can agree. But when, as a lot of people see it, the origin of all tensions today is the US government, then there are just two possible solutions for China: Live with the constant threat or try to get rid of the US government. By the way, the same what the US government wants to do to the Chinese government.
At the moment, it looks like standing the threat.
I think that is it …”Live with the constant threat or try to get rid of the US government”. The world at large is finished with the U.S. and the West, done, over it, kaput. It is now or never for the rest of the world to reign in the U.S., “kick em in the balls” and then walk away. At some point, the countries that are presently fearful of the U.S. will walk away. It starts with the weakening of the dollar…that is the key. Once the dollar is in the crapper, and it is on its way, the U.S. will have no leverage over the world.
Never, in my 46 years, living in America, did I imagine seeing the foreign policy of a once most powerful nation on earth, be reduced by a fake US administration, to sending its Secretary of State, secretly tap on Mr. Sergey Lavrov’s shoulder and say something like: ” Master Lavrov… err…, can I have a word with you?
When I woke up on Nov. 5th, 2020 and saw the results of what a mummified carcass, pretending to be our president had said earlier, in front of national TV, that ” we have put together one of the greatest, most unified voter fraud teams ever assembled in US history”, I never imagined that it would, a mere two years, turn into an irreversible catastrophe for the future of our once great nation. RIP USA!
Chinese are already on the ground managing Wagner back office for drones
Which is just what justifies the US hysteria! The US continues to think that it defines the rules of the game and the wars it provokes! Everyone can supply Ukraine with weapons, but no one can supply Russia with a screw because unilateral sanctions do not allow it. Well, countries like China and India have already clearly said that they do not agree with unilateral sanctions, but preaching is not enough, in order to affirm a multipolar NWO it is necessary to take the next step. How to supply Russia with something that is impossible to deny like drones because soon debris will appear on the battlefield on Ukraine’s side! And the hybrid war that the US has waged against China is an excellent justification for supplying drones! Another topic is the story that Russia is completely self-sustaining and most likely is the most independent nation in the world but the 21st century is not the Middle Ages. It is not enough to produce food, clothing and energy and no country in the world produces everything! Not even the biggest economies in the world as we all know! And it’s one thing to trample on the colony of Japan, which still says arigato and could also be one of the greatest technological powers in the world today. Another thing is China!
my guess is, the belorussian visit to Beijing wasn`t accidentally HUGE (to quote some obscure person of the past)…
Minsk will most likely serve as a hub in case thing go south- which i don`t expect- but some drones wouldn`t hurt…
from germany
FYI: Some very sad tidings:
Living on a Deadline in the Nuclear Age. Some Personal News From Daniel Ellsberg
Yan Gagin (adviser to the head of the DPR) has addressed the question why Ukraine keeps on sending weapons & manpower into Artemovsk/Bakhmut https://www.vesti.ru/article/3231528
“Explaining the fact why the Kiev regime clings so stubbornly to Artemovsk, Gagin said that “through this” black hole “it is very convenient and great to write off all the weapons that they receive from their masters in order to redistribute these weapons among other countries – terrorists and other terrorist cells.” “Through this” black hole “the money they receive for this war is also easily written off,” said Denis Pushilin’s adviser.”
The whole article:
“The ring of encirclement is practically closing,” he said on the air of the 60 Minutes program on the Rossiya 1 TV channel.
According to adviser Denis Pushilin, hundreds of enemy manpower are killed every day in Artemovsk. “If we multiply this statistics by a three-month standing, the figure is simply monstrous, and therefore the question arises precisely about the disposal of the Ukrainian population,” he said.
Commenting on reports of the enemy’s intention to withdraw some military units from Artemovsk, Gagin expressed the opinion that, most likely, this would affect the regular troops, and not the very mobilized ones who would probably be thrown there in order to somewhat slow down the advance of Russian forces.
Explaining the fact why the Kiev regime clings so stubbornly to Artemovsk, Gagin said that “through this” black hole “it is very convenient and great to write off all the weapons that they receive from their masters in order to redistribute these weapons among other countries – terrorists and other terrorist cells.” “Through this” black hole “the money they receive for this war is also easily written off,” said Denis Pushilin’s adviser.
As for yesterday’s terrorist attack in the Bryansk region, where Ukrainian militants penetrated, then, according to Gagin, “these actions are very similar to the actions of the units of the so-called people’s armies, which were provoked by the United States around the world throughout recent recent history.” “I am sure that the hosts from NATO could not have been unaware of this action, that it was being prepared, about who it was directed against. This is a classic terrorist act,” summed up the adviser to the acting head of the DPR.
Sorry friend, but international laws are the unique solution for a peaceful world. Obviously we are not talking about the current UN with its 5 countries in the UNSC that can almost everything. More countries need to have the right to improve their voices in the diplomatic scenario. Certain authoritarian rights given to developed countries must be reviewed and/or extinct. An agenda of economic development, environment protection and peace needs to be created and approved for all countries to give to them the chance be better.
Lavrov knocked it out of the park in this one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rALJIjWrZeQ … lol
Good video. Thanks
i think it’s an interesting point of view. to complete that, the chinese could send also some manpower to operate the devices and acquire experience to train the rest of the chinese military. an ue ministry got a diplomatic solution for that: a soldier could become a civilian and be sent in war as a civilian, for western nato soldiers that worked. who knows if china got insignt of this method and wants to replicate it
Re Washington banning Tik Tok.
Didn’t the Chinese government recently pass a law that young people in China can only use Tik Tok for 40 minutes a day, max? Yes.
Does that mean that Washington is now seriously concerned about American youth becoming addicted to social media? Not.
I think there is another advantage to the Chinese if they defy Washington’s threats and send arms to Russia now. Paradoxically I think it is the resulting sanctions themselves. As the Duran people have repeatedly observed China is already on the US “sanctions escalator”. Any sanctions that come now were already inevitable. The sooner they start the sooner they Chinese can adapt to them with the bonus that the economic blowback will sow division in the anti-China coalition the US is trying to build. We have already seen that the consequences of sanctions on Russia are straining relations within the NATO alliance. I think it is a good long term strategic move for China in preparation for what now appears to be an inevitable war.
Very good Big Serge piece here for those interested:
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers
I think there is another advantage to the Chinese if they defy Washington’s threats and send arms to Russia now. Paradoxically I think it is the resulting sanctions themselves. As the Duran people have repeatedly observed China is already on the US “sanctions escalator”. Any sanctions that come now were already inevitable. The sooner they start the sooner the Chinese can adapt to them with the bonus that the economic blowback will sow division in the anti-China coalition the US is trying to build. We have already seen that the consequences of sanctions on Russia are straining relations within the NATO alliance. I think it is a good long term strategic move for China in preparation for what now appears to be an inevitable war.
Excellent observations Larry. Who, in Russia or China ever mentioned the Chinese were sending weapons? Same with the projection of Russia is running out of weapons or, Russia has lost the war. It is all nothing more than the typical U.S. / Western attempt at projection.
I do not know if the Chinese will send over shells or drones or whatever they choose to Russia, if so, it will be partially out of spite against the West and partially out of a desire to see how these weapons perform.
The Chinese are a patient government, and people, they play the long game and know full well the idiots that run the U.S. and Western governments do not have the industrial capacity to wage war. If the U.S. continues to huff and puff, the U.S. may find the Chinese lobing munitions on the west coast of the U.S. and the Russians doing so on the East coast of the U.S.
We will lose, along with Ukraine.
Excellent point Larry. Yes. Ukraine is now Hemingway’s Spain. Complete with foreign volunteers and weapons testing from everywhere. Getting ready for the main event.
I also think the Chinese will peddle some dated ordnance out. From the early days of China and Russia cooperation when they used the exact same systems. I imagine there are acres of Russian compatible artillery shells the Chinese don’t even use anymore.
And unlike Ukraine? Taiwan ain’t going to be a artillery war. That will be missiles galore.
Larry,
Have you seen this? PRC Foreign Ministry statement re: US hegemony. It’s a seminal document I believe and getting zero coverage.
Thoughts?
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202302/t20230220_11027664.html
我們不是你的婊子 == > We are not your bitches.
In the world we live in, this quite polite language, Larry! It can even be abbreviated in virtual code as: WANYB.