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There is a lot to unpack from this video & for the purposes of this thread.

The assumption is we are looking at a timely #Severodonetsk counterattack video. Short form: The Russian Army has run out of trained infantry, which is what "Culminating Point" means. 1/ twitter.com/TheDeadDistric

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9:56 PM · Jun 4, 2022Twitter Web App

Replying to

Ukraine has inflicted on the order of 79,000 Russian KIA & WIA to date. Of the 190,000 Russian troops that invaded only between 10% & 20% are dismounted infantry, most likely on the lower end due to Russian "Ghost Troops" corruption. What is 10% of 190,000? 2/

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It's 19,000, and 20% is 38,000. Russia has not only burned through all its infantry. It has burned through all the LNR infantry as well. Which is why bolt-action rifle armed DNR troops were sent to both Mariupol and now Severodonetsk in Luhansk. They & the Chechen 3/

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National Guard units were the last reserves of Russian infantry in all of Ukraine. The DNR is the armed forces of one of Russia's two puppet "Separatist Republics." The fiction of that status is the DNR fighting in #Severodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast in lieu Russian or LNR forces 4/

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Those two DNR prisoners tell you a lot by a look. They have no body armor of any kind, not even Afghanistan era anti-fragment vests. They have no tactical web gear. They have no helmets. All these might have been taken from them, but one of the prisoners still 5/

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...having a belt and the small arms in the background argue they didn't have any for the UA to take away. Note as well both DNR soldiers had white cloth tied around both arms and a leg as visual 'identification friend or foe' for infantry close combat. 6/

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There are videos of Ukrainian ground forces using flag patches and yellow cloth or tape for the same purpose. So, what does this tell us in context? Committing DNR infantry in close combat in #Severodonetsk was lunacy born of complete utter desperation. 7/

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DNR infantry are armed with bolt action rifles (see video below). Ukrainian infantry has nothing but assault rifles. The Ukrainian Foreign Legion counterattack in #Severodonetsk succeeded in large part because 8/

Quote Tweet

ZOKA

@200_zoka

· May 13

Amazes me that they don’t give some older AK to reservists

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...they hit bolt-action rifle armed DNR infantry that had no radios to call down Russian or their own artillery. Motivated Ukrainian foreign military volunteers with assault rifles versus impressed DNR conscripts with bolt-action rifles was only going to go one way, & did. 9/

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The Western intelligence agencies who were thinking of the Russian 1km a day advances in the Donbas as "Russian Offensives" were utterly wrong. I'm looking at you, UK MoD. They were Ukrainian 'shaping operations' - a Trap - intended to kill the last available 10/

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...Russian reserve of dismounted infantry in the Ukrainian theater. Right now 90% of living Russian Army & LNR infantry are wounded in Belarus, Donbas & Russian hospitals. DNR & Chechen infantry are now headed to mobile crematoria or hospitals thanks to the fighting 11/

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...in #Severodonetsk. Disproportionate infantry losses in combat are a phenomena that is literally centuries old. Trevor Dupuy wrote about it here: Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War (Falls Church, VA: NOVA Publications, 1995) 12/

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A summary blog post at the Dupuy Institute blog about modern war loss rates is at the following link: 13/

dupuyinstitute.org

Trevor N. Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities

Trevor N. Dupuy developed some hypotheses about casualty rates in combat in the process of quantifying the effects of surprise and relative combat effectiveness.[1] After testing these hypotheses a…

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No competent Western intelligence agency would have missed the implications of the total Russian casualties on the remaining availability & quality of Russian infantry in Ukraine. This is quite literally "Military Intelligence 101." 14/

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I strongly suggest that the UK MoD mid-level intelligence types avail themselves of that unofficial back channel to the Monarchy that everyone pretends doesn't exist, but knows it does, to explain to the Queen what has been going down with UK's Ukrainian intelligence. 15/

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Unfortunately, there are no similar institutions in Western nations without monarchies to fix this intelligence problem elsewhere. 🤦‍♂️

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16/End

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Replying to

Let’s hope you are correct, I remain suspicious that the Ukrainians are just as played out as the Russians

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Richard Greenwood

Remembering from earlier discussions, Ukraine has up to 600k former conscripts who saw action in Donbas since 2014. They may not have logistics and equipment to suppoet them all at the front, bit if they have good rotation then they'll be fresher than many Russian counterparts.

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#IStandWithUkraine

Replying to

are you essentially saying that we’re going to see a collapse of RuAF forces soon?

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Only a question of time... Same situation presently in Kherson... And Russians themselves talking about it...

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nadinbrzezinski

@nadinbrzezinski

Replying to

Here, this will be of interest to you as well silent mobilization. They did indeed throw the last. Also, DPR/LPR conscripts we’re wearing red, not white…telling.

Оперативний ЗСУ

Росія навчить тебе, як «родіну любіть, синок! Не словами, а ділом Деякі дуже хоробрі російські ЗМІ повідомляють, що військкомати та поліція почали виявляти призовників, які ще не отримали повістки. У...

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Why?

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Replying to

I still think RU is going to make the rubble bounce as long as they can. Do you think that window is closing?

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Looks like shelling/rocket attacks is soon going to be all that RUS has left. Navy can't do much, and air isn't doing much.

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@customer_rough

Replying to

We in Britain aren't as well organized as you seem to think

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Entropy is the main rule of the Universe. But divide your organization by 5, multiply the carelessness and corruption by 10... and you may get some idea of what's happening in r*ssia

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