The richer the Russians are, the more they support the war in Ukraine. At least that's a result of a poll by the Russian field sociological agency presented in this RBK infographics. We see a clear correlation between the level of income and the support of the war till victory
The poorest who don't have enough money to put food on the table, have the lowest level of the war support. Meanwhile the richest, who self report that they can afford whatever they want, overwhelmingly support waging the war in Ukraine till the final victory
I very much recommend to meditate over this poll in order to understand Russia better. First, it's usually useless to ask direct questions. Like "how much do you earn?". You'll get dishonest answers. Much better if you ask, "what can you afford?". You'll get a more frank response
Second, it reflects the social reality of Russia. And the reality is: it's buried under the loan. The poorest, the smaller towns, the countryside are doing the worst. Provincials rely on the "microcredits" taken under the insane interest rates. The upper limit is 1% *per day*
You can get indications of mass poverty in a town judging on the number of микрокредиты advertisements. It means:
1. People are doing like really bad. Otherwise they wouldn't literally sell themselves to the debt slavery 2. They have no access to the better financial instruments
It's quite common that you have no realistic chance of escaping the microloans trap. Some choose death. Reportedly, Ural factories have a slangish expression for a workplace suicide: "выйти из кредитов". Like if you jump into a furnace, you "get out of the loans"
A workplace suicide can play a role of a social safety net. If the family doesn't ask too much and agrees to a reasonable contribution of let's say 300-400 000 rubles, they'll surely get it. Some of the workplace suicides are scheduled, so the compensation fund doesn't dry out
That's why managers don't advertise their "public spending" to their own workers. It's quite common that an industrial company maintains an Olympic level ice skate palace, while paying the best of its workers up to 50 000 rubles maximum. They'll keep quite about the palace
Why would managers pay for the gargantuan sport facilities when their workers schedule suicides to escape the microloan trap? Well, the management of a plant has no connection at all with their workers. They're almost always professional managers sent from Moscow
While 50 000 rubles a months is viewed as a great salary for a worker, a million dollars a year salary is a very low for a manager. Indeed, a manager gonna have another expense level. He doesn't live in Yekaterinburg or Chelyabinsk. He works there Monday to Friday, that's it
Where does a manager live? That's a good question. Most likely he's in the process of gradual relocation. Relocation where? To the core of the world-system of course. If he's not doing that great, his wife and small children live in Moscow. But his adult kids live in Europe ofc
It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that the bulk of Russian managerial class are in the process of relocation to Europe. Once you can pay for it, you send your kids to a British, French or Swiss public school, then university. That's the first stage of the relocation
When you become more successful, you transfer your wife and minor kids to Europe, too. Of course you'll need to buy there real estate, get proper papers etc. The patriarch of a family will be visiting them wherever he can. But he still has to return into the god-forsaken Urals
You'll understand the disastrous situation of the Russian province, if you consider that it's run by hunter-gatherers. The patriarch of a family, the hunter gatherer may roam the Urals or Siberia. But he doesn't live there. He is only hunting and gathering
That's what a Russian expression "Varyag" means. It means Moscow never ever appoints a local to a truly serious position. It will purposefully appoint an outsider. This outsider will hunt in the region. But he doesn't place his cave there. He places them in Moscow and in Europe
That's true about pretty much every big federal structure, be it the government or the "private" sector (in Russia there're no large scale "private" companies). Gigantic plants of the Urals are run by the hunter gatherers sent from Moscow and in the process of relocation westward
At this point most regional administrations are also run by the hunter gatherers. A dad leads a department in a regional ministry. His wife and small kid live in Moscow where he flies weekly. His adult kid is studying in a posh British university of course. That's very typical
Ok, so hunter gatherers who run most of the Russian province, be it the government or the "private" sector, pump out the money from the said province to send it to Europe. That's understandable. But why do they pay for those obnoxious Ice Skating Palaces? To please Moscow
The province is disenfranchised. It has no agency, no saying, no influence on anything, including on how and by whom it is run. Therefore, the opinion of the locals has zero value. Meanwhile, the opinion of Kremlin is super important, because it allows you to keep your position
Varyags who rule Russian regions or companies act the following way. For the time being they should please Kremlin, because it allows them to keep accumulating resources for the relocation. Once they relocate however, they'll either keep low profile or turn liberal
Once you relocated successfully, there is no reason to actively and openly side with Kremlin anymore. You pleased Kremlin when you depended on Kremlin, but now you don't. So now you should please those around you in order to legitimise your presence in the new motherland
Paradoxically, some of the most vocal opponents of Kremlin in the West are often just the successful hunter gatherers. They earned their cash in Russia and relocated to Europe. The system of incentives changed and their agenda changed accordingly
A rule of thumb. A Russian money bag living in Europe is quite likely to be either a hunter gatherer or a kid of a hunter gatherer. They'll tell whatever those whom they perceive as their new masters want to hear. There are some exceptions like in the tech sector, but not many
The current system in Russia is absolutely rotten. It can't be changed by overthrowing a bad tsar to put a good tsar on his place. To the contrary, it can be improved only by systematically enfranchising the people and allowing them to decide their own fate on a small scale level
All the proposals to reform Russia without radically decentralising it are futile, even if well-intentioned. The political and economic structure of Russia should be scaled down radically so that its population can be enfranchised and liberated from the hunter gatherers
Either democratisation or liberalisation are unimaginable without the decentralisation. I think nobody made this case more succinctly or eloquently than De Tocqueville. End of thread
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This is a brief guide for selected threads. It will include materials on the current war and briefs useful for prognosing the future of the region once the war is over 🧵
TL;DR Russian army is overrated, Ukrainian army underrated. Putin expected Ukrainians to surrender. Thus he sent only one echelon of troops, that's not a proper Blitzkrieg. He didn't expect any resistance and thus failed
TL;DR Ukraine is waging the info war controlling the supply of *accurate* data. Meanwhile Russian efforts focus on portraying Putin as alpha. But that's a psyop to break resistance. In fact he's timid, risk averse, ignore the psyop
First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions🧵
Maps of Russian Federal News Agency show a massive retreat. Apparently, Russia abandoned its initial plans to capture Kyiv and take control of Ukraine. Thus political goals of Z-operation can't be achieved. Regime change and (partial?) annexation of Ukraine are not gonna happen
What is even more interesting, the tone of description has changed . As you see, until April 2 they had been posting maps of "successes (успехи) of the Special Operation". Since April 2 - of its "execution" (проведение). Indeed, this rapid retreat doesn't allow to claim success
Putin announced his decision to stop further assaults on Azovstal: the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in Mariupol. Siege of Mariupol started on Feb 25, by March 3 the city was completely surrounded. Two months later its defenders still stand their ground🧵
Mariupol is a city on the Azove Sea shore. It is located about 50 km from the Russian border (grey). Since the start of the war 2014, it has been a frontline city. No wonder that with the full-scale Z-invasion it was surrounded almost immediately and now is in deep Russian rear
Mariupol was founded by the Crimean Christians deported by Russia in 1770s. Deportation of Christians from Crimea received surprisingly little international coverage. So let's discuss it. Until XVIII century Muslim Tatar Crimean Khanate was a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire
May 9, the Victory Day is a crucial symbolic date. We should expect the Victory Parade and Putin's speech to the nation on that day. What is he gonna say? Many are pondering whether he will:
1. Declare war on Ukraine 2. Declare mass mobilisation in Russia
Let's discuss both🧵
Let's start with the question - why Putin didn't declare the war on Ukraine yet? Well, probably because he didn't expect any serious resistance. Kremlin planned for another Czechoslovakia 1968 and was very much surprised it didn't happen. Hence the "Special Operation" terminology
Planning for another pacification of an East European satellite state, Moscow unexpectedly got into a major war it didn't prepare for. Since they didn't prepare for a war, they declared neither a war, nor a martial law. Which had major consequences for the course of this war
The inaction of China reportedly deeply disappointed the Russian elites. That's understandable. Many expected that China would exploit the chaos in Europe seeing it as a chance to conquer Taiwan. Still, they didn't invade. Why?🧵
Throughout its history China suffered from the uncountable number of civil wars and inner conflicts. Naturally, some of them could trigger the Chinese expansion rather than hamper it, transition from Ming to Qing being probably one of the most vivid examples
With the victorious Qing army marching south, the last Ming loyalists had little choice but to escape. A fraction led by a Ming loyalist and a pirate admiral Koxinga chose to evacuate their base from the mainland. The Dutch-controlled Taiwan (Formosa) looked as an obvious choice
The defence of Mariupol seems to be unprecedented in the recent military history. Some pro-Russian pundits claimed that defenders were "hiding" in the catacombs of the Azovstal. That's factually wrong. They repeatedly counterattacked ambushing Russian soldiers on the city streets
Mariupol is a key industrial center located almost on the Russian border. It was besieged on the very first day of the war and completely surrounded by the early March. Still, its defenders continued resisting till the late May in the deep rear of Russian forces
Defenders of Mariupol achieved two objectives. First of all, they deflected the Russian attention. Azovstal becoming an Alcazar-like symbol, Russians had to keep on attacking the plant which remained in their rear instead of just pushing forward. That helped Ukraine to buy time
Wars are fought for the memes. And the Russian invasion gives us a classic example of a meme war. Consider this photo from a captured city with plaques changed from the Ukrainian "Марiуполь" to Russian "Мариуполь". It's about extirpating wrong memes and propagating right ones
Yeah, war is multidimensional. Those actors who launch it have various motivations. Some do it for cash, some for career, some for the sake of the personal vendetta. Some want to change (or maintain) the current power balance at home. The war is a tool for domestic policy-making
Some powerful actors interpret the war in non-meme terms. Consider this article by Vladislav Surkov actualcomment.ru/tumannoe-budus… published on February 15, 2022, just few days before Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border. It's all about geopolitics, nothing about memes
That's Mikhail Khodaryonok. Out of all people in the room he is the most sober one. Why? Well, may be because he's the only one with the substantial military experience. He's a career officer of the air defence who turned to a pundit career only after retirement (not a thread)
Khodaryonok used to be a senior operative officer in the Russian General Staff. Most Russian pundits judged the military capacity of the Russian army based on official propaganda. Khodaryonok - on his lived experience. Now wonder he is way more pessimistic about the war
Khodaryonok published a pessimistic prognosis about the Russian invasion of Ukraine back on February 3, long before it started. Many pundits expected a quick Russian victory. But the one who actually worked in the Russian General Staff didn't believe in it nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02…
On April 20, Russian MP from the Liberal-Democratic Party Sergey Leonov suggested forcing the Ukrainian POWs to donate their blood.
His exact framing is very interesting:
"There is an offer for the Ukrainian POWs to become the compulsory (в обязательном порядке) blood donours"
It's quite possible that the Liberal Democratic Party MPs are disoriented after the death of their leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky and try to keep relevance with the face of their party gone. Many perceived Zhirinovsky as "clown". And yet, Putin personally attended his funerals
Pretty much all of the Russian leadership attended his funerals. Putin, Medvedev, Kirienko, Shoigu, Naryshkin, etc. And yet, did you notice the difference between Putin and others? When Medvedev or Naryshkin approaches the body, the honorary guards are standing near the coffin
Invasion of Ukraine revolutionised the Russian symbolics introducing a new, previously unknown symbol Z. What does Z even mean? Neither Russians, nor foreigners have any idea. It is clearly a forced meme. And I have a guess on who forced it🧵
The choice of Z-letter looks weird. First, it doesn't look like anything Russian or Soviet propaganda used before, making it hard to understand. Second, it's not a Cyrillic, but a foreign looking Latin letter. Which makes its choice as a symbol for the "patriotic" war problematic
Unlike most European alphabets which are based on Latin, Russian alphabet evolved from the Greek, which makes it harder for Westerners to understand. Some of the Russian letters look alike their Western analogues - A, E, K, O, C, T. But Russian "З" (ze) looks nothing like "Z"