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9h • 8 tweets • 2 min read
It is also convenient to talk about personal guilt, it just won’t get you anywhere. I know many Ukrainians will hate to hear this, but I don’t think this war will end with any sort of moral catharsis at all. Meanwhile much of Ukrainian discourse seems to be catharsis-oriented
Consider the “reparations”. This idea is not completely unrealistic. Ukraine may have a chance to use some of the Russian gov/oligarch assets abroad for post-war reconstruction. Should Russia collapse, Ukrainians may also have a chance to enter Russia and take what they want
But that’s not what is being proposed (for the most part). For the most part ppl seem to imagine reparations as Russia paying trillions bazillions dollars *over a long period* to pay for the harm it inflicted. I think this plan is madness and potentially suicidal madness
Why? First, this plan requires large, centralised and highly functional political structure to work out. Once you invest into the “reparations” idea, you will start accepting the idea of strong and functional Russian empire. There will be no way around it, realistically speaking
Second problem is *over the long time* frame. If you plan to collect bazillions over the long time, it means you never gonna collect them. Because a lot of stuff can and will happen over the long time. There will be plenty of Black Swans that will allow to stop paying anything
Once again, people may hate to hear that, but should the reparation plan with a time frame of let’s say 50 (for example) years be accepted, you must realistically expect that in a few years Russia will reduce payments dramatically. And then stop them at all
Should Russia lose, Ukraine may have a short window of opportunity to do well, everything. The key word - *short*. Once this window of opportunity fades away, there will be not much you can realistically do. You may not be even able to make Russia follow whatever you forced it…
To sign. So whatever commitments you forced Moscow to sign would just turn into dust. And this may happen fast, much faster than one could expect. I’d give 5-10 years max, but most probably it will happen sooner

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
14h
You nailed it, bro. Now guess how many modern machine tools building plants are there in Russia
I very much liked your question because it shows a very widespread fallacy. Take “commonsensical” assumptions and deduce conclusions out of them. Meanwhile, much better of commonsensical wisdom is just propaganda that doesn’t stand the test of reality
Assume that much of what you consider to be “facts” is false, and often completely false
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 18
Wow.

@elonmusk, as a Twitter user I see this as a highly arbitrary decision. You may say: you don't care how I see it. Fair enough. Unfortunately, arbitrary rule affects everyone's personal strategies. If you are subject to it, you can't realistically plan anything long-term
From a user's perspective, planning anything in the long term requires predictable rules. If the rules are unpredictable, long term thinking is just stupid. You either:

- Reduce your planning horizon here
or
- Transfer to more predictable jurisdictions

Some may combine both
I was always sceptical about the prospect of you "destroying Twitter", assuming that you won't destroy it in a technical sense -> most of the community will stay. But now I see a very real possibility of people living *preventively* because of the atmosphere of unpredictability
Read 9 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 16
Georgi Derluguian once told a story. He studied at the Institute of Asian and African Countries in Moscow. For obvious reasons his classmates with "historian-orientalist" degrees are very-well represented in Russian elites. Many years later he met a Very Rich Classmate and asked
- Your palace is *really* nice. But how did you get so rich? Where is all of this money coming from?
- Das Kapital, Volume 1, Chapter 26. Just look up, everything is written down there. Let's remain friends

I find this anecdote very telling
Having studied in Soviet unis, emerging Russian elites were well-aware of Marx's criticism of capitalism. In fact, their understanding of capitalism was shaped by Marx's criticism. They could not think of the capitalism otherwise than in (somewhat reductionist) Marxist terms
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 16
No, that would happen in case of regime change with the fundamental structure of the empire remaining intact. Should Moscow rule everyone under a different rhetorical disguise, then "Russia experts" with deep contacts in Moscow and few anywhere else will be in high demand
That may explain why many in academia are so invested into a regime change with the "liberal opposition" coming to power. Many Western experts have strong connections there and should those fellows take power, these connections would be worth more

Ofc they want it to happen
On the other hand, almost no one in academia has strong contacts in or even the basic understanding of the regions that could become the nuclei of functional states. I am talking about richer regions that now pay the bills of Moscow and thus could pay their own, too
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 14
I think you're both right and wrong. You're right in a sense that all influential groups are:

1) identified by regime
2) forced into submission & cooperation

But that's totally normal. And many of them can and should become nuclei of new political order(s)

There's no one else
Your observation is right, you're just making wrong implications out of it. If you study history of most anti-colonial movements, both successful (USA) and failures, you'll see that local notables well-integrated into a previous regime were very prominent in almost all of them
I would even say that popular imagination tends to exaggerate the "people's rebellion" factor and simultaneously underrate "notables changing colours" factor when studying most political changes, either anti-colonial and not
Read 7 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 11
Daily reminder that as a rule Western Academia has great contempt towards public imagination of non-Western countries. They misrepresent their internal debates ignoring whatever doesn’t fit to their preconceptions

Galkovsky is wildly more impactful than Dugin for example
Galkovsky has been the most influential Russian nationalist thinker of the recent decades and Sputnik and Pogrom - the most influential media. They largely shaped the worldview of young Russian nationalists

Meanwhile they’re almost totally ignored by most “Russia experts”
Why? Well, for the same reason they love Dugin. Once they established Russia is so Mystic and Irrational, they’ll look for whatever fits into their preconceptions and ignore the rest

Every Russian with half a brain knows how to use it for their own advantage
Read 6 tweets

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