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I don't see any indication that China would see the Russian Far East as a preferable direction of expansion. What I see is the wishful thinking of too many US journalists/analysts who would love to see Moscow and Being clashing over Siberia. I think that's highly improbable
Russia is shrinking. And it is shrinking southwestward. Sunbelt around Krasnodar is the fastest growing region in Russia, while much of the Far East is turning into the empty desert. Economic and demographic centres of Russia are shifting to Europe, towards the Black Sea
War with Ukraine makes total sense
War with Turkey makes total sense
War with China makes no sense
Russia is shifting to the southwest. The East is turning to desert that Moscow won't fight over. It's Moscow that tries to attract Beijing to Siberia, while Beijing hesitates
War with Turkey makes total sense
War with China makes no sense
Russia is shifting to the southwest. The East is turning to desert that Moscow won't fight over. It's Moscow that tries to attract Beijing to Siberia, while Beijing hesitates
I know many would like to clash Moscow and Beijing 1905-style. I don't think it'll happen. In 1905 Russia was young rapidly growing country with an average age of around 17 y.o. Of course it was expanding east. Now it is old, dying, shrinking country. And it's shrinking westward
Russia is depopulating. But *some* parts of it are growing quickly. Agglomerations of St Petersburg, Moscow, Krasnodar attract almost all internal migrants. Ergo, most natural directions of expansion are:
1) Baltic Sea
2) Black Sea
Should Russia exit, it will be expanding here
1) Baltic Sea
2) Black Sea
Should Russia exit, it will be expanding here
PS Unless the US makes absolutely clear it won't defend the Baltic countries and Finland, my bet would be - Black Sea
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