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Sep 19 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Under Putin Russian social structure has been turning more and more rigid. It is recruiting too few ambitious upstarts, mostly in its economic agencies. Putin increasing and increasing retirement age for high officials means that option of "joining the table" doesn't really exist
That is why a significant number of the ambitious endorsed the war with Ukraine wholeheartedly. They hoped that artificial crisis will create the window of opportunities. Imagine if much of the current elite is purged for corruption/lack of patriotism? So many new vacancies
There is a nice study (unpublished) on the diverging regional strategies regarding mobilisation. Some governors are mobilising for the war unironically. Others are bullshiting and faking it. And there's clear correlation between the age and the BS/non-BS approach to mobilisation
The older a governor is, the higher the chance that he is faking it. Sometimes it amounts to nearly open sabotage. The younger a governor is, the higher the chance he is doing it thoroughly and enthusiastically. Because he *wants* disruption. He wants up
The idea that it is all just Putin's war is a lie. That's absolutely not true. Many people (and officials) support it. They invested in it heavily. Many are critical of Putin's system, despise its corruption, nepotism, inefficiency. They hoped the war would allow for a cleansing
Honestly, the "patriotic" criticism of Putism is a blind spot of the Western discourse. Patriots would love to cleanse the rotten system, purge corrupt officials and the wage the wars of imperial restorations more effectively. That's an *extremely* popular sentiment in Russia
The fact that "patriotic" criticism of Putin has nearly zero representation in the Western discourse shows that Westerners are absolutely delusional about the Russian internal discourse. Because they never paid attention to it in the first place and still don't want to

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
2h
Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia. Mobilisation is more likely to trigger political chaos

short🧵
Imagine, the government declared a total mobilisation and millions of young males are drafted into the army. What next? Now you need to:

1) test & allocate them (who goes where)
2) train & arm them
3) quarter & feed them
4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs
In order to execute 1-4 in case of the war, you need to maintain massive *excessive* capacities in the peace time. And the Soviet Union, did. One reason why Soviet army was so horribly excessive is that it maintained enormous excessive capacities just in case of mobilisation
Read 32 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 17
I'm looking for an editor. I need to polish a 25 000 words long study on a certain military industrial complex. So, I am looking for a:

- Native English speaker
- Preferably with media/academia/other relevant experience
- Preferably familiar with defence/tech/manufacturing
In the beginning I will give you a general introduction in what it is all about. Most probably, in the course of work we'll have to organise further one-two calls with my team. Compensation is negotiable. Please DM me, if interested
PS I think I could offer around 1500-2000 usd for a well-qualified candidate with relevant experience and competences. If you've heard about AutoCAD or SolidWorks for example that certainly gonna be a plus point
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 16
Ukraine has won the battle but not the war (yet). The sooner it wins, the less people will die and the less the poor of the world will suffer from the supply chain disruptions. Donating to the Ukrainian military, you can accelerate its victory. I collected some verified links🧵
1. Battalion of Kharkiv Territorial Defense, collecting funds for the military equipment
PayPal: oleg.iakovskyi@gmail.com
2. Pletenetskaya Alina collects funds for the ammunition for the Kharkiv military.

send.monobank.ua/jar/byF72Kx5n
PayPal: pletalex56@gmail.com
Read 22 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 14
As a result of the 1908-1913 revolution and subsequent purges, by the start of the WWI Turkish ruling class was aggressively and outspokenly secular. Jacobin-style secular, I would say. Halil Kut literally ordered to pour the strong alcohol (raki) on his grave Image
When I say "Jacobin style" I mean it literally rather than figuratively. In the early 20th c Turkey was run by the francophone elite speaking on a language of and with the tropes of the French Revolution. For example, when an army NCO was killed by the dervish-instigated crowd...
Ataturk ordered to proclaim that town where it happened the "ville maudite", evacuate population and destroy it completely, leaving only a monument to its destruction

Anyone with the basic knowledge of French history would get the reference Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 14
Paradox of ecumenism. The very idea that Turks and Azeri share the "similar religion" could rise in prominence only after Turkey (moderately) and Azerbaijan (radically) secularised

Secularisation -> Few care about Shia-Sunni differences -> We are one people, actually
Same with Christianity. I'll argue that secularisation made it easier to build pan-Christian movements. Few know or care about filioque, etc., so it is now much easier to work out a pan-Christian agenda than in the age when people actually knew or cared about the Christian creed
Secularization -> Dogma forgotten -> Substantial differences forgotten.

What remains then? Only the vague idea of cultural similarity. Which is more than enough to build a political alliance. Turkish-Azeri alliance is possible largely because these two countries secularised
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 11
It's time to update the list of introductory threads

1. By February 27, I concluded that Russia would lose this war. Russian army was overrated, Ukrainian - underrated, while Russian political goals misunderstood. They planned for 1968-style pacification

2. Avocado economy: Why Russia cannot manufacture anything?

An industry's level of complexity negatively correlates with the rank of interest groups controlling it in the Russian hierarchy. The more mafia-like, the more dominant, the simpler the industry

3. Russian military industry completely depends upon technological import from the West, not from China. Whereas Kremlin closed their eyes on importing European equipment and pretending it's Russian, it jailed those who tried to do the same with Chinese

Read 13 tweets

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