This remark may sound as an exaggeration but I find it astute. Russia is more personalist than the (post-Stalin) USSR. It is also in many respects more centralised. For example, a separate Siloviki hierarchy unanswerable to the regional authorities is the post-Soviet innovation
In Russia all the people with guns/badges are answerable only to Moscow. Police, Investigation Committee, Prosecutors, FSB and the National Guard of course. All the law enforcement/warrior cops are 100% centralised, governors have no authority over them
Not the case in the USSR
In the (post-Stalin) USSR nomenklatura hold a tight grip over the ppl with guns and often did it on the regional level. Not only were the regular cops answerable to the regional/republican Party committee, but even the military commanders could be integrated into the latter
In other words, in the USSR the civilian hierarchy (nomenklatura) was not separated from the ppl with guns. Cops, prosecutors, etc. were answerable to the *local* Party committee, who basically owned the cops. And even with the military there could be a degree of integration
In modern Russia however, the government made sure that the regional authorities have 0 ppl with guns under their command. Like absolutely zero. In the last year, even the last gubernatorial bodyguard services were disbanded. Now every governor is guarded by the National Guard
The full separation of the people-with-guns hierarchy from the civilian hierarchy with the full centralisation of command over the former is not a Soviet, but a Russian innovation. Non-ideological, low trust and personalist regime won’t allow anyone to have a single gunman under
When you think of nomenklatura, think of Krang and of a fractal kind of Krang. In every city, region, republic, etc. there sat a Krang who ran everything including the gunmen. Yes, dictatorial rule. But also collective, institutionalised and relatively decentralised
Now the funny thing about modern Russia is that there is no nomenklatura anymore. The Krang is dead. Yes, the state security took over but it did not take over in a same way. Modern Russia is extremely personalist -> fragile. It just cannot afford a shadow of decentralisation
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The biggest Western delusion about the regimes like Russian may be that they can be successfully challenged by some sort of “opposition”.
Reality check:
The King is most likely to be successfully challenged by the people who grew rich and powerful on the royal service (not 🧵)
That’s easy to explain. You see, to do anything in the real world, you need resources (financial, administrative, guns), etc. Ideally, to endeavour anything big you should already command a small empire of your own. A large business for example can qualify as a small empire
People with no resources present little to no danger. People with some resources can present some danger. Now a coalition of people with private empires of their own can present a very significant danger, including to the authoritarian regime
With all due respect to Yashin, I think that framing the situation in terms of "Putin vs Russia" dichotomy would be disingenuous. Putin is not a foreign conqueror. He is a legitimate heir, appointed by the previous monarch. Putinism is an organic continuation of Yeltsinism
Once you agree that Putin is not an external force, but rather an organic element of the Russian system, you start seeing overfocusing on Putin's personality ("it's him! he's the only one who's guilty!") as disingenuous. As an attempt to save the system intact, basically
"Ruler vs people" argument can be made for Chechnya, where Kadyrov's rule was imposed by the bloody foreign invasion. Kadyrov is largely an external force for most of his subjects, so his reign is based upon the continuous mass terror. Putin however, is *not* an external force
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FYI: When you see Russian elite members "acting mad", be aware they are acting 100% rationally. It's smart to play mad. Mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive, you can:
a) Play the "voice of reason" -> Putin destroys you
b) Play "mad" -> Putin keeps you
c) Keep silence🧵
You won't get why Medvedev is "acting so deranged" without taking into account the consequences of not acting deranged
"Nazi drug addicts"
"Pigs"
"We'll retaliate using weapons of any kind"
This is not a signal to you. It is a signal to Putin:
"I am not a danger. Leave me be"
Same with Lavrov's "Jewish Hitler" remarks. I think it is very smart and well thought behaviour. He is purposefully playing "antisemitic" to maximise the damage to his personal reputation in the West. The worse, the better. Non-terrible standing in the West = liability in Moscow
American discourse is "anthropological". Broadly speaking, you are classified according to how you look (White vs Black)
Russian discourse is "culturalist". Sharing the common cultural memes, having a Russian first name and speaking without accent pretty much makes you Russian
This is the first approximation of course. Both discourses are in practice idiosyncratic. In America very anthropological "White" and "Black" coexist with a 100% culturalist "Hispanic" category. Add to that a geographically defined "Asian" and you get a total idiosyncratic mess
On the other hand, culturalist Russia also has the racialised discourse which can be weaponised whenever deemed necessary for reasons that have nothing to do either with race or with culture. The most obvious example is - political disagreements. They are constantly racialised
Even if an author cites his/her sources, it may be difficult to verify if he/she represented their content correctly, due to:
1. Sources being undigitized 2. Language/palaeography barrier 3. Sources simply being too difficult to understand *correctly*. E.g. much of Rosstat data
For example some Russian official statistics may not be necessarily "wrong". It's just that they are represented in a way that a layman is 100% guaranteed to misinterpret them, unless he/she conducts a special research on what does Rosstat mean exactly by this or that figure
Imagine you are trying to estimate Russian import dependency in light swords. The obvious solution would be to look up Rosstat data on
1. Import/Export 2. Domestic production
of light swords and compare them
It would be totally wrong though and will lead to absurd conclusions