Kamil Galeev Profile picture
5h 17 tweets 7 min read
Czech manufacturer TDZ Turn posted this hilarious public statement on their website. They were triggered because Yale researchers led by @JeffSonnenfeld included them into the list of Western companies continuing to operate in Russia.

TDZ Turn seem to be really scared. Why?🧵 Image
We never operated in Russia directly. We do not have business contacts there. After annexation of Crimea we limited our operations to the minimum and (God forbid!) didn't work with sanctioned companies

Our conscience is clear. Unlike that of the American Yale University Image
Why is TDZ Turn so triggered? Well, because they helped to build the Russian nuclear arsenal. Russian ICBM and SLBM production is concentrated in Roskosmos megaholding or more specifically in its two sub-holdings:

1) JSC MITT (solid-propellant)
2) JSC Makeyev (liquid-propellant) Image
JSC Krasnoyarsk Machine Building Plant (Krasmash) is the key manufacturer of missiles within the JSC Makeyev Design Bureau Structure. Basically it is *the* bottleneck in Russian liquid propellant ballistic missiles production, such as the SLBM Sineva or ICBM Sarmat Image
Russian administrative culture is anniversary-centric. Ridiculously obsessed with all kinds of anniversaries. Let's open a video on the👏84th👏anniversary👏of👏 the👏Krasmash👏broadcasted on a regional TV channel "Yenisey" in 2016.

On 3:00 you see this

Image
How could a Russian nuclear weapons delivery systems producing plant acquire a Czech machine? Trough the KR Prom (КР Пром) proxy company apparently. It looks like TDZ Turn deleted information about this partnership from their website by now. But I screenshoted it on June 27, 2022 Image
Let's formulate our research hypothesis. It looks like the Russian KR Prom company acted as a proxy for TDZ Turn. Technological import for the Russian ICMB/SLBM producing plant seems to have been organised in the following way

TDZ Turn -> KR Prom -> Krasmash

Now let's check it Image
Let's check the KR Prom -> Krasmash connection first

Fortunately, we have a documental evidence. It is a protocol of the Krasmash procurement commission on purchase of spare parts for the metal-working machines from the KR Prom. January 29, 2018 Image
Now let's check customs data to establish the TDZ Turn -> KR Prom connection

Voila, we see shipments of carousel lathe machining centres, CNC lathes, components for fixing the metal-cutting instruments. Starting in 2013 and finishing in 2019. Well after the annexation of Crimea Image
Interestingly enough, on June 27, 2022 when I did screenshoting, TDZ Turn openly recognised that main consumers of its machine tools are in Middle Europe and in Russia

In Russia = in Russian military industry. It consumes almost all of the industrial equipment in the country Image
According to Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the largest Russian defence megaholding Rostec, 84% of machine tools in Russia are consumed by the military industry. There are few other large consumers in Russia

Russian industrial equipment import almost fully goes for the military needs Image
This short article published in 2017 on a seemingly crappy website became a starting point for this research. NB: seemingly crappy websites may hide tons of valuable & uncensored data.

We won't stop here ofc, we'll go all the way down the rabbit hole

rusletter.com/articles/germa… Image
Actually I may have been unfair to Russian KR Prom calling it simply a TDZ Turn proxy. They're better than that

There is a major "domestic" Russian producer of machine tools ГРС Урал. Let's look up its ownership structure:

49% KR Prom (Russia)
51% TOS VARNSDORF (Czechia) Image
Let's return back to our 👏 Krasmash👏 84th👏 anniversary👏 video👏 .

2:29 The hell is this? This is the Czech-produced TOS Varnsdorf WRD 150 Q floor type horizontal boring machine. It is most probably imported Image
And yet, Krasmash could've potentially "import substitute" this kind of equipment, switching to "domestic production". Because Czech TOS Varnsdorf localised its production on ГРС Урал. So these Czech machines count as Russian for legal and statistics purposes Image
This raises some interesting questions. Wasn't Bloomberg too optimistic when it assessed Russian import dependency in machine tools at 70%? What do we even mean by Russian machine tools production? Does Russia even have it?

I'll guess we'll find out next time. The end of🧵

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More from @kamilkazani

Sep 7
Broke: Russian "liberalism"

Bespoke: Nuclear War Advocacy Image
This case illustrates how undesirable factoids are being suppressed. For example:

Fact 1

When arrested, Safronov wasn't a journalist. He was a PR adviser for Dmitry Rogozin, CEO of defence mega corporation Roskosmos. Whose fall from power coincided (?) with the case of Safronov Image
Fact 2

In 2014 @isafronov cheered and advocated for the annexation of Crimea. See his discussion with Kashin about some Ukrainian officers in Crimea changing sides:

Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 6
Everyone of some prominence and relevance in Russia has a dossier with charges & evidence against them. Absolutely everyone. They can keep these files forever or take them off the shelf, when deemed necessary

Ergo, it's absolutely irrelevant when the supposed crimes happened...
Only a date when they decided to indict you with the crime matters. Indictment = they take your dossier off the shelf and charge you with "crimes" they have collected for years

Safronov works in Kommersant = no one cares

He joins Roskosmos = They take his dossier off the shelf
I'm honestly amazed by so many Russian commenters promoting absolutely delusionary interpretations of Russian politics

Serdyukov is fired, his team purged:

"OMG, it's a CORRUPTION SCANDAL!"
Read 6 tweets
Sep 6
Yesterday Ivan Safronov was sentenced to 22 years in jail. Russian liberal media describe him as a "journalist" picturing it as Kremlin's crackdown on political opposition. That's misinformation. Safronov *used* to be a journalist. Then he worked in Roskosmos as Rogozin's advisor
Indeed, for many years Safronov worked as a journalist, first in Kommersant, then in Vedomosti. In May 2020 though he was hired by the Roskosmos state corporation, as a PR advisor of its CEO Dmitry Rogozin Image
Roskosmos is a defense megaholding, a product of Putin's consolidation of the military industrial compex. Rosatom is doing nuclear warheads, KTRV - cruise missiles, Almaz-Antey - air defence, Rostec - well, everything. Roskosmos is producing ballistic missiles, including ICBMs Image
Read 18 tweets
Sep 5
Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" group fighting for Russia in Ukraine:

"I'm a Nazi, I'm a Nazi. I won't elaborate whether I'm a nationalist, a patriot or imperialist. I say directly: I'm a Nazi. I can raise my hand in Nazi salute"

(interview to Provsvirnin, Sputnik and Pogrom)
Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" group:

"When you are going to war, that's sexual desire, it's like wanting to fuck... When you are killing a piglet, you savour his wife becoming a widow, his family grieving , him coming back home in a coffin. You have erection, don't you?"
Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" is an interesting person. He used to be a fan of the football club Zenit under a nickname "Fritz". In 2011 he became famous after uploading a video with himself killing a puppy, cutting of its heads and then eating it (photos are googlable) Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 3
Now we associate Gorbachev with Perestroika, which in its turn is interpreted as nice Gorbachev being nice. In reality, in the beginning of his rule Gorbachev continued Andropov's Neo-Stalinist policies. But then the oil price dropped and didn't bounce back. Hence, Perestroika🧵 Image
Brezhnev's era is usually referred to as Застой, the Stagnation. If Khrushchev unironically aimed to build Communism, Brezhnev dropped any attempts to do so. High oil prices of the 1970s created illusion of prosperity, while in reality system was becoming less and less efficient Image
Khruchev saw Communism as a realistic goal. He even set a specific deadline - 1980. Brezhnev however, cut all the specific deadlines from the Party program. Future oriented paradigm (building Communism) died and the new, past-oriented one emerged. Worshipping the Great Victory Image
Read 27 tweets
Sep 2
See a declassified CIA report about the purchases for one single Soviet plant - KAMAZ truck producer. They aimed to buy the most modern Western equipment: from the foundries to the IBM computers. When the US imposed sanctions for Afghanistan invasion, they bought them in Europe
Well, the US embargo did pose *some* disruptive effect. But not for long: Soviets bypassed it through the Western Europe or Japan. The US could impose sanctions, yes. But their ability to enforce their allies to comply with them has been always very limited
Read 5 tweets

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