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These guys have a real “us” vs “them” mentality and it makes them vulnerable. The security risk is from “them” who are all bad guys, not “us” who are the good guys. They don’t seem to grasp that planning to commit violent felonies w/ 8 randos they met on Facebook is a stupid idea

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I had to number the sections in this paragraph, there’s just too much crazy. i.) secure meeting with the really eager new guy to discuss details of the felony conspiracy? Why not take notes while you’re at it!?!

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ii.) The strategic planning on display makes the underwear gnomes seem like Sun Tzu level masters. “First thing we do, we kidnap the governor, the it’s all over man, we win. I mean next we kill her, but you know, after the laying on of hands, we win.”

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iii.) the entire plan seems to be to kidnap and kill the governor. But mostly to kidnap... iv.) this gets less organised the more they plan. “Get the governor at her house, then... go somewhere and ... a trial!” Great thinking, what this murder needs is a group vote.

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v.) they don’t know where she lives so they’re going to ask a realtor. I guess they don’t have Google? And creating a trail of witnesses seems like a brilliant OPSEC move. And the detailed recon. This is really a bit over the top for a plan that is 2 sentences long.

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vim.) they need blueprints. To snatch the governor outside her home they need blueprints. Not a plan for what to do or a reason why snatching the governor is the correct action. Blueprints. And more witnesses, of course.

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nvim.) what this criminal conspiracy needs is more people. Given the amount of recruiting FOX is advocating I can’t help thinking he’s maybe just lonely? Dude, there’s better ways to expand your social circle than with ppl who’ll commit crimes with Facebook friends.

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Encryption protects against outsiders. Covert human sources? Not so much

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After much deliberation FOX has decided to go with ships original plan of kidnapping the governor... somewhere... for some reason, to some end. Incidentally, this is the safest conspiracy session FOX has held. OPSEC++ And so of course he posts about it on Facebook.

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One of the guys wises up and doesn’t want to talk in the open about crimes. They decide to have a recorded phone call and crimes instead. FOX is back to the movie inspired reconnaissance phase of his kidnap plan. Now it’s time for “someone” to go do it.

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Cont. but HARRIS figured if you’re looking at her house that’s effectively the same thing as murder, so just commit murder instead. What world do these guys inhabit that a bunch of Facebook randos can keep the murderer’s identity secret? They post everything on Facebook ffs!

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Cont. FOX is on his shit about kidnapping, but now he’s also on an arson kick. Will he need a plumber to get blueprints for the boat? FRANKS is down with arson, kidnapping, murder, whatever “so long as it’s well planned.” ...I got some bad news for you, bro

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Heranimos Swingle, Padded Gambeson Man

The media could not be played.

Reload

From

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Using open codes is almost never a good idea. Years ago I wrote a guide on using code phrases, grugq.github.io/blog/2013/12/2 The guys who can’t make black powder blow up with a fuse are considering a large scale bombing operation. This seems more aspirational than operational

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On the terrorists open codes: they are consistent and have internal logic, which is good. Still, I can’t help but wonder how much further they would have gotten if they’d read the cartoon guide to smoking weed and stay out of jail. Stoners are better at security than these guys.

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i.) The group figures out that the most pressing security issue is that one of them is working for the Feds. They figure that the infiltration will involve a fake name, and the Feds can’t produce false identity documents. This are false assumptions about how informers work.

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i.cont.) In all honesty these guys would have better luck pursuing “if you’re an undercover cop you have to tell me.” At least this would be a direct interrogation of potential informants, not just a check on whether they’re unable to make a fake drivers license.

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ii.) These guys are really into performative terrorism. They need to conduct surveillance, so one of them goes out and spends 4 grand on a helmet (???) and night vision goggles. Which he then brags about. “Make your terrorism reconnaissance pop with the right accessories.”

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ii.cont.) This entire farce really seems like a sort of LARP terrorism with real guns. They’re going out to the woods, they’re hanging out and fantasising about their plans, they’re letting anyone join in, they’re buying new equipment to show off at the next meet...

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iii.) Security for these guys is ritualistic and performative. They believe that they are protected because they use encrypted messengers. When they feel scared they perform the “get a new encrypted messenger totem” ritual to assuage their fears.

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iii.cont.) If they thought about the problem for even a second they would realise that changing the communications tool they use to talk with an FBI informant will not, in fact, protect them from an FBI informant. This is the “us” vs. “them” thinking again.

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iii.cont.) I like to think the FBI aren’t literally laughing their asses off when they type these up, but then I read lines like “Because the group still included CHS-2, the FBI has maintained the ability to consensually monitor the chat communications.”

The media could not be played.

Reload

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Things are moving forward with the plan. The group start to conduct surveillance on the vacation house. This involves looking for the address on Google Maps, but failing, then phoning a friend for help. The friend helpfully sends StreetView images.

They take pictures and film the house while slow rolling through the neighbourhood. This sort of pre-operational surveillance is actually one of the most vulnerable phases in a terrorist plot. See the work of

@stick631

on why this is the ideal time to detect a threat.

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There are some very bizarre events for real terrorists, but they make total sense if you think of these guys as performative. They are doing what they think “operators” do. They’re playing “Spec Ops” but with real guns, and against a middle aged woman living in a remote house.

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I particularly like that they find a reason to organise a boat outing as well.

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StreetView is actually sufficient surveillance for a street grab or shooting someone at home. They should be investing their time and resources into planning a getaway. Real terrorists (and criminals) plan the escape first, then see if they can fit the action to the plan

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