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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
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Aug 18 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Yes, but that is very gentle mode of war from the Russian perspective. Those who decry happening as "madness" or call it "unimaginable" are either clueless (Westerners) or liars (Russians). Russian war in Ukraine is going on *extremely* soft mode. Because Ukraine has air defence
Soviet Union had the largest and the most comprehensive air defence system in the world. It was largely developed as a countermeasure against the U.S. airforce superiority. You have a large and great airforce? Fine, we'll build the large and great air defence. And they did Image
After the collapse of the USSR, the bulk of the Soviet military was inherited by Russia. But Ukraine also got a substantial part of it, including the air defence. It declined through the 1990-2000s and by 2014 Ukraine was effectively demilitarised. Its army was dysfunctional Image
After Crimea and the start of the war in Donbass, the army improved significantly, including the air defence. Old Soviet air defence system was reinforced by the modern digital equipment and software, specifically the PLC industrial computers
In 1991-2014 Russia fought in countries with zero or weak air defence. Thus it resorted to the indiscriminate use of airforce, bombing cities like Grozny or Aleppo to the ground. Neither Chechens, nor Syrians could do anything against the airforce turning their cities to the dust Image
Syrian example illustrates the Russian mode of war and its consequences. Syrian war was *way* worse than the Iraq or Afghanistan. Look at the population graphs for all three countries and you may notice a very particular trend for Syria. Russia enters the game Image
If Ukraine didn't have significant air defence, Russia could have resorted to the same indiscriminate use of the airforce as in Syria or Chechnya. But it can't. A thorough air defence system made the use of the airforce very risky and difficult. Russia will just lose its aviation Image
Russian war in Ukraine is unprecedentedly soft and gentle. Consider this. They are raising a Peski town with thermobaric artillery rather than with a bomber. Why? Ukraine has air defence. That's why Russia is so gentle and slow. It can't bomb everything to the dust as in Syria
To sum up:

1. Russian war in Ukraine isn't cruel. It's very gentle, because Ukraine has means of defence. Previous victims of Russia did not

2. Russian mode of war is pure evil

3. Russian public opinion preferred not to notice or condone that evil till they got hurt themselves
4. The strange softness of the Russian army in Ukraine results from Ukraine being armed. Therefore, arming Ukraine is the single best way to deescalate this conflict. The better is Ukraine armed, the more Russia will deescalate. At some point they'll try to back off
5. Russia is a large and strong military machine without *any* ethical or humanitarian concerns. In Syria they literally depopulated a large country. Russian public opinion ignores or endorses it. Ergo, Russia must be demilitarised to minimise the danger it poses to the world
6. Demilitarisation of Russia requires its breakup. Should Moscow keep control over its colonies, it will endure through the hard times and then rebuild its military again. The only way to prevent it is to allow the colonies to break away from under the power of Moscow
7. Russian Federation is the extreme anomaly. It is the last European colonial empire that still continues to exist. Some of these colonies are predominantly white, others are POC-populated. All of them however, should receive a chance for independence from the metropole. The end Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
12h
Scientific rationality is overrated, evolutionary rationality is underrated. If such behaviour is common, it suggests it is evolutionary stable = rational

Tribe needs mythology to unite it. And mythology must be dumbed down for the entire tribe to get it, otherwise it won't work
It is absolutely rational to believe in some dumbed down crap. Reality is incomprehensible in all of its complexity anyway. And when you start adding 1st nuance, 2nd nuance, 3rd nuance, it can't unite the tribe anymore. Working tribal mythologies are very dumb. Hence, rational
That's a common mechanism of social changes. When a party is small, its myth is nuanced, complicated. But once it expands, it *must* dumb it down to unite everyone. As a result, the old core (inner party) has a nuanced myth and the newcomers (outer party) have dumbed down version
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
13h
No, it's more like

"There is destructive energy in the air this month and it will manifest someway. So I must take preemptive action and trigger a crisis *of my choice*. All the bad energy gonna flow there and voila, it's all gone"

Very rational from the archaic perspective Image
That's very easy to understand. In some countries they trigger forest fires for this very reason. There's lots of dry wood in the forest, so we create a controllable fire artificially. Otherwise, we'd have to wait for the uncontrollable one, which is more dangerous Image
In other places they provoke the avalanches with special cannons for this very reason. There's *objectively* lots of snow on the mountains, so if we just let it lie there, it will go down in an uncontrollable avalanche. Creating a controllable one artificially is way better Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
14h
Here we have a problem:

Most analysts would dismiss a hypothesis that numerology plays a big role in Russian scheduling of key events (invasion, important political assassination, etc)

While it is almost certainly true.

Russia is run by state security. Who are not "rational"
Let me get it straight. There are plenty of absolutely "rational" (Western-style) people in Russian bureaucracy. They're smart, they're following the recent Western intellectual fashion, mimic the language, the conceptual framework

But they're not rulers. They're servants
Russia has high ranked officials who would easily communicate with people on the US campuses and fit in well. *These people do not make decisions*. They follow orders, that's it. When hearing an order they consider dumb/counterproductive/dangerous, they just bow and execute it
Read 11 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
15h
For high quality investigative journalism from Russia I strongly recommend following the Агентство (Agentstvo) media. They're not super big or super famous, and that's good. World famous media do not feel evolutionary pressure to do their homework. These guys do, and do it well Image
Their first material - on Shoygu was the work of art. Strongly recommended

proekt.media/portrait/serge…
This one may be even more interesting. On the Putin's mortality. What do we know of his health, of which doctors visit him and how often, which procedures he is taking (including baths from deer antlers), what and how is reported in media

proekt.media/investigation/…
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
20h
Some are asking, why should even care about Darya Dugina's assassination? Because:

1. It is almost certainly the FSB false flag operation
2. Most likely, it will be used as a pretext for strikes that had been already pre-scheduled for the Ukrainian Independence Day this Thursday
Once again. Strikes later this week are highly likely, they have must been prescheduled long ago. Most probably, on Thursday-Friday. It's quite probable that Putin wants to scale up and sacrificed Dugina to needs justify future strikes as counter-terrorist action or sth like that
Assuming this is true, why was Dugina chosen as a sacrificial lamb? Presidential plenipotentiary Schegolev's speech on her funerals gives some idea:

1. Alexander (and Darya) Dugina were nobody in the Russian system of power
2. But the West believed they were somebody

AMAZING Image
Read 13 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 22
Let's be honest, what Yeltsin did in 1991 certainly had an *element* of military coup, to say the least. Yeah, it's kinda nice he had crowds on his side. But the fact that a few army regiments and lots of KGB joined him didn't hurt either. Peaceful protests are hugely overrated
In fact, it was the coup element of 1991 that determined the face of the Russian army leadership till around 1996. Upstarts with no relevant experience, credentials or network heavily dominated the military command. Why? They just happened to switch to Yeltsin in August 1991
I see why media and academia tend to wildly exaggerate the power of peaceful protests. But honestly I'm sick of that BS. For a regime change to happen you need at least few regiments to switch sides. If that doesn't happen, regime not gonna change. Army always beats the "people" Image
Read 5 tweets

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