Kamil Galeev Profile picture
21h 12 tweets 5 min read
Well, most of modern Ukraine was either conquered or incorporated to Russia under Catherine II. She was probably the most aggressive ruler of the Russian Empire, not counting Peter I, and spent most of her reign in ambitious wars of expansion in the West and in the South Image
Age of Catherine is viewed as the Golden Age of the Russian Empire. Wars, conquests, luxury of St Petersburg. That was paid by incredible human misery. Economy-wise reign of Catherine was catastrophic: Catherine led Russia to the greatest economic contraction it had in the 18th c Image
Russian serfdom was continuously exacerbating since at least the 16th c. In 1600 it can be still characterised as "serfdom". By 1750 it turned into the New World-style plantation slavery: serfs were bought and sold individually at the slave auctions much like Blacks in Americas Image
The reign of Catherine II was the absolute lowest point of the Russian slavery. Until Catherine serfs had a right to complain to the Tsar about their mistreatment. Around 1650 this right was still real: sometimes the Tsar would punish the owners, even confiscating their estates Image
By the times of Peter I circa 1700 this right became theoretical. Yes, serfs could complain about their mistreatment. It's just their complaints would be almost automatically dismissed as a lie. You can complain but there's nearly 0% chance the government would do anything Image
Finally, Catherine II abolished even the formal right of complaint. She prohibited serfs to complain about mistreatment by their owners and punished those who tried to complain it with lifetime sentences at the Siberian silver mines in Nerchinsk Image
Why would Catherine do that? Was she misinformed? No, she was perfectly informed. She was one of the smartest persons who ever ruled Russia and knew exactly about the dire state of the serfs who comprised the majority of her subjects Image
Remarks she left on the letter margins are very telling. One her correspondent wrote about the perfect love between the serfs and their owners:

"Sure, and that's why serfs are murdering their masters so often" wrote Catherine

Privately she was very sceptical about the narrative Image
From the perspective of an HBO producer this evolution may look as an ascension to the heights of wokeness. But from perspective of subjects it looked like the descension into the heart of darkness. Serfs gradually lost all their rights and were reduced to plantation slavery Image
I think that King's argument results from a blend of two wrong ideas:

1) The problem of a tyrannical political system could be solved, if we only found a "correct" tyrant to lead it

2) Aggression is an inherently masculine quality, which women are more or less devoid from
Arguing that female leadership would be necessarily gentle we are coming dangerously close to the No True Scotsman fallacy. I don't see why a female leader couldn't promote militarism, slavery and genocide like Catherine II did, if the political system she leads allows for it
PS For the most of the 18th c. Russian empire was led by females. This graph suggests that female styles of leadership could diverge as much as the male ones. Woman can be pacifist or pursue endless wars whatever the cost for her subjects. Provided that the system allows for it Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Nov 26
Rearmament of the Russian military industry based on the technological import from the West scaled up once Putin took power. Local peaks were reached around 2007 and 2013. Most recent escalation of import started in 2019 and continues till 2022 with the Covid interruption in 2020
This suggests that 2019 is when Russia probably started preparing for this war. The lockdown disruption of the supply chains might have delayed this war, but could not prevent it as in 2021 rearmament resumed again
Why peaks in 2007 and 2013? Well, in 2008 we had a global crisis and in 2014 Russian currency devaluated by half -> import became more expensive. So the rate of rearmament correlates with the general affordability of import. The more import we can afford the more equipment we buy
Read 4 tweets
Nov 26
You are not wrong. European companies provided Russian military producers that manufacture everything you just described and more with:

- hardware
- software
- training

to do their job. Now Europe will be paying its price for arming a malevolent power next to their borders
So yeah, with every year of this war Europe will be getting poorer and poorer. There is a non-zero chance of it becoming destitute, should the war last for long. And it will be 100% self-inflicted. Moreover, it is being self-inflicted right now as Europe continues to arm Russia
Actions have consequences. And arming a malevolent aggressive power next to your borders *does* have consequences. The more you arm it, the more aggressive it becomes, increasing the risk of a war that will impoverish your continent. Fuck around, and find out basically
Read 6 tweets
Nov 24
I think that the USG should explore the possibility of incentivising German, Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Taiwanese, Korean and Spanish companies to shut down their machines on Russian military plants that produce Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander and other cruise and ballistic missiles
I would add Japan and Czechia to the list but in their case I have a reason to believe their national governments are concerned about the role their industry is playing in arming Putin and are looking for ways to stop or minimise that. Still USG could help a lot in their case too
Contrary to the popular belief, Russian capacities for mass production of high precision components do NOT rely on Chinese import, but rather on import + training received from a handful of developed countries located in Western Europe and East Asia
Read 4 tweets
Nov 23
On a highway leading from Chechnya to Dagestan there is a traffic light. It is always red. Every day thousands of cars have to drive through this 24/7 red light to pass from one region to another. This isn't a mistake, but a well-organised system. Look at the arc on the right 🧵 Image
This monumental arc marks a checkpoint leading to the Hosi Yurt (now Akhmat Yurt) - the native village of Kadyrov. Akhmat Yurt is guarded all around its perimeter, much like any of Putin's residences. Only the natives of a village are allowed in Image
Honestly nowhere in Russia have I seen another place with such a concentrated aura of personal power. Security measures are really impressive: from the armed guard to the radio jammers. You can notice it when your mobile network stops working in a few kilometres from the village Image
Read 36 tweets
Nov 21
👇When we are talking about a truce or even peace, we should keep in mind that Russia won't be honouring it. Any ceasefire will be used for regrouping, restocking and then attacking again with a better chance of success. Notice that they compare Russian situation to Khasavyurt
First Chechen war 1994-1996 ended with Khasavyurt Accords. Russia withdrew it forces from Chechnya. Independence of Chechnya remained an open question which had to be determined by 2001 Image
Next year, in 1997 Russia signed a peace treaty with Chechnya. President Yeltsin agreed on "rejecting forever the use of force" and "developing relations on the norms of international law". Many viewed it as the de facto recognition of independence Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 20
I'd say that is a false dichotomy. Logic may help to do what you do in a more or less efficient way. But *what* you choose to do - this choice is arbitrary. You may pursue your goals in a rational way, yes, but the choice of a goal is irrational. Refusal to choose - also a choice
Still, if we have to compare, most Russians tend to be more pragmatic than most Westerners. So using your term, *more* logical. They're more oriented to pursue earthly, material goals. It's just that the planning horizon is very short, so this behaviour seems to be "irrational"
Example - send your sons to the war, so you can get material benefits. Absolutely rational, pragmatic behaviour with a short planning horizon. They absolutely do count, they just count badly and do not look forward too far. That doesn't mean they're not pragmatic, they are
Read 4 tweets

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