Fair enough. While Crimea had separatist attitiudes, Donbass did not. In fact, it was a major power center of pre-2014 Ukraine. While Russia is picturing Ukrainian political system as dominance of Galicia, picturing it as Donetsk & Dnipro dominance may be more factually accurate
I would argue that the actual political influence of the West Ukrainian interest groups on Kyiv politics had been exaggerated. While the influence of interest groups from the large industrial cities of the South East: especially Dnipro and Donetsk had been vastly underrated
In 2014 Donetsk interest group lost massively. They chose to welcome the Russian involvement. A dog was losing in a fight and called for the wolves to help. As a result, the Donetsk group not only lost everything but the Donbass itself turned into the country of depopulated ruins
Azovstal where the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol took their last stand was the major asset of Rinat Akhmetov. The richest businessman of Donetsk, who was the force standing behind Yanukovich and who was a big loser of the 2014 Maidan
There is a strong reason to believe that the "Owner of Donetsk" as he was styled helped the Donetsk People's Republic on its very early stages, securing the smooth switching of allegiance by the local police and state security. But then Russia took direct control, kicking him out
When discussing the "separatism" of Donetsk we miss the elephant in the room: the massive switching of colours by the local state security and the cops. Which was massive. It was probably orchestrated by the businessmen of the Donetsk interest group who lost during the Maidan
Consider the following. All of the "heroes of the Russian spring", separatist commanders in Donetsk were later cleansed by Russia. Kremlin killed every single of them, even those who left to Russia. Yes, they were kinda useful but too chaotic and unruly from Kremlin's perspective
Only two early DPR commanders are still alive: Strelkov and Khodakovsky. Two things in common between them:
1. They're both alive. Russians did not kill them like the rest 2. They're both from the state security. Strelkov from the FSB, Khodakovsky from the SBU
Yeah, the only Donbass separatist commander of Ukrainian origin the Russians did not kill used to be a career officer of the Ukrainian state security. From the FSB perspective it makes him socially adjacent. He will be spared and allowed to command, he is kinda one of us
The elephant in the room is that the institutional gap between Russian and Ukraine before 2014 was not great. It was basically the same military industrial complex. Dnipro played the key role in Russian missiles production, Zporizhya in engines, Mykolaiv in shipbuilding
Russian army and state security worked very closely with the Ukrainian ones and in a sense comprised one organism. It was in 2014 when these ties were finally broken. Some would argue that the USSR fall in 1991. I would argue that the Soviet Union died for real only in 2014
The end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Маленький тред, почему плешивый так рвётся захватить Украину...👇
Украина занимает...
1-е место в Европе по разведанным извлекаемым запасам урановых
руд;
2-е место в Европе, 10-е место в мире по запасам титановых руд;
2-е место в мире по разведанным запасам марганцевых руд (2,3 млрд тонн или 12% от мировых запасов);
👇
2-е место в мире по запасам железных руд (30 млрд.т)
2-е место в Европе по запасам ртутных руд
3-е место в Европе (13-е в мире) по запасам сланцевого газа (22 трлн м.куб)
4-е место в мире по совокупной стоимости природных ресурсов
7-е место в мире по запасам угля (33,9 млрд.т)👇
NEW from Afghanistan: We spent weeks talking to dozens of Taliban insiders, including Haqqani commanders, who said ongoing power struggles are splitting the movement and driving members to defect. With @margheritamvswsj.com/articles/talib…
“A lot of mujahedeen have left the Taliban. If they don’t listen to us, many low-level Taliban will fight against them,” a 28 yo former Haqqani commander told us.
The ban on girls' education is a lightning rod inside the Taliban, supported only by an ultra-conservative minority. But the splits run much deeper: alleged nepotism, lack of salaries, religion and feuds over power and the limited spoils of victory are all creating tension.
- What is long, green and smells with sausage?
- Moscow-Tver train
Why? Well, under the USSR provincials had to go shopping to Moscow. Their shops had no food, often very literally. Today we'll learn an expression "supply category"🧵
Under the centrally planned economy it was the state which supplied food to the localities. It would assign each city one of four "supply categories" determining how much food there will be on shelves. Moscow was supplied far better than anyone while cities like Tver - horribly
Provincial Soviet cities of the lower supply categories might have no food on the shelves at all. Sometimes very literally. Sometimes they would have only the scraps from the table of the higher status city: like some algae, or the disgusting paste "Ocean"
My thoughts on the @amnesty report on #Ukraine. These are my personal thoughts and not affiliated with any of the orgs I work for. They got the law wrong. Protocol 1 states militaries shall to the maximum extent feasible AVOID locating military objects near populated areas 1/
Ukraine can place forces in areas they are defending - especially in #urbanwarfare. There is no requirement to stand shoulder to shoulder in a field - this isn’t the 19th century. Ukraine still has an OBLIGATION to protect civilians - but they are taking steps to do so like 2/
helping civilians relocate. The info environment is complex but when I train Ukrainian #WarCrimes teams I always tell them they must investigate alleged violations of ALL parties to the conflict. 3/
1. Well, Russia already did mass mobilisation in Donbass. It is the Ukrainian citizens that are the main Russian cannon fodder. I have no idea why this is not discussed more often
2. Mass mobilisation in Russia would be a stupid decision
That's the context for the @amnesty argument about civilians being put on the harm's way by the Ukrainian defence. Once a Donbass city fells to Russia, males 18-60 will be press-ganged to the army and then recycled in the frontal attacks on the Ukrainian positions. That's reality
Scenario under which civilians won't suffer just does not exist. From the Russian perspective population of the conquered territory is just the cheap cannon fodder which they send to frontal attacks with WWII weapon. Entire male population of Donbass is being recycled by Russia
1. I think security concerns of Finland and even more so, Baltics, are legitimate. Let's be honest, Russia never really recognised independence of the latter. Furthermore, Baltic nations are very much dehumanised in the Russian public discourse
This sermon may be very illustrative. "Misfortunate" Ukraine is described more as a misled little sister who must be disciplined, reformed and put back in line. The priest's stance on Baltics is much harsher:
"What happens with Baltics, you can imagine yourself" tells he
2. Saying all of this, I see a certain contradiction between the moral logic and the pragmatic logic in the visa/residence permit policy. I also see a strong bias towards the former
Many see NGOs as a bunch of ultra-privileged Westerners focused on satisfying their ego without any regard for the cost they inflict on the people they're supposed to "help". This view is unfair. It's too generalising. But the @amnesty report is playing to the worst stereotypes🧵
To start with, an argument about "Ukrainian forces putting civilians in harm’s way" by defending ignores the objective reality. Which is: it's the Ukrainian retreat that is putting civilians in harm's way. On the Russian occupied territory they'll be subject to unhinged violence
It is the Ukrainian retreat that made the worst atrocities of this war possible. Once the Ukrainian army retreats, civilians are at the mercy of the Russian military & the paramilitary. No wonder that they become victims of indiscriminate violence
Kremlin has a problem. Since it didn't declare war, it can't jail the military who just refuse to go to fight to Ukraine. But senior officers can add bad remarks to their personal files. Like this:
"Inclined towards alcohol and drug abuse, towards theft and anal orgies"
Last remark about "anal orgies" is very illustrative. It's not so much about homophobia as a Westerner could presume as about the prison culture. Prison culture permeates society, especially the army, police and state security *far* deeper than foreigners would believe
Prison has very complex sexual code. First and most importantly, *active* homosexualism is okay. It's not even perceived as homosexualism, but as a way to reinforce the social hierarchy. Passive role though is shameful and is reserved for the non-touchable, the "cocks" (петухи)
"Destroyed?" You must be joking. It reinforced Skuratov. President introduced the bill to fire the General Attorney to the Parliament thrice and the Upper House (governors basically) rejected it three times. Skuratov became the Hill-to-die-on for the regional barons
The sauna videotape with escorts made Skuratov a close to sainthood person in the eyes of regional barons. Like if a person is occupying the post of General Attorney of the Russian Federation, he's probably doing lots of crimes. And Kremlin would publish them, if he committed any
The fact that they come up with such crap as the sauna videotape shows he's 100% clean. And a 100% clean official would be fired because he's exposing corruption of Yeltsin's family (which barons wanted to drown and make a scapegoat for all the ills of the country)
When Kremlin tried to destroy Nemtsov's reputation by publishing his affairs that was so bad move, so lacking the basic awareness of a culture it was operating in, that I unironically suspect it was the idea of American consultants on Putin's service
"Publish all his affairs with tons of married and unmarried women and he's done" sounds very plausible to someone from the inner America. It had the opposite effect in Russia. Hooking up with so many women while holding *no power*? That was basically pro-Nemtsov propaganda
Paradoxically it may sound, the only time Russia got (somewhat) close to the American sexual politics culture was in the late USSR. Under Brezhnev, the private life of the Party members indeed became a public matter, somewhat resembling of America