The Pope being Pope. This line of reasoning is based upon a premise that Russian people may not be responsible for the Russian aggression. It's always someone else's fault, in this case - the fault of minorities
What is worse, Russian "liberal opposition" shares this conviction
Prediction: should the regime change and the "liberal opposition" take power, this will become the official narrative. Since Russian people/culture are blameless, liberals will declare minorities to be responsible both for Putinism and for Z-invasion
(they already do btw)
Potential regime change in Moscow will *not* mark the break with the official nationalism but rather its revival. New authorities will equate Putinism and minorities and then launch a crackdown on minorities picturing this as a "fight against Putinism"
Should Putin fall, the "anti-Putinist" agenda would be weaponised for concentrating even more powers in Moscow, and completing centralisation and homogenisation of the empire. It gonna be "liberals" who will finish Putin's job hiding behind the "anti-Putinist" rhetorics
Russian "liberal opposition" shares Putin's imperialist philosophy with all its basic premises. They just use different shibboleths but that's it. There's no indication they would change the course except for the wishful thinking of too many Western journalists and politicians
You will understand the Russian opposition better if you just learn its basic premise: it's always someone else's fault. Even if atrocities are done by the Russian army, it's still someone else's fault - in this case the Inner Other, like Buryats
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The "crimes" narrative is dangerous. It shifts the responsibility as low down the hierarchy as possible, picturing atrocities as incidental rather than systemic. It is lowkey legitimising the invasion: the idea is fine, the execution is questionable
These crimes were not a collection of separate incidents, but merely the aspects of one big crime - the Russian invasion. They wouldn't happen, if Russia did not invade. Therefore, considering them outside of this context = shifting responsibility down the hierarchy
The "crimes" narrative is tangible to the situation in Russia itself. In Rostov regions where the troops concentrate, the violent crimes rate is skyrocketing. This rampage of violence can indeed be described as a collection of separate "crimes". The situation in Ukraine can't
Well, most of modern Ukraine was either conquered or incorporated to Russia under Catherine II. She was probably the most aggressive ruler of the Russian Empire, not counting Peter I, and spent most of her reign in ambitious wars of expansion in the West and in the South
Age of Catherine is viewed as the Golden Age of the Russian Empire. Wars, conquests, luxury of St Petersburg. That was paid by incredible human misery. Economy-wise reign of Catherine was catastrophic: Catherine led Russia to the greatest economic contraction it had in the 18th c
Russian serfdom was continuously exacerbating since at least the 16th c. In 1600 it can be still characterised as "serfdom". By 1750 it turned into the New World-style plantation slavery: serfs were bought and sold individually at the slave auctions much like Blacks in Americas
Rearmament of the Russian military industry based on the technological import from the West scaled up once Putin took power. Local peaks were reached around 2007 and 2013. Most recent escalation of import started in 2019 and continues till 2022 with the Covid interruption in 2020
This suggests that 2019 is when Russia probably started preparing for this war. The lockdown disruption of the supply chains might have delayed this war, but could not prevent it as in 2021 rearmament resumed again
Why peaks in 2007 and 2013? Well, in 2008 we had a global crisis and in 2014 Russian currency devaluated by half -> import became more expensive. So the rate of rearmament correlates with the general affordability of import. The more import we can afford the more equipment we buy
So yeah, with every year of this war Europe will be getting poorer and poorer. There is a non-zero chance of it becoming destitute, should the war last for long. And it will be 100% self-inflicted. Moreover, it is being self-inflicted right now as Europe continues to arm Russia
Actions have consequences. And arming a malevolent aggressive power next to your borders *does* have consequences. The more you arm it, the more aggressive it becomes, increasing the risk of a war that will impoverish your continent. Fuck around, and find out basically
I think that the USG should explore the possibility of incentivising German, Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Taiwanese, Korean and Spanish companies to shut down their machines on Russian military plants that produce Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander and other cruise and ballistic missiles
I would add Japan and Czechia to the list but in their case I have a reason to believe their national governments are concerned about the role their industry is playing in arming Putin and are looking for ways to stop or minimise that. Still USG could help a lot in their case too
Contrary to the popular belief, Russian capacities for mass production of high precision components do NOT rely on Chinese import, but rather on import + training received from a handful of developed countries located in Western Europe and East Asia
On a highway leading from Chechnya to Dagestan there is a traffic light. It is always red. Every day thousands of cars have to drive through this 24/7 red light to pass from one region to another. This isn't a mistake, but a well-organised system. Look at the arc on the right 🧵
This monumental arc marks a checkpoint leading to the Hosi Yurt (now Akhmat Yurt) - the native village of Kadyrov. Akhmat Yurt is guarded all around its perimeter, much like any of Putin's residences. Only the natives of a village are allowed in
Honestly nowhere in Russia have I seen another place with such a concentrated aura of personal power. Security measures are really impressive: from the armed guard to the radio jammers. You can notice it when your mobile network stops working in a few kilometres from the village