6,957 views
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
May 5 46 tweets 16 min read
Prediction

As May 9 is the major symbolic date for the Russian state cult of the "Great Victory", it also serves as a psychological benchmark for Z-war. Thus on May 9 Putin will feel pressure to declare either:

1. A tactical victory
2. A rapid escalation

Let's discuss both🧵 Image
Why would Putin declare a tactical victory? Well, because he can't declare a strategic one. Russian people are not that stupid. What Putin could do is achieve some tactical success and present it as a major symbolic victory which would show that the war is going somewhat okayish Image
What could serve as a symbolic victory showing that Russia hadn't failed its invasion totally by May 9? Most probably, the capture of Mariupol. Siege of Mariupol has been going for two months but the Russians didn't crush the last pocket of resistance on the Azovstal steel plant Image
Mariupol had been bombed and attacked by pro-Russian forces for months with massive casualties. From the military standpoint it might make little sense: isolating this city and cutting its supply lines would be more reasonable. But it has a significant symbolic value
Mariupol is a large urban centre of the Russophone East Ukraine which Russians were supposed to "liberate". And yet, it turned into the centre of resistance. While resistance in Galicia is something Russian worldview would allow for, resistance in "Novorossiya" is unacceptable Image
The very fact that the Russophone troops from the East Ukraine do even resist is absolutely shocking for Kremlin. Furthermore, the two-months-long defence of Mariupol in an absolutely desperate situation made it a sort of Alcazar-like symbol, which should be crushed at any cost
While Russian propaganda focuses on the Azov participation in the defence of Mariupol, portraying them as Nazis, we should consider that for Russian propaganda a "Nazi" is first and foremost a racial or cultural traitor who could be Russian but refused to. "Nazi" = "вырусь" Image
Nazis = those who could Russify but chose not to. Look at the birthplace regions of the Azov commanders

Kharkiv is *the* centre (3). Three commanders r from there including the founder. Next are Kyiv and Poltava (2). Finally, Sumy and Luhansk (1)

Not a single one from the West Image
I'll cover the history of Azov later. For now I'll say that it debunks the Russian myth about "bad Nazi West" controlling "good Russian East" of Ukraine. In fact it is large Russophone cities of the East, especially Kharkiv, that are the main clusters of Ukrainian nationalism Image
While Russians portray Ukrainian nationalism as an essentially Western, Galician phenomenon, in fact Galicia provides more of a cultural standard than the actual leadership. Lviv would be more of a Tuscany of the Ukrainian national movement, while Kharkiv would be its Piedmont Image
This explains much of Russian anger against Ukrainian resisters. As Shahnazarov told:

"Z-letter opposers must understand they won't be spared". Instead they'll get "concentration camps, re-education, sterilisation"

Notice there's no talk of "Nazis", only of "Z-letter opposers"
Journalist Olshansky suggests publicly hanging Azov defenders of Mariupol while making local civilians to watch. And leave them hang for awhile as a horrifying reminder of who's a master here

Russian propagandists lowkey admit that Russian rule can be imposed only through terror Image
That's a Moscow journalist Dmitry Olshansky who calls for public executions while making civilians to watch in order to establish dominance. He isn't some lunatic but rather a member of hereditary cultural establishment of Moscow and a strong advocate for the war with Ukraine Image
There is a strong indication that Putin will try to capture Azovstal by May 9. Why? Because he claimed otherwise. On April 21 he publicly told to Shoigu that soldiers "shouldn't descend into the catacombs" and lose lives. Which means he *will* send them into the catacombs Image
Azovstal tunnels & bunkers were built in the Soviet era when the prospect of a nuclear war looked imminent. They were designed in a way to survive a nuclear strike. (That's why they became a safe heaven for civilians). Those trying to capture Azovstal will suffer heavy casualties Image
Why Putin is so comfortable with losing men who must go into the Azovstal catacombs and die there en masse? Well, cuz he won't send Russians there. He'll send Ukrainians. I strongly suspect that most of Russian casualties in Z-war were not Russians but forcibly drafted Ukrainians Image
Have you ever considered how pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics" recruited their troops? Their armies went through three stages of development:

1. Volunteers
2. Mercenaries
3. Total mobilisation

Now we are on a stage 3. Every male up to 55-60 is a cannon fodder Image
Initially pro-Russian forces in Donbass were comprised from volunteers. Some of them were Russian nationalists or adventurists. Others were members of local administrations and law enforcement. Third were real local volunteers. All were led by a Russian FSB colonel Strelkov Image
With the war going on, DPR and LPR soon ran out of volunteers. Fortunately, in a war-devastated Donbass they could hire fighters cheaply. Where did they take the cash to pay them? Well, Russian gave it. Russians subsidised DPR and LPR puppets to keep the Donbass war going on Image
Russian subsidies allowed to pay a 25 000 rubles salary to everyone who enlisted to fight against Ukraine. In a war-torn Donbass that was often the only job available. Since these people enlisted for cash they were mocked as twenty-five-thousanders referring to their low morale Image
And yet, a mercenary army of twenty-five-thousanders wasn't good enough. First, it's still costly. Why pay anything when you can pay nothing? Besides, with the high casualties they soon ran out of mercenaries, too. Since 2015 they started experimenting with forced mobilisation Image
At this point pro-Russian DPR and LPR authorities are forcing anyone under 55-60 into the army and sending them into the frontline assaults to the heavily fortified Ukrainian positions. Of course, they are being massacred. Listen to Strelkov who started it all
That's how the Donetsk and Luhansk armies look like. Notice their equipment, helmets for example. Russians forced these Ukrainian nationals into their puppets' armies, gave them whatever garbage remained from the Soviet stocks and sent them to die Image
In Vkontakte they discuss mobilised DPR soldiers in Mariupol with obsolete equipment like Mosinka guns originally based on 1891 design and not used in the army since the 1950s:

"I very much hope they are not being sent forward as meat in the first line"

Well, of course they are Image
"Fucking shame, they recruited them as meat, thanks for not giving them forks to fight. They gave them helmets of 1941. You couldn't make up a better anti-ad"

"It's sad when the entire company has Mosinkas"

"That's a shame"

"After a month they could've brought some equipment" Image
"Nazis are being supplied by half a Europe and the US and these guys are fighting with Mosinkas"

"I feel bed for these men. They never fought, don't know anything. They're common workers from a coals mine and they don't even have ammunitions. Damn. Why did they send them there?" Image
They're literally crowfonding the basic equipment for the forcibly mobilised DPR and LPR soldiers. Here for example they managed to crowdfund 3600 rubles to buy them shovels. Notice the reactions of gratitude below the post Image
Russian volunteer who served in the LPR army but then deserted and made it back to Russia is describing "the literal utilisation of the LPR male population"

Forcibly mobilised Ukrainians nationals are being sent to attack Ukrainian positions "naked" without even the body armour Image
As the Donbass war has been going since 2014, Ukrainians had time to build very thorough fortifications. Notice how a Russian TV correspondent is describing an abandoned Ukrainian position. Why would he need to show that? Well, to show why Russian advance goes slower than planned
Watch these mobilised Ukrainian nationals from the Donbass who are being press-ganged into the army by Russians and sent into the frontal assaults as the cannon fodder. This gives some context to how the male population of Donbass is being "recycled" (утилизировать) in Z-war
That's how a mobilisation is proceeding in the Donetsk People's Republic. Males 18-60 can't show up on the street because they will be press ganged immediately. Some hide at home. Others live at their jobs and never leave the building. If you show up outside, you'll be recycled
In Donetsk and Luhansk they are literally catching people on streets and press-ganging them into the army. That's very advantageous. Recycling Ukrainian nationals in a war against Ukraine allows to keep Russian official casualty numbers law. Very smart decision Image
Let me give you an example. A famous pianist from Donetsk was killed in action near Mariupol in April. How did he even get to the army? He was press-ganged and according to the unconfirmed info from the social media, press-ganged by a trick Image
"Philharmonie was cheated!!! they were told to come to "record a nice video, and then go back home... but instead they were all taken in an unknown direction!!"

"We were told the same, they cheated us too. Opera, circus. Donbass"

"He was not a volunteer!!! Like all musicians!" Image
On February 28 Pushilin of the Donetsk People's Republics declared they're stopping the mobilisation. That didn't happen ofc, instead they accelerated it, launching a total mobilisation. Ukrainian nationals are too convenient cannon fodder for Russia Image
Some argue that Russians might be doing the same on newly occupied territories. It may be easy to do. Organise a "council" that will ask to join the DPR or LPR. Then launch total mobilisation. That is a "council" in Rozovskii District of Zaporizhzhia Oblast asking to join the DPR
Russian forces are composed of at least three separate structures: Russian regulars, Chechens and the Donbass armies. Whereas Chechens PR the hardest of all, it is the forcibly mobilised Ukrainian nationals from Donbass who likely suffer the most casualties. They are expendable Image
With the war going on, Russian leadership will be incentivise to scale up Donbass political and socioeconomic model of total mobilisation and impose it all over Russia (North Korea scenario). And yet, there are some problems which make it harder to execute
Why is forcibly mobilised cannon fodder from Donbass so docile? Well, because they can't really do anything. And why can't they? Because they are too far from Russian centers of political power. Should they rebel, they will be crushed by the far better equipped Russian army
Russian regulars will easily suppress any discontent of those conscripts, while those who give orders to those regulars are simply beyond their reach. And why are they beyond their reach? Because they are far away Image
There might be lots of discontent among the Donbass mobilised. But this discontent presents no danger because they are concentrated too far away from the Russian centres of political power. And vice versa, if any substantial mass mobilised force is quartered nearby, that's a risk
Moscow is by far the most important transport hub in Russia. Pretty much all of long distance auto-, air- and most importantly railway routes from south to north, from west to east, etc necessarily have to pass through this city. There are few options to bypass it Image
In case of total mobilisation with a military doctrine that doesn't include an option of total mobilisation and with an infrastructure for total mobilisation dismantled, we'll almost inevitably see a huge concentration of conscripts stuck in Moscow on their way to Ukraine
Total mobilisation presents a political rise not so much because of discontent it creates, as because of possible overconcentration of unmotivated armed people with immediate self-interest in overthrowing regime in immediate proximity to the seat of political power Image
In other words, total mobilisation presents a significant risk for the regime because the flows of the mobilised will necessarily have to go through Moscow and many will be stuck there for a long time. That's why launching it all over the country would be dumb Image
And yet, if mobilisation is declared only in regions immediately bordering Ukraine, such as Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov, then cannon fodder flows don't have to pass through Moscow, thus reducing revolutionary risks dramatically. End of 🧵 Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kamil Galeev

Kamil Galeev Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kamilkazani

4h
Regarding the video with a castration of a Ukrainian POW, comments from the Russian ДШРГ Русич may give some context to the story:

"I have seen up to ten such clips. They're usually published 1-2 years after the events though to make perpetrators more difficult to identify" ImageImage
Русич (Rusich) is a Russian Neonazi group fighting in Ukraine. They're reportedly closely associated with the Wagner mercenary company Image
A Rusich fighter who told he had seen "up to ten such clips" is Evgeny Rasskazov (Topaz). Here you see his post commemorating Hitler's birthday:

"Today is birthday of out comrade who became example for many of us... his Word and Deed inspires us to beat the Ukro-Bolshevik scum" Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 27
Die Fürstenstadt

There was a Soviet joke:

- What is long, green and smells with sausage?
- Moscow-Tver train

Why? Well, under the USSR provincials had to go shopping to Moscow. Their shops had no food, often very literally. Today we'll learn an expression "supply category"🧵
Under the centrally planned economy it was the state which supplied food to the localities. It would assign each city one of four "supply categories" determining how much food there will be on shelves. Moscow was supplied far better than anyone while cities like Tver - horribly
Provincial Soviet cities of the lower supply categories might have no food on the shelves at all. Sometimes very literally. Sometimes they would have only the scraps from the table of the higher status city: like some algae, or the disgusting paste "Ocean"
Read 26 tweets
Jul 25
I find this line of argumentation illustrative of the general state of Russian discourse, whether "patriotic" or "liberal". Everything Turkic occupies the same place in the Russian debates as everything Irish in the Imperial British. The Inner Other and the source of all the evil
Reading the Russian-Ukrainian debates with both sides accusing each other of racial impurity and having too many Steppe admixtures or influences, I noticed that their argumentation is mirroring each other. See this Russian nationalist material for example sputnikipogrom.com/history/15934/…
This mutuality and almost exact symmetry of Russian-Ukrainian accusations reminds me of a brilliant thread on the British rule over the Ionian Isles. Bach then the discourse was similar. Brits and Greeks were constantly accusing each other of Irishness
Read 14 tweets
Jul 24
Russian bureaucracy is *massive*. It's also diverse. Judging from my observations, it's less integrated than let's say the apparatus of the U.S. federal bureaucracy. Different agencies have different cultures and operate by different rules. Avoid sweeping generalisations (not🧵)
I see a very common attitude among the Russian pro-war community. It can be summarised this way:

"We expected dumb and incompetent bureaucrats to destroy our economy. But our glorious army would prevail against all odds. It turned out we were wrong. It's the other way around"
Now much of the Z-community argues that they greatly overestimated the Russian army (and the military apparatus). It's very, very much worse than anyone thought before. But they underestimated the economic bureaucracy. Which is very much better than they could have thought
Read 22 tweets
Jul 23
No. Describing Russian regime as "kleptocracy" is misrepresentation. It's not technically false, just absurdly reductionist. Let's be honest, if Putinism was *entirely* about stealing it would not be able to wage wars or produce armaments. And it produces hella lots of them
Keep in mind that public rhetorics work according to the rhetorical logic. Public position doesn't have to be factually accurate, it has to be rhetorically advantageous for it to work. They talk about "corruption" so much because it's rhetorically advantageous. That's it
When you don't have a positive agenda/vision of future or it's too hideous, you talk about "corruption". Examples - Lukashenko or Yeltsin. "Anti-corruption fight" is an ideal topic for a power hungry politician. Because talking about corruption = avoiding the actual conversation
Read 19 tweets
Jul 23
Kremlin may not have a grey cardinal. But it has a bald engineer. The Kinder Egg is a major architect of Putinism. In 1998 he made Putin the FSB Chief. In 2000s he dismantled the regional autonomy imposing the centralised rule. Now he manages Putin's domestic policy and Ukraine🧵
Sergey Kirienko was born as Sergey Israitel in a mixed Russian-Jewish family. After the divorce his mother changed his surname from father's "Israitel" to her own "Kirienko". That could be a pragmatic decision. A boy with a Slavic name would have better career chances in the USSR
In childhood Kirienko lived with his mom in subtropical Sochi. Here he started the bureaucrat career as a Komsomol manager (комсорг) of his high school class. NB: the role of Komsomol in Soviet to post-Soviet transition is underrated. Komsomol management were its main benefactors
Read 35 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(