Following its sudden withdrawal of strict Covid-19 containment measures, the Chinese government has no choice but to import mRNA vaccines and antiviral medications if it hopes to limit a looming surge in Covid-19-related deaths, according to two US-based experts.

Without lockdowns or other mitigation measures, and in the absence of mRNA vaccines, China can expect as many as 500,000 Covid-related deaths by April of next year, said Ali Mokdad, a professor at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

He said that number could be cut in half if Chinese authorities enforce proper masking, introduce lockdowns where hospitals are filled beyond 80 per cent of capacity and adopt full transparency on the number of local infections.

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“Ninety-eight per cent of Americans have been infected at least once with Covid-19, and this will happen in China, but it’s going to happen in a shorter time,” said Mokdad, a former senior epidemiologist with the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.