@mentions@elonmusk style may look tricksterish. That's understandable. He is an innovator, ergo disruptor and disruption may be sometimes undistinguishable from tricksterism. Content-wise though the problem with Musk is that he's creating new stuff. That he is a non-violent entrepreneur🧵
@mentions@elonmusk Don't get me wrong. I think that innovators do not get nearly enough credit for what they doing. I even noticed a weird pattern: people tend to shittalk the most about that specific industry their city/state is especially dependent upon. Still, non-violent business has a problem
And the problem with the non-violent business is that it is non-violent. Which means it is *outsourcing* violence and thus security. Indeed, all of Elon Musk's proposals suddenly make sense if you assume they are written by a businessman who is outsourcing security of his empire
There is violence going on? Bad, very bad. Violence is a liability. Let's just stop it. How? By signing a "deal". With whom though? With a *violent* businessman who's doing this violence. Sounds incredible but this is exactly how a non-violent businessman's brains are working
And that is why the non-violent businessmen have been crawling on their knees before the violent ones for the 99% of recorded human history
NB: This is assuming that the violent businessmen would even allow the non-violent ones to exist (which is far from granted)
Still, if @elonmusk exists, that means he has not been selected out. Ergo, his strategy worked out. Why? Because he lived in an artificial, abnormal environment which selected out the *violent* entrepreneurs, allowing the non-violent ones to flourish
A beautiful anomaly
How is the US environment abnormal? That's easy to explain. What shocked me in the US is that so many (real) crypto investors etc are very outspoken about their business activities in social media. They literally write about being crypto holders in Twitter bio. Unbelievable!
Let me get this straight. If you are a crypto guy, then:
1. You prolly hold lots of cash in your wallet 2. Which I could immediately transfer to mine 3. All I need is to force you to disclose your PIN (or whatever) to access your wallet
I mean, that's quite obvious, isn't it?
This thought is not that original. Plenty of people should have come up with this idea. Still, American cryptobros are writing about being cryptobros in social media, posting photos of where they live, etc. And they are still alive. So they are not being selected out. How come?
Hunting for cryptobros sounds like a great hustle for a violent entrepreneur. Still, we don't see it happening: outspoken cryptobros are alive (=not selected out). Ergo, the high end violent entrepreneurs who would select them out are being selected out. Under-appreciated fact
(Off-topic: people r complaining about how dangerous US cities are. Well, that's partially because you guys do not allow proper mafia to emerge. In much of the outer world authorities delegate controlling the street crime to mafia bosses. But you need centralised mafia for that)
In contrast, Russian cryptobros that I know tend to act very, very lowkey. The fewer people know about your activities, the better. Posting about dealing with crypto in social media is absolutely unthinkable. Why? Because that makes you too easy and lucrative prey
Consider this news which made the headlines in 2021. There is an abandoned suburban settlement near St Petersburg. This house is especially remarkable because it stands over a bunker with an underground prison
This underground prison is well-equipped. The entrance is covered by a concrete block which is moved up & down by a hydraulic press located outside. So there is a zero chance you will be able to get out of the prison by yourself
What is interesting about this prison is that it looks like an *exact* copy of a real Russian prison for investigated (СИЗО). Cells, beds, doors everything is super authentic. Even the locks on the cell doors are 100% copys of real locks from the St Petersburg "Кресты" prison
Why would you need everything from the locks to the beds in this underground prison to look 100% like in a real prison? Well, most probably to make the prisoners to *believe* they are in a real prison
Most likely:
1) you think you are in real prison 2) officers demand you to do something 3) you assume if you do it, they'll let you go. That's why you need (1)
It is likely this is prison for cryptobros. Just say your PIN and we'll let you go
Surprise: the underground prison is also equipped with a crematorium. This furnace is just big enough to fit a human body
That's why a prisoner needs to *believe* they are in real prison. You think you give them what they want -> they let you go. Sounds good, doesn't work
The house was probably built around 2010 but never registered. So on paper it never existed. Whom did the land beneath it belong to then? Well, to Renat Alimzanov, a captain of Russian FSIN - Federal Penitentiary Service which manages the *actual* Russian prison. He died in 2018
Most likely explanation:
Russian federal prison officer built an underground prison as an exact copy of a real prison. There he persuaded kidnapped ppl they are in a real prison. They'd give him wants he wanted, then he'd kill & burn them. In 2018 he died, prison was abandoned
I could keep on, but honestly I need to go. So I'll finish this with a brief summary:
1. Non-violent entrepreneurs that are actually creating stuff do not get enough credit for what they are doing. They play huge role in wealth-creation
2. Still, they're an abnormality. They create prosperity, yes, but they may flourish only in the artificial environment where the high-end violent entrepreneurs are being (constantly!) wiped out. They're the hothouse flowers, to put it simply
3. Much of the outer world is destitute because of violent entrepreneurs. Violent entrepreneurs are not wiped out -> they wipe out the non-violent ones -> the country cannot create stuff -> It is destitute
4. Those who advocate for "tougher law enforcement" are clueless. In much of this world, the law enforcement is just another, superior form of violent entrepreneurship. Under normal circumstances, that's an upgrade of mafia, not a solution for the problem
5. That may explain why Russian army and the military equipment are so archaic btw. In order to create something new, e.g. drones you normally need non-violent entrepreneurs who would actually create stuff. In Russia they're being wiped out by the violent ones. Hence, no drones
6. The non-violent entrepreneurs create wealth. But they can flourish only under abnormal circumstances with the violent ones wiped out. Then they tend to perceive their abnormal circumstances as normal and their artificial security as given
6. The non-violent entrepreneurs create wealth (and stuff in general). But they can flourish only under abnormal circumstances with the violent ones wiped out. Then they tend to perceive their abnormal circumstances as normal and their artificial security as given
7. Non-violent entrepreneurs have prospered under artificially secure conditions and having (unknowingly) outsourced their security. If they don't understand it, you'd be much better off ignoring their advice when it comes to security and foreign policy. End of 🧵
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The Red Square was really crowded during the Putin's speech. Here is the context. All these buses had been bringing here бюджетники (government employees) to serve as the Putin's audience.
Here is a paradox. Westerners tend to hugely underestimate the level of passive compliance which a ruler in Kremlin enjoys (nearly total). At the same time, they tend to hugely overestimate the level of the *active* support he enjoys. Most of it is very, very passive
Yes, Putin has lots of supporters. And yet, almost no one of them would choose to spend their free time coming to the Red Square and listening to his speech. So he is forced to ship there government employees en masse, to serve as his audience
I think Kremlin may view nuclear strike on Ukraine (with an American retaliatory strike) as a rational move. It may not make much sense in the context of foreign policy, but it does in the context of domestic policy. Meanwhile foreign policy is just domestic policy by other means
My argument is based on three premises:
1. Foreign policy serves domestic policy goals 2. Keeping power is *the* top priority of domestic policy 3. Kremlin is looking for a way out of the conflict
Launching a nuclear strike and getting a retaliatory one may be seen as a way out
If Putin is looking for a way out, that probably means he is looking for a way out that would allow him to keep the supreme political power. Which may be incompatible with suffering a humiliating military defeat from a supposedly inferior force. Like Japan in 1905 and Ukraine now
When the mobilisation in Russia started, I wondered how they would train them all having only one modern training ground in the country?
That's the neat part. They won't
* Rheinmetall AG-built and supplied Mulino training ground which was used for training the army of invasion
PS and yes, Rheinmetall's awkward denial that they "did not supply the simulation technology" is a lie. Of course, you did. And the last shipment I have hard evidence of arrived on November 22, 2019. How do I know it? Well, it is designated in the customs documentation
КАТ. 18.2 ШАЙБЫ ПЛОСКИЕ, СТАЛЬНЫЕ, БЕЗ РЕЗЬБЫ, ПАЗОВ И ПРОТОЧЕК НЕТ, КОМПОНЕНТЫ ИЗ СОСТАВА МНОГОЯРУСНАЯ СКЛАДСКАЯ СИСТЕМА ПО ПЕРЕЧНЮ № 1: ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИИ
With everything. Police, National Guard, FSO, FSB. Everything centralised & obedient to Moscow. This year they disbanded the last governors' bodyguard services and put National Guard. Like, even few dozens armed guys responsible directly to the governor is too much. Must be zero
Russia has few millions Siloviki: an internal army which is *far* larger than the normal army and is focused on keeping control. It's all responsible to the Kremlin. Its true size is difficult to estimate, partially because it also consists from the "private military companies"..
... that have no legal status in Russia. We talk of "private military companies" such as Wagner, Redut, etc. but this category just does not exist in the Russian law. Some of them just don't exist in a legal sense. Other have a status of "Private security company" on paper
(Continuation - Ford vehicles for the mortar men, but in crypto)
BTC bc1qsksu2x0lnqs09yv3qtsdlxgxjsmqecdqrmjhvy
ETH 0x08447D07152d7E2d566ecD7462dC862262850636
These guys are collecting money for the deported Ukrainians in a certain Russian city (I don't name it, but I know them). They're buying clothes, medicine and helping them to leave to third countries (Europe mostly)
I disagree. I think this is not about "fascist rivals" (he deeply despises the public politics) but about the need to restore control over the ruling clique. Show them all he is still in charge, that he still commands obedience. Otherwise, why do his own henchmen need him?
I would also hypothesise that mobilisation may result from Putin's isolation in Samarkand. Why is Putin even special from the rest? In the past, he had special relations with the Western leaders. "Tony Blair talks with me"-style representation was a major factor of legitimisation
Then he lost it, but at least he had special relations with the leaders of great Asian powers. That's something. But Samarkand may have shown that he doesn't have it anymore. Even leaders of smaller Central Asian countries openly disrespect him. That's almost complete isolation