Yesterday Ivan Safronov was sentenced to 22 years in jail. Russian liberal media describe him as a "journalist" picturing it as Kremlin's crackdown on political opposition. That's misinformation. Safronov *used* to be a journalist. Then he worked in Roskosmos as Rogozin's advisor
Indeed, for many years Safronov worked as a journalist, first in Kommersant, then in Vedomosti. In May 2020 though he was hired by the Roskosmos state corporation, as a PR advisor of its CEO Dmitry Rogozin
Roskosmos is a defense megaholding, a product of Putin's consolidation of the military industrial compex. Rosatom is doing nuclear warheads, KTRV - cruise missiles, Almaz-Antey - air defence, Rostec - well, everything. Roskosmos is producing ballistic missiles, including ICBMs
May 2020 - Roskosmos CEO Rogozin hires Safronov
July 7, 2020 - Safronov is arrested for treason
Summer 2020 - Rogozin is interrogated as a witness
August 24, 2020 - Rogozin tells he won't fire Safronov until the verdict. Safronov is stilll his advisor
July 15, 2022 - Rogozin is fired from Roskosmos. Putin's adviser Peskov tells that "in a due time" they gonna find him a new job. Now it's September and they still haven't, apparently vedomosti.ru/politics/news/…
September 5, 2022 - Rogozin's advisor Safronov is sentenced to 22 years
Media describe Safronov as a "journalist". That's oversimplification at best, misinformation at woest. His last job was at the ballistic missiles producing megaholding Roskosmos. It is highly likely that prosecution of Safronov was an attack directed at CEO Rogozin
Rogozin was probably the biggest PRmaxer in the Russian military industry. That's overcompensation. Of all the top managers of the military industry he was probably the weakest, administrative weight-wise (Chemezov is the strongest). Now he's eaten and kicked out from the circle
Apparently Rogozin lost in the bulldog under the rug. He was stripped of his position as the CEO of Roskosmos and is not likely to return to a position of power anytime soon. I can't prove that they prosecuted and jailed Safronov to "drown" Rogozin. But it is highly likely
Now let's review Safronov himself. Social media are as usually a great source on the political stance and views. That's Safronov's tweet on the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014
Did he end up in Crimea during its annexation by Russia accidentally? Not quite
This Safronov is a witty guy, isn't he?
Just few days later, Ivan Safronov @isafronov called for the nuclear war as a response to the Western sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I think I am starting to get why Rogozin would hire him as a PR advisor
In July 2022 this chickenhawk who used to call for the nuclear war was hired by a major defence corporation Roskosmos, producing ballistic missiles. Very soon he (most likely) fell a victim to the fight between the big bosses, suffering due to his proximity to CEO Rogozin
Now you see Russian liberal opposition picturing Safronov as a "journalist" (he used to be once) who suffered for "doing his work" if not for political dissidence. Rather than because he chose the wrong big boss to work for - which is the most likely explanation of what happened
When you hear the news from Russia, be aware that they're filtered by the Moscow establishment which cares for their corporate interests and privilege more than anything else in this world. What you read is the corporate interest of a parasite class disguised as objective truth
Lamentations of "oppositionaries" about Darya Dugina's death surprised many. But it's not surprising at all. Darya Dugina is a fellow parasite from the Moscow upper class, belonging to the same social circles as them. Ofc they're gonna lament her. They see her as one of their own
Same with Safronov. He is of the same social class, of the same social circles. Thus Moscow establishment gonna picture him in the most favourable light possible, as an innocent victim, rather than as a collateral loss in the bulldog fight under the rug (which is the most likely)
Reading/listening to news from Russia, keep in mind that they have been selected, constructed and promoted by a narrow circle of Moscow establishment, who don't hesitate to use this leverage for advancing their corporate interest and guarding their corporate privilege. The end
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Watched Top Gun last night. A 🧵 on military-Hollywood relations. 1/
I knew it was all light and sound but I had to watch it, simply to stay with the discourse. Simply put, both critics and the lay, LOVE it. This is in sharp contrast to most blockbusters which are hated by elite critics. There is no class gap here. 2/
I was surprised to see an ad for the air force before the film. The film is a 2 hour commercial for the air force. Do we really need the pre-commercial? 3/
NEW from Afghanistan: We spent weeks talking to dozens of Taliban insiders, including Haqqani commanders, who said ongoing power struggles are splitting the movement and driving members to defect. With @margheritamvswsj.com/articles/talib…
“A lot of mujahedeen have left the Taliban. If they don’t listen to us, many low-level Taliban will fight against them,” a 28 yo former Haqqani commander told us.
The ban on girls' education is a lightning rod inside the Taliban, supported only by an ultra-conservative minority. But the splits run much deeper: alleged nepotism, lack of salaries, religion and feuds over power and the limited spoils of victory are all creating tension.
1: The US and China are seriously talking past each other. This is not just about Pelosi. The US thinks this is about Chinese coercion. The Chinese think this is about a drift from “one China” to "one China, one Taiwan." That disconnect will lead to a very unstable new baseline.
2: The US line, reflected in comments by Blinken, Sullivan, and Kirby is that everything is normal, "routine," consistent with precedent, nothing to see here, and that the principal issue here is that Beijing is throwing a tantrum over a nothingburger and should knock it off.
3: Beijing, meanwhile, has been signaling from Xi, Wang, and others for 2+ years that “the US has misperceived and miscalculated China’s strategic intent” (Xi), “we want a real one China policy, not a fake one China policy” (Wang), and so on. All this predates Pelosi’s trip.
A (very) basic explainer on some aspects of the proposed #visaban to prevent tourists from #Russia entering the #EU’s Schengen zone.
(There are some shortcuts but this is basically what you need to know on some more technical aspects - & I welcome corrections!)
1/
A #visaban must hit Type C Schengen Short Stay visas
- the most common type of visa that allows entry to & movement in the jointly controlled free(r) movement area & stay of up to 90 days in any 180 day period. It can be single/double/multi entry for tourism or business. /2
Because this visa allows movement between Schengen countries it is what is currently being used by Russian tourists entering Finland & Estonia (via their land borders) to then move on to other countries in the Schengen zone (by plane) to get round the flight ban from #Russia. /3
Everyone of some prominence and relevance in Russia has a dossier with charges & evidence against them. Absolutely everyone. They can keep these files forever or take them off the shelf, when deemed necessary
Ergo, it's absolutely irrelevant when the supposed crimes happened...
Only a date when they decided to indict you with the crime matters. Indictment = they take your dossier off the shelf and charge you with "crimes" they have collected for years
Safronov works in Kommersant = no one cares
He joins Roskosmos = They take his dossier off the shelf
I'm honestly amazed by so many Russian commenters promoting absolutely delusionary interpretations of Russian politics
Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" group fighting for Russia in Ukraine:
"I'm a Nazi, I'm a Nazi. I won't elaborate whether I'm a nationalist, a patriot or imperialist. I say directly: I'm a Nazi. I can raise my hand in Nazi salute"
(interview to Provsvirnin, Sputnik and Pogrom)
Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" group:
"When you are going to war, that's sexual desire, it's like wanting to fuck... When you are killing a piglet, you savour his wife becoming a widow, his family grieving , him coming back home in a coffin. You have erection, don't you?"
Milchakov, commander of "Rusich" is an interesting person. He used to be a fan of the football club Zenit under a nickname "Fritz". In 2011 he became famous after uploading a video with himself killing a puppy, cutting of its heads and then eating it (photos are googlable)
Now we associate Gorbachev with Perestroika, which in its turn is interpreted as nice Gorbachev being nice. In reality, in the beginning of his rule Gorbachev continued Andropov's Neo-Stalinist policies. But then the oil price dropped and didn't bounce back. Hence, Perestroika🧵
Brezhnev's era is usually referred to as Застой, the Stagnation. If Khrushchev unironically aimed to build Communism, Brezhnev dropped any attempts to do so. High oil prices of the 1970s created illusion of prosperity, while in reality system was becoming less and less efficient
Khruchev saw Communism as a realistic goal. He even set a specific deadline - 1980. Brezhnev however, cut all the specific deadlines from the Party program. Future oriented paradigm (building Communism) died and the new, past-oriented one emerged. Worshipping the Great Victory
See a declassified CIA report about the purchases for one single Soviet plant - KAMAZ truck producer. They aimed to buy the most modern Western equipment: from the foundries to the IBM computers. When the US imposed sanctions for Afghanistan invasion, they bought them in Europe
Well, the US embargo did pose *some* disruptive effect. But not for long: Soviets bypassed it through the Western Europe or Japan. The US could impose sanctions, yes. But their ability to enforce their allies to comply with them has been always very limited
"Radical tradition" in the Civil War context refers to levellers rather than to the parliamentary opposition
Consider Gerrard Winstanley. An appeal to the House of commons, 1649. Civil War was fought between the King who represented the Conqueror and the enslaved English people
Lords of manor are Norman, too, because this institution also originates in the Conquest. So now we need the mass redistribution of land to free it from all the Norman entanglements
I would say that upper classes are more culturalist and being Christian/ancient civilisation plays a big role for them. Working classes' perspective tends to be purely anthropological. They don't care about "ancient culture", "Christian" crap, they just see you as an ape
That's why Karabakh war was a huge thing for intelligentsia but not for masses. Intelligentsia saw it as a conflict of Muslim barbarians vs Christian civilisation and called for a crusade. Masses didn't give a damn though. Neither Armenians and Azeri were seen as fully human