And here goes the new round of donations for the Ukrainian army. Thanks to everyone who has donated last time! Here's one piece of equipment paid for by your money: a vehicle for the 58th brigade. Today I'll post some more donation links🧵
1. Communications equipment for the 1st (Bogun) Brigade. Radio batteries, antennas, etc
BTC bc1qsksu2x0lnqs09yv3qtsdlxgxjsmqecdqrmjhvy
ETH 0x08447D07152d7E2d566ecD7462dC862262850636
2. The orcbusters fund is crowdfunding for the 1-ASU Valkiriya drones used for adjusting the artillery fire, vehicles, winter clothes for soldiers, etc. You can find wire transfer, card payment, crypto etc. donation details on their website
3. Chechen Sheikh Mansur Battalion is crowdfunding for a drone. Currently they are approximately 3250 usd short. These are pro-Ichkeriya and anti-Kadyrov Chechens fighting on the Ukrainian side in this war
4. Dutch-located "Zeilen van Vrijheid" fund buying ambulance cars and medical kits for Ukraine zeilenvanvrijheid.nl Unlike many others they have "US bank transfer to tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity" links both for individuals and corporations as well as PayPal, GoFundme, etc
11. Fund "Come back alive" savelife.in.ua/en/donate-en/#… a large fund specialised on providing the troops with everything necessary. They accept wire transfers, payments by card and crypto donations
I see why many would want to pressure Ukraine to "negotiations" (=concessions). At the same time, I think proponents of appeasement do not understand Russian motives at all. The Russian invasion is motivated by *domestic* policy concerns. Which are still valid -> war can't stop
The early Putin's era was marked by the quickly rising oil prices. Russia was showered in oil revenues and the standards of life were objectively improving with every year. Incomes and quality of life improving, boosted Putin's legitimacy greatly
So early Putinism mostly operated with:
Economy rising -> More legitimacy
That wasn't the sole mechanism of regime legitimisation (wars also played a part), it was just an objectively more important part of the mix. People attributed their rising standards of life to Putin
Great question. Long story short: USSR organised competition artificially. We never have only one producer of e.g. bombers, we always have at least two rival structures. Let them fight
After 2000 Putin eliminated this competition, merging previously rivalling structure together
Russian export structure is simple. You just need to:
1. Take few key industries under yr direct control (oil, gas) 2. Enforce compliance of the oligarchs controlling smaller industries (e.g. metallurgy) 3. Prevent any independent fortunes emerging in other industries
No independent fortunes -> No one can challenge the supreme power
Now compare Russian export structure with Turkish. Its economy is way more complicated and allows for independent fortunes to emerge. That makes regime less stable. Controlling Turkey is much harder than Russia
Russia has major exports revenues generated by a few extractive corporations -> Leader has an option of destroying independent fortunes or preventing them from emerging -> He'll do it
If regime can sacrifice economic progress for political stability, it will do it. Russia can
NYT seems to be so desperate to find some "saviour figure" in Russia that they don't care about their credibility anymore. Sobchak is not a "socialite" or a "critic of regime". She may be the highest born aristocrat of Russia, flesh of the flesh of the ruling St Petersburg gang
Modern Russian elite was not created by Putin. It was casted in the corridors of the St Petersburg city government during the mayorship of Anatoly Sobchak, Xenia's father
Sobchak's team included:
Putin, Medvedev, Chubais, Kudrin, Miller, Sechin, Churov, Gref, Zubkov, Kozak, Zubkov, Naryshkin and many others. After Putin inherited the throne, he appointed his all St Petersburg pals at pretty much all positions of importance
I don't see any indication that China would see the Russian Far East as a preferable direction of expansion. What I see is the wishful thinking of too many US journalists/analysts who would love to see Moscow and Being clashing over Siberia. I think that's highly improbable
Russia is shrinking. And it is shrinking southwestward. Sunbelt around Krasnodar is the fastest growing region in Russia, while much of the Far East is turning into the empty desert. Economic and demographic centres of Russia are shifting to Europe, towards the Black Sea
War with Ukraine makes total sense
War with Turkey makes total sense
War with China makes no sense
Russia is shifting to the southwest. The East is turning to desert that Moscow won't fight over. It's Moscow that tries to attract Beijing to Siberia, while Beijing hesitates
I didn't like this cartoon. It misses the key element: outrageously high monetary compensations for soldiers KIA. For the most of Russian history, compensations were minuscule (if any). So draft was viewed as a tax. Now they're unprecedentedly high. So it is seen as an investment
This is largely a Ponzi scheme though. For it to work you need first few investors to get lavish returns on their investments. Once you do this, plenty of greedy and gullible folk will flock to you from everywhere. It's them whom you gonna cheat
Special Operation is a typical Ponzi. First families get outrageously high returns on their investments (relatives KIA). Their profits are advertised on TV 24/7. That's how you attract more investors willing to send their sons/husbands to the war. They will be disappointed though