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Jun 17 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Not wrong, but I'd reframe it. Yep, Russia is enforcing the "draconian capital controls". But "control" can't be a goal, it's only an instrument. For what?

Since the start of the war, Russian gov has been building the *two contour economy*. Let's discuss it briefly (not a 🧵)
When discussing the capital controls it's important to understand a broader sociopolitical structure of a country. Russian export revenue is primarily the raw materials export revenue. And thus the raw materials *exporters'* revenue. It's the revenue of few gigantic corporations
For comparison: take a glance at the Turkey's export structure for the same year (2017). The Turkish export is not just more complex, it's also way more diverse. The bulk of it is comprised by small and microscopic exporters. Who are more difficult to control than few giant corps
This is the major difference between the Putin's and the Erdogan's regime which is overlooked so often. Irrespective of their personalities or agenda, Turkey has tons of small and tiny exporters while Russia does not

Ergo. Turkey has tons of independent fortunes. Russia does not
Let's visualise Russian dominance hierarchy. It negatively correlates with complexity. The simpler* an industry is, the more powerful (&mafia like) interest group takes over it. Kremlin's control over oil & gas is direct and total

* takes more time to destroy with bad management
Now let's look at the Russian exports. The bulk of the export revenue is earned by few gigantic raw materials exporting corps who are controlled by the most powerful interest groups directly subordinate to Kremlin

There's nearly zero independent fortunes. Kremlin controls all
All for now, I'll elaborate another time

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 19
Some believe that the current escalation between Russia and the West is just a personal decision of Putin. Not quite. Watch this Yeltsin's speech in Beijing in 1999 before meeting Li Peng. Three weeks later Yeltsin abdicated, leaving the PM Putin as the acting President of Russia
Many in Russia presumed that "good" Yeltsin made a horrible mistake, accidentally appointing "bad" Putin as his successor. I don't believe that. Three last Yeltsin's PMs were all career intelligence officers. He was actively looking for such an heir and was vetting the candidates Image
Putin's track was kinda typical. Consider his predecessor Stepashin. The FSB Chief. Then Minister for Internal Affairs under Kirienko. Then the Prime Minister. It's a track very similar to Putin's except in the end the Tsar made a different choice. Poor Stepashin (on the right) Image
Read 21 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 15
What's happening with Russian economy?

Dynamics of Russian economy have been quite counterintuitive. Many, including myself expected the quick crash of the Russian currency. Indeed, usd/rub exchange rate initially skyrocketed. But since March 10 ruble started growing quickly🧵 Image
One could assume that the ruble price somehow correlated with Russian military successes. Indeed, Russians were advancing quickly. And still, less quickly than almost everyone had expected. Plus subsequent Russian retreat from the north in early April didn't stop the ruble rise
Much better and more obvious explanation would be: the price of the ruble dependent primarily on the trade balance rather than with what was happening on the Ukrainian battlefields. Strong ruble is a result of the trade surplus. And the Russian trade surplus skyrocketed in 2022 Image
Read 45 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 14
I generally agree, but I would add some nuances. For example, in my experience a major difference between Russians and Americans in is that Americans make so little difference between public and private spheres ethics-wise, whereas for Russians this difference is nearly absolute
As a general rule it is how you act in your private sphere that defines whether you are a good or bad person. How you act in public sphere is far less important. Also "honesty" would mean honesty in private rather than in public sphere. In private talk, not in public speech
After college I worked in a government organisation for a couple of months. My boss would sometimes walk into a cabinet where three of us were working to talk or give a monologue. Like: "How I came to the oppositional political views". That's private talk. It can be very honest
Read 10 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 13
Counterpoint: Western unity is a myth and might have never existed in the first place. For example, during the Cold War, West Germany was not only the major trade partner of the USSR, but also a proxy for the Soviet technological import bypassing the American trade restrictions🧵
That's not some kind of secret knowledge. The narrative presented below will be fully based on a single book. "N. Krotov. The history of Soviet and Russian Foreign Banks, Volume 1". It is a collection of memories of Soviet bank officials commissioned by the Russian VTB Bank (ВТБ)
Consider the memories of S.M. Bochkarev who was the General Commissioner of the Ost-West Handelsbank in 1980-1985, Instructor of the Economic Department of the Central Committee of the Soviet Communist Party in 1987-1988, and the Chairman of the Ost-West Handelsbank in 1988-1993
Read 21 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 12
A great comment that sums up what is wrong with modern academia. Apparently Professor Radchenko lives in a social bubble where "Brat" movies were viewed just as ironically as the "Pulp Fiction". I am afraid he cannot comprehend that most of the audience watched them unironically
Hard to swallow pill:

A (seemingly) unsophisticated criminal saga could become and indeed has become an integral part of the Russian state mythos. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 for example was widely viewed in the context of Brat-2 movie and described with its language
A hypothesis

Much of the poverty of the modern academia when it comes to studying other sentient and intelligent beings largely derives from:

1) personal arrogance and social prejudices of so many scholars
2) flawed system of incentives within academia itself
Read 10 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 11
You can't really "study" a culture. You can only verstehen it. And in order to verstehen, you need to live into it. The rapid escalation of Z-war hardly came as a surprise to anyone who lived in the context of Russian culture. Watch this fragment from a super popular movie Brat-2
Aleksei Balabanov may be the most talented and the culturally influential film director of the post-Soviet Russia. Some even argue that he created the post-Soviet Russian culture. That may be an overstatement but the absolutely iconic status of his movies is hard to deny Image
Most of Balabanov's fame and influence is based on just two movies: Brat and Brat-2 covering fictional mafia wars of the Russian mafia. The first movie is taking place in Russia (St Petersburg), in the second movie they make a work trip to America ImageImage
Read 10 tweets

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