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Kamil Galeev

Jun 22

How can Putin make stuff?

Chinese-Russian alignment is much like Schroedinger's cat. It's alive and dead at the same time. Let me illustrate this on example of the Russian military industry, which contrary to the popular opinion is *not* backed by China. It's backed by Europe🧵

Consider this great article by Vershinin. The West largely lost its industrial warfare capabilities, but Russia did not. Its military strategy is based on capacities to produce lots of missiles and shells. Way more than the US is able to produce

rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Russian missile and artillery centric strategy is possible only due to the superior capacity to mass production. Russia can afford firing so many missiles and shells, because it produces many of them, way more than the US can make

But how is that possible?

Read 58 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jun 21

Brat-2 and the Russian state cult

The CEO of Russian aerospace (& missiles producing) state company Roskosmos Rogozin published this video in his telegram channel РОГОZИН. It may look weird for foreigners but Russians understand this allusion very well (not a thread)

In his video Rogozin is basically threatening the outer world with the nuclear war, while reading some silly childish sounding poem. For context let's have a look on another video, also from his Telegram channel t.me/rogozin_do. Russian fighters are reading the same poem

Pretty much every modern Russian can easily understand the reference. It is a poem from the Brat-2 movie, where Russian mafia members are departing to the US to take revenge against an American criminal boss

Read 16 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jun 19

Some believe that the current escalation between Russia and the West is just a personal decision of Putin. Not quite. Watch this Yeltsin's speech in Beijing in 1999 before meeting Li Peng. Three weeks later Yeltsin abdicated, leaving the PM Putin as the acting President of Russia

Many in Russia presumed that "good" Yeltsin made a horrible mistake, accidentally appointing "bad" Putin as his successor. I don't believe that. Three last Yeltsin's PMs were all career intelligence officers. He was actively looking for such an heir and was vetting the candidates

Putin's track was kinda typical. Consider his predecessor Stepashin. The FSB Chief. Then Minister for Internal Affairs under Kirienko. Then the Prime Minister. It's a track very similar to Putin's except in the end the Tsar made a different choice. Poor Stepashin (on the right)

Read 21 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jun 17

Not wrong, but I'd reframe it. Yep, Russia is enforcing the "draconian capital controls". But "control" can't be a goal, it's only an instrument. For what?

Since the start of the war, Russian gov has been building the *two contour economy*. Let's discuss it briefly (not a 🧵)

https://twitter.com/TradeandMoney/status/1537684480806248448

When discussing the capital controls it's important to understand a broader sociopolitical structure of a country. Russian export revenue is primarily the raw materials export revenue. And thus the raw materials *exporters'* revenue. It's the revenue of few gigantic corporations

For comparison: take a glance at the Turkey's export structure for the same year (2017). The Turkish export is not just more complex, it's also way more diverse. The bulk of it is comprised by small and microscopic exporters. Who are more difficult to control than few giant corps

Read 7 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jun 15

What's happening with Russian economy?

Dynamics of Russian economy have been quite counterintuitive. Many, including myself expected the quick crash of the Russian currency. Indeed, usd/rub exchange rate initially skyrocketed. But since March 10 ruble started growing quickly🧵

One could assume that the ruble price somehow correlated with Russian military successes. Indeed, Russians were advancing quickly. And still, less quickly than almost everyone had expected. Plus subsequent Russian retreat from the north in early April didn't stop the ruble rise

Much better and more obvious explanation would be: the price of the ruble dependent primarily on the trade balance rather than with what was happening on the Ukrainian battlefields. Strong ruble is a result of the trade surplus. And the Russian trade surplus skyrocketed in 2022

Read 45 tweets

Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Jun 14

I generally agree, but I would add some nuances. For example, in my experience a major difference between Russians and Americans in is that Americans make so little difference between public and private spheres ethics-wise, whereas for Russians this difference is nearly absolute

https://twitter.com/noampomsky/status/1536393168295321600

As a general rule it is how you act in your private sphere that defines whether you are a good or bad person. How you act in public sphere is far less important. Also "honesty" would mean honesty in private rather than in public sphere. In private talk, not in public speech

After college I worked in a government organisation for a couple of months. My boss would sometimes walk into a cabinet where three of us were working to talk or give a monologue. Like: "How I came to the oppositional political views". That's private talk. It can be very honest

Read 10 tweets

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