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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 22 12 tweets 3 min read
Ukrainian Ministry of Interior reports that a Russian soldier turned his tank over to the Ukrainians. He'll get 10 thousand usd and the opportunity to apply to citizenship. That's great: defection and sabotage among the Russian military should be encouraged and scaled up
1. Increase payouts. They better be offered by rich foreign institutions/people. Slavs don't believe in Slavic financial guarantees

2. Pay for sabotage, destroying equipment

3. Give green corridor to poor warm countries. Life in Ukraine gonna be hard for ex-Russian soldiers
Best of all focus on simple easy acts of sabotage. Turning your tank over is very hard. Destroying a vehicle's engine is simple. Put there wrong oil. Experiment with transmissions - easy ways to destroy it completely and difficult to prove sabotage. Pay for that
Sabotage should be encouraged by:

1) monetary payments
2) corridor to poor warm countries as far as possible

I once had a dialogue in a small Latin American town

- So you're from England...
- I'm actually from Russia
- Yeah, something like that

Great. Perfect place to hide
In addition to that, emigration from Russia should be encouraged. While emigration of oligarchs, etc, is problematic, emigration of regular people is great. Russian agency for electronic communication expects a mass wave of IT emigration in April. It should be encouraged
For this reason I find measures like disabling Russian Visa & Mastercard cards abroad but not within Russia counterproductive. Russians can't use it abroad. So many can't leave as a result and stay home where they can use them. That's stupid. It should be the other way around
Give green corridor to surrendering soldiers. Give green corridor to whomever who's not a part of ruling security-oligarch class to leave Russia. Russia's aging and depopulating. Youngsters are its major bottleneck. Every young male who left is one less male to draft
One thing to understand about Russian soldiers. I watched many videos with captured conscripts. Countryside, small towns, provincial cities. For the entire time I saw 1 (one) from Moscow. It's the army of the poor. They can be bought very cheaply if you just try
Ideas with giving green cards and EU residence permits are not bad. Anecdotally: in a provincial Russian office they discussed mobilisation and wanted to ascertain - is it true that you can get Lithuanian residence just for surrender? Many potential draftees are already wondering
You can't organise a refuge in the West quickly. It's procedural & needs time. Meanwhile to sabotage Russian capacity, green corridor should be given ASAP, better this week. If you pay for sabotage, active hustlers can easily earn cash to start a new life in Colombia or Argentina
Army is an industry. And industrial processes rely on trust. They work because almost no one of those involved is actively trying to disrupt them. 1% of active hustlers trying to enrich via sabotage will be enough to decrease fighting capacity significantly. 3% will destroy it
Cooperation with Russian soldiers can be organised very easily. But it can't be done via moral preaching, only through incentives and leverage. Incentivize them financially and offer green corridor to the warm countries where their payouts will have big purchasing power. End of🧵

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More from @kamilkazani

Mar 24
How Z propaganda looks?

That's an art from a pro-Russian, pro-Z telegram channel. Double crossed sign says "люди" (humans), implying Z-soldiers are not. That's how Russian propaganda portrays its own soldiers. Late Putinism has very morbid, necrophilic vibes Image
Some didn't believe it's actually pro-Russian Z art. That's understandable. Everything unusual is dismissed as false. People judge reliability of info they get according to their common sense which is nothing more than a set of (wrong) assumptions of how this world works
Here is a link to a Z-channel where you can find a lot of examples of late Putinist aesthetics t.me/russia_sof
Read 13 tweets
Mar 23
Many argued that Europe can't stop buying Russian oil and gas and thus will continue funding Russian war machine. Well, it seems problem solved itself. Today Putin declared he'll sell Russian gas to unfriendly countries only for rubles Image
That makes position of those advocating for continuing this import much weaker. Just yesterday if you wanted to continue buying Russian gas you could simply keep status quo, which is easy procedure-wise. But now you'll have to abandon it and make active effort to keep import
Just yesterday those advocating for keeping the gas import from Russia had a high ground in a short term perspective. They could sabotage the efforts of those wanting to stop it while Russia keeps fighting. But now it's the opposite
Read 6 tweets
Mar 23
The minority factor in Russian army is vastly underrated when discussing the course of Ukrainian war. Firstly, ethnic minorities are not so much a minority there. Judging from the casualty lists, minorities are wildly overrepresented on the battlefields as the cannon fodder🧵 Image
We don't have aggregated data for the entire Russian army. But we can get some idea of who fights in Ukraine from this list of wounded Russian soldiers lying in Rostov hospital. More than half are clearly Dagestani. Magomed (Muhammad) - the most common name in the list of wounded Image
It makes total sense. As you see almost all Russian regions with high fertility are either ethnic republics or ethnic autonomous okrugs. Caucasians and Siberian natives reproduce, providing a lot of draftable males. Plus they are mostly poor so can be easily lured into the army Image
Read 26 tweets
Mar 21
Cops as the true revolutionary class

I see two scenarios for the Russian Federation: positive and negative. Positive scenario would be the West maximising systemic shock on Russian economy. Its paralysis and following collapse will give the West leverage for negotiations🧵
Negotiations shouldn't be held with Putin, that's insane. He ain't stupid and knows there's no way back. They shouldn't be held with "Russian people". The idea of them rising up to overthrow Putin is even crazier, that's a Protestant moral crusade disguised as the policy making
Negotiations shouldn't be held with the army. Russian army is emasculated. It's low in dominance hierarchy, has zero respect, autonomy or capacity for decision making. Every regime since 1917 aimed to castrate the army so it wouldn't be a threat. Putin did it most successfully
Read 37 tweets
Mar 20
Military casualties in Ukraine and the end of Russia as we know it

Let's look on the list of killed Russian generals:

Major-General Suhovetsky
Major-General Gerasimov
Major-General Kolesnikov
Major-General Mityayev
Lieutenant-General Mordvichev
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)🧵
Not counting a Chechen general Tushaev, who's an officer of Kadyrov's personal army, Mordvichev was the highest ranked Russian general killed so far. He was a commander of 8th Guard Army of the Southern Military District (=close to Ukraine)
Groups of Russian military in social media look like a never-ending list of necrologies. Consider this group of Russian airborne VDV. A captain, a colonel-lieutenant, first lieutenant, general-major are all dead. Notice they're listing only officers, including high ranked ones
Read 30 tweets
Mar 19
Why Russia can't win against the West

Russia is often portrayed as the invincible military power. And yet, this reputation is based on two wars - Napoleonic and WWII. In both cases Russia won only thanks to the alliance allied with *the* leading economic powerhouse of that era🧵
Napoleonic Wars were won only because of the Russian alliance with the UK. WWII - only because of the alliance with the US. In both cases the leading economic, industrial and technological power of the age supported Russia, giving it almost unlimited credit and supply line
Let's start with the WWII. Early Bolsheviks were absolutely fascinated by America and its industrial power. The last movie Vladimir Lenin watched before his death was the video recording from the Ford assembly lines in Detroit. They dreamed of emulating the American industrialism
Read 52 tweets

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