With everything. Police, National Guard, FSO, FSB. Everything centralised & obedient to Moscow. This year they disbanded the last governors' bodyguard services and put National Guard. Like, even few dozens armed guys responsible directly to the governor is too much. Must be zero
Russia has few millions Siloviki: an internal army which is *far* larger than the normal army and is focused on keeping control. It's all responsible to the Kremlin. Its true size is difficult to estimate, partially because it also consists from the "private military companies"..
... that have no legal status in Russia. We talk of "private military companies" such as Wagner, Redut, etc. but this category just does not exist in the Russian law. Some of them just don't exist in a legal sense. Other have a status of "Private security company" on paper
Some of "private security companies" are largely BS: few mid-aged unarmed alcoholics guarding a supermarket. Others - are real armies equipped much better than the regular Russian army. Altogether there are few million people serving there
But there is no conceivable way to establish who of these millions are unarmed shop-guarding alcoholics and who are small well-equipped armies, studying official statistics. On paper there is no difference. Also formal association often doesn't mean anything
On paper you are in one structure, but in fact - in completely another (for a number of reasons). That's absolutely normal and thus it's very, very difficult to interpret the statistics correctly. Especially when a number of these structures do not exist on paper at all
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Watched Top Gun last night. A 🧵 on military-Hollywood relations. 1/
I knew it was all light and sound but I had to watch it, simply to stay with the discourse. Simply put, both critics and the lay, LOVE it. This is in sharp contrast to most blockbusters which are hated by elite critics. There is no class gap here. 2/
I was surprised to see an ad for the air force before the film. The film is a 2 hour commercial for the air force. Do we really need the pre-commercial? 3/
NEW from Afghanistan: We spent weeks talking to dozens of Taliban insiders, including Haqqani commanders, who said ongoing power struggles are splitting the movement and driving members to defect. With @margheritamvswsj.com/articles/talib…
“A lot of mujahedeen have left the Taliban. If they don’t listen to us, many low-level Taliban will fight against them,” a 28 yo former Haqqani commander told us.
The ban on girls' education is a lightning rod inside the Taliban, supported only by an ultra-conservative minority. But the splits run much deeper: alleged nepotism, lack of salaries, religion and feuds over power and the limited spoils of victory are all creating tension.
1: The US and China are seriously talking past each other. This is not just about Pelosi. The US thinks this is about Chinese coercion. The Chinese think this is about a drift from “one China” to "one China, one Taiwan." That disconnect will lead to a very unstable new baseline.
2: The US line, reflected in comments by Blinken, Sullivan, and Kirby is that everything is normal, "routine," consistent with precedent, nothing to see here, and that the principal issue here is that Beijing is throwing a tantrum over a nothingburger and should knock it off.
3: Beijing, meanwhile, has been signaling from Xi, Wang, and others for 2+ years that “the US has misperceived and miscalculated China’s strategic intent” (Xi), “we want a real one China policy, not a fake one China policy” (Wang), and so on. All this predates Pelosi’s trip.
A (very) basic explainer on some aspects of the proposed #visaban to prevent tourists from #Russia entering the #EU’s Schengen zone.
(There are some shortcuts but this is basically what you need to know on some more technical aspects - & I welcome corrections!)
1/
A #visaban must hit Type C Schengen Short Stay visas
- the most common type of visa that allows entry to & movement in the jointly controlled free(r) movement area & stay of up to 90 days in any 180 day period. It can be single/double/multi entry for tourism or business. /2
Because this visa allows movement between Schengen countries it is what is currently being used by Russian tourists entering Finland & Estonia (via their land borders) to then move on to other countries in the Schengen zone (by plane) to get round the flight ban from #Russia. /3
(Continuation - Ford vehicles for the mortar men, but in crypto)
BTC bc1qsksu2x0lnqs09yv3qtsdlxgxjsmqecdqrmjhvy
ETH 0x08447D07152d7E2d566ecD7462dC862262850636
These guys are collecting money for the deported Ukrainians in a certain Russian city (I don't name it, but I know them). They're buying clothes, medicine and helping them to leave to third countries (Europe mostly)
I disagree. I think this is not about "fascist rivals" (he deeply despises the public politics) but about the need to restore control over the ruling clique. Show them all he is still in charge, that he still commands obedience. Otherwise, why do his own henchmen need him?
I would also hypothesise that mobilisation may result from Putin's isolation in Samarkand. Why is Putin even special from the rest? In the past, he had special relations with the Western leaders. "Tony Blair talks with me"-style representation was a major factor of legitimisation
Then he lost it, but at least he had special relations with the leaders of great Asian powers. That's something. But Samarkand may have shown that he doesn't have it anymore. Even leaders of smaller Central Asian countries openly disrespect him. That's almost complete isolation
Sabotage and assault reconnaissance group "Rusich" posted on their Telegram channel an instruction for "recycling the Ukrainian POWs". I translated it in full as it is quite informative
That is Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" group
That's how he first got publicity in 2011 btw. Future commander of Rusich and then afootball fan Milchakov recorded killing and eating a puppy and uploaded it all in the internet
Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia. Mobilisation is more likely to trigger political chaos
short🧵
Imagine, the government declared a total mobilisation and millions of young males are drafted into the army. What next? Now you need to:
1) test & allocate them (who goes where) 2) train & arm them 3) quarter & feed them 4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs
In order to execute 1-4 in case of the war, you need to maintain massive *excessive* capacities in the peace time. And the Soviet Union, did. One reason why Soviet army was so horribly excessive is that it maintained enormous excessive capacities just in case of mobilisation
Under Putin Russian social structure has been turning more and more rigid. It is recruiting too few ambitious upstarts, mostly in its economic agencies. Putin increasing and increasing retirement age for high officials means that option of "joining the table" doesn't really exist
That is why a significant number of the ambitious endorsed the war with Ukraine wholeheartedly. They hoped that artificial crisis will create the window of opportunities. Imagine if much of the current elite is purged for corruption/lack of patriotism? So many new vacancies
There is a nice study (unpublished) on the diverging regional strategies regarding mobilisation. Some governors are mobilising for the war unironically. Others are bullshiting and faking it. And there's clear correlation between the age and the BS/non-BS approach to mobilisation
I'm looking for an editor. I need to polish a 25 000 words long study on a certain military industrial complex. So, I am looking for a:
- Native English speaker
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In the beginning I will give you a general introduction in what it is all about. Most probably, in the course of work we'll have to organise further one-two calls with my team. Compensation is negotiable. Please DM me, if interested
PS I think I could offer around 1500-2000 usd for a well-qualified candidate with relevant experience and competences. If you've heard about AutoCAD or SolidWorks for example that certainly gonna be a plus point