OUTDOOR TRANSMISSION—Jogger infects dozens in a park—via surveillance videos, investigators identified 256 people who passed within 1 meter of Patient ZERO as he jogged without a mask—13 (5%) infected, plus 20 more park visitors. 85% perfect #COVID19 variant match to Patient 0!
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Bob Morris, MD, PhD
@rdmorris
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Overwhelming evidence of outdoor transmission of Omicron. At least 32 unmasked people were infected by a man jogging through a park without a mask. Nothing beats a surveillance state for contact tracing. Details in the thread.
https://covid.dropcite.com/articles/0bda88cc-8aaf-4de6-94f2-4bd23ee5c036…
2) 38 of the 39 infected park visitors were unmasked. Also while 85% had perfect genome match of their strain to Patient Zero, the other 15% (5 of 34) were just 1 single mutation different—hence likely still caught from patient zero.
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Bob Morris, MD, PhD
@rdmorris
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Of 34 cases that could be sequenced, 29 had exact sequence match to patient zero and 5 had one mutation. Overall 38 of 39 (33+ 6 non-park contacts) infected were unmasked (despite China's mask mandate).
4) Outdoor transmission has been suspected for a long time. Just been hard to prove in Western countries with the lack of detailed contact tracing. Many fleeting transmission been found at outdoor stadiums previously.
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Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
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Worried—We are now seeing lots of outdoor-only #DeltaVariant transmission between strangers with no direct contact. These sports attendees weren’t even sitting together—likely fleeting transmission at “pinch points” (bottlenecks) at stadium gates. This would change everything. twitter.com/NjbBari3/statu…
5) Last year at soccer match between England and Scotland, there was a big COVID outbreak immediately afterward among those who traveled and attended. I wonder now about the World Cup….
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Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
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BREAKING—Nearly 2,000 #COVID19 cases in Scotland now linked to attendees of #Euro2020 events—#DeltaVariant. 2/3rds of cases had travelled to London for Scotland vs England. 90% male. now has **all-time record high Covid** plus hospitalizations. https://bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-57667163…
6) Timeline—notice negative tests on travel date and day after arriving home!
Patient Zero had returned from Tibet.
8/13: back from Tibet; neg PCR
8/14: neg PCR
8/15: swabbed at night; fatigued
8/16: fateful morning jog. PCR returns positive from 8/15
https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2022.209…
7) Where else have we seen “fleeting” exposure that have led to #COVID19 infections & outbreaks? Last year in NSW Australia — “mere second” of exposure at a large shopping mall. This is consistent with the fleeting exposure in the outdoor park. Watch video
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Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
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“NO MORE THAN MERE SECONDS” of exposure in 10-60 centimeters where one man triggers several #DeltaVariant infections with brief “fleeting” contact. Thousands of shoppers at NSW mass tested. Delta called “near & present danger”.
HT @lizziepearl. #COVID19
8) But shopping mall is indoors — c’mon, any outdoor fleeting exposure infection? Yes—I have a long memory in this pandemic… the fleeting contact at an outdoor cafe was also recorded in NSW Australia last year—its all been documented before!
6) Cmon, must be have a one time random event. Right? Wrong! “It is the second “fleeting contact” transmission connected to the first case. A woman in her 70s was sitting outside a cafe that the initial case had visited and genomic sequencing of her virus is an exact match”
Remember, vigorous exercise = much higher respiration rate = much higher generation rate of infectious particles.
Risk is higher still if both infected and susceptible are exercising (higher exhale rate AND higher inhale rate).
Also likely, bringing virus up from deep in the chest, versus regular shallow breathing. Singing, yelling, were always known to be particularly dangerous
That the Omicron variant of Covid spreads so easily that 32 joggers caught it from one person who was also jogging in the park. The initial person was the only one who had been infected prior to jogging.