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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 1 4 tweets 1 min read
The Red Square was really crowded during the Putin's speech. Here is the context. All these buses had been bringing here бюджетники (government employees) to serve as the Putin's audience.
Here is a paradox. Westerners tend to hugely underestimate the level of passive compliance which a ruler in Kremlin enjoys (nearly total). At the same time, they tend to hugely overestimate the level of the *active* support he enjoys. Most of it is very, very passive
Yes, Putin has lots of supporters. And yet, almost no one of them would choose to spend their free time coming to the Red Square and listening to his speech. So he is forced to ship there government employees en masse, to serve as his audience
Russia is a country of extreme, unthinkable passivity. It goes both ways though. Very few would make a choice to lift a finger against regime. But even less people would make a choice to lift their finger *for* regime. That's why Russian political structure is super fragile

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More from @kamilkazani

Sep 29
I think Kremlin may view nuclear strike on Ukraine (with an American retaliatory strike) as a rational move. It may not make much sense in the context of foreign policy, but it does in the context of domestic policy. Meanwhile foreign policy is just domestic policy by other means
My argument is based on three premises:

1. Foreign policy serves domestic policy goals
2. Keeping power is *the* top priority of domestic policy
3. Kremlin is looking for a way out of the conflict

Launching a nuclear strike and getting a retaliatory one may be seen as a way out
If Putin is looking for a way out, that probably means he is looking for a way out that would allow him to keep the supreme political power. Which may be incompatible with suffering a humiliating military defeat from a supposedly inferior force. Like Japan in 1905 and Ukraine now
Read 14 tweets
Sep 27
When the mobilisation in Russia started, I wondered how they would train them all having only one modern training ground in the country?

That's the neat part. They won't

* Rheinmetall AG-built and supplied Mulino training ground which was used for training the army of invasion
PS and yes, Rheinmetall's awkward denial that they "did not supply the simulation technology" is a lie. Of course, you did. And the last shipment I have hard evidence of arrived on November 22, 2019. How do I know it? Well, it is designated in the customs documentation
КАТ. 18.2 ШАЙБЫ ПЛОСКИЕ, СТАЛЬНЫЕ, БЕЗ РЕЗЬБЫ, ПАЗОВ И ПРОТОЧЕК НЕТ, КОМПОНЕНТЫ ИЗ СОСТАВА МНОГОЯРУСНАЯ СКЛАДСКАЯ СИСТЕМА ПО ПЕРЕЧНЮ № 1: ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИИ

HS Code: 7318220009

Shipper: RHEINMETALL DEFENCE ELECTRONICS GMBH

Arrival Date: 2019-11-22
Read 12 tweets
Sep 24
With everything. Police, National Guard, FSO, FSB. Everything centralised & obedient to Moscow. This year they disbanded the last governors' bodyguard services and put National Guard. Like, even few dozens armed guys responsible directly to the governor is too much. Must be zero
Russia has few millions Siloviki: an internal army which is *far* larger than the normal army and is focused on keeping control. It's all responsible to the Kremlin. Its true size is difficult to estimate, partially because it also consists from the "private military companies"..
... that have no legal status in Russia. We talk of "private military companies" such as Wagner, Redut, etc. but this category just does not exist in the Russian law. Some of them just don't exist in a legal sense. Other have a status of "Private security company" on paper
Read 6 tweets
Sep 23
More donation links. Mortar men of the Ukrainian 58th brigade collect money for Ford vehicles

Bank: JSC UNIVERSAL BANK
City: KYIV, UKRAINE
Swift: UNJSUAUKXXX
IBAN: UA403220010000026204329575932
Account: 26204329575932
Receiver: PARFONOV HLIB
PayPal gleb.parfenov95@gmail.com
(Continuation - Ford vehicles for the mortar men, but in crypto)

BTC bc1qsksu2x0lnqs09yv3qtsdlxgxjsmqecdqrmjhvy
ETH 0x08447D07152d7E2d566ecD7462dC862262850636
These guys are collecting money for the deported Ukrainians in a certain Russian city (I don't name it, but I know them). They're buying clothes, medicine and helping them to leave to third countries (Europe mostly)

Сбер: 2202201880672395
PayPal: displacedukrainians@gmail.com
Read 5 tweets
Sep 22
I disagree. I think this is not about "fascist rivals" (he deeply despises the public politics) but about the need to restore control over the ruling clique. Show them all he is still in charge, that he still commands obedience. Otherwise, why do his own henchmen need him?
I would also hypothesise that mobilisation may result from Putin's isolation in Samarkand. Why is Putin even special from the rest? In the past, he had special relations with the Western leaders. "Tony Blair talks with me"-style representation was a major factor of legitimisation
Then he lost it, but at least he had special relations with the leaders of great Asian powers. That's something. But Samarkand may have shown that he doesn't have it anymore. Even leaders of smaller Central Asian countries openly disrespect him. That's almost complete isolation
Read 5 tweets
Sep 22
Sabotage and assault reconnaissance group "Rusich" posted on their Telegram channel an instruction for "recycling the Ukrainian POWs". I translated it in full as it is quite informative Image
That is Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" group
That's how he first got publicity in 2011 btw. Future commander of Rusich and then afootball fan Milchakov recorded killing and eating a puppy and uploaded it all in the internet Image
Read 8 tweets

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